Randwick Racing Tips for Saturday, July 22nd

Racing comes to us from Royal Randwick in Sydney this weekend where we have nine races to look at. The track is currently rated a Soft 5 but there is sunny conditions forecast and so the track should eventually reach a Good 4.

We have betting tips and comments for every race on the program below.

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Randwick Racing Tips for Saturday, 22nd of July

Race 1

Small field but a very competitive start to the day with every runner in the race in with a chance. Following the money for the Waller horse COLOSIMO who debuts for the stable after starting her career up in Queensland. She's won two from three starts so far and comes into this race with two trial wins under her belt. Bowman takes the ride and the early money is certainly an indicator that she is ready to fire here around the $4.40 mark. ASSIMILATE is the danger for me after a solid debut win at Hawkesbury, where GRESHAM ran 2nd. The inside draw is a big plus here and he should be very competitive. The outsider of the field is GRETZKY at $10 which I think is a pretty good price. Faces a hot field on debut here but he's had two very, very quiet trials coming into this (beaten 1.8 and 2.1L) and has been specked early in betting. I would recommend having something on him. Not a very confident start to the day.

TIP: Colosimo

Race 2

Once again this is SUNCRAZE's race to lose. he has run six straight 2nds after his win on debut and went down last start at odds on. He's a bit better priced today than what he was last start, but there's a few key differences today. He gets the blinkers on for the first time which seems to be exactly what he needs, and Corey Brown has come out and said he thinks it's a big positive that he's drawn outside of horses in barrier 10. We backed NIC'S VENDETTA last start at $10 and he just clung on to beat Suncraze who motored home on the rail. Suncraze gets a weight swing today and the 1400m looks to suit him better, but at $2.40 you can leave me out of backing him. I'd much rather be on Nic's Vendetta at $8.50 - he didn't get everything his way last start either. He had to cart the field up behind the runaway leader and was still brave enough to cling on despite doing the donkey work. If he gets a bit of a better run from barrier 6 today there's no reason he won't be in the finish again. Another horse I want to have something on is SALESMAN at $9. He ran home nearly as well as Suncraze last start and he too gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Nic's Vendetta. Has won over 1400m and has won his only start when third up from a spell. Draws the inside gate, McEvoy rides and can run well once again. Suncraze really should be winning this, but I'd rather have a crack at some of the value on offer.

TIP: Nic's Vendetta / Salesman EW

Race 3

Quite a competitive race once again. Pretty keen on the odds available for MEMES here. She is in terrific form and drops back to 1100m which I think suits her better than the 1200m of last start. She gets a 1kg weight swing on Magic Alibi for a 0.1L defeat, will box seat from barrier 1, is undefeated at Rosehill and she won her last run on a Good track by over 2 lengths so I don't see that being a problem either. She's had three weeks since her last run and I think she has plenty of things in her favour here so the $4.20 on offer is very appealing. We may even get better on the day the way the market is shaping. MAGIC ALIBI ran her down last start to win by a nose, btu he carries 2kg extra today and most importantly, he's never placed from three starts when third up from a spell. I'll be taking him on here. CLIPPER could be the biggest danger. She won two Highway Handicaps with ease before going to Melbourne and running a close up 3rd in stronger company. No surprises to see her win but this is much tougher company than what she was beating a few starts ago. I could make a case for most horses in this race so a small win bet on Memes will do me.

TIP: Memes

Race 4

One of the best bets on the card here for me with SUPER TOO and I'll be snapping up the $2.70 on offer. This filly returns from a 203 day spell and she is undefeated first up from a spell. She's also undefeated over the 1000m from three attempts, and she's won two trials leading into this, the latest of which was by 11 lengths! Last prep she ran 4th in Listed company, beaten 0.4L, before running 2nd in Group 3 company to Spright. With the claim she gets in very well for this grade with 55.5kg and from barrier 2 she should go straight to the front and be extremely hard to run down. My only slight query is the fact there are three clear leaders in the race but she is the class runner and the money suggests she is ready to go here. STAR CROSSED will likely be the winner if she has any chinks in her armour, and I think LEGERITY could be the value here at $16. She did nothing first up on the heavy track, but she always needs her first up run. She's only ever placed once from five starts first up, but she's won one of her two starts second up so expect sharp improvement. Blinkers on first time and draws well.

TIP: Super Too (Best Bet) / Legerity EW

Race 5

Really keen on SPENDING TO WIN here. Did well first up to finish as close as he did after travelling three wide the trip with 59.5kg over 1100m. Steps up to 1200m, gets in with just 57.5kg and draws barrier 4 so should get a lovely run for Hugh Bowman. There were no excuses for those that finished behind him last start such as PARLAY VOUS. Second up last prep Spending To Win ran 2nd in Listed company behind Tactical Advantage. Everything in his favour here so locking in $2.25. The main dangers could be AQUATIC and CHATUCHAK.

TIP: Spending To Win

Race 6

Very tricky race to assess but I keep coming back to one horse and that's SOUND PROPOSITION. This horse bolted in at his Australian debut on heavy ground over 1600m here, winning by 2.3L. He was a Group 1 winner over 1600m in April last year, and ran 3rd in a Group 1 over 2000m in March this year, so he really should be going on to better races than this. Last start he beat Liapari by 2.8L on the Heavy ground, and both horses rise 3.5kg in weight here. Importantly, Sound Proposition's record suggests he's probably better on good ground. I don't really see the wide barrier being much of an issue given he sat outside the leader last start and should be able to do so once again. Both LIAPARI and SO WILLI are genuine queries over 1800m, but as aforementioned, Sound Proposition is Group 1 placed over 2000m so the 1800m should really play into his hands here. I'd much rather be backing him over the 1800m based on last start than Liapari or So Willi, so I'm willing to take the $4 on offer about a Group 1 winner racing in open company. MAN OF HIS WORD continues to race consistently and steps up to the 1800m for the first time here. He can fill a placing here, if not win. LOYALTY MAN is the query runner for mine. He's had three runs in Melbourne and now steps up to 1800m which is a distance he's placed at. Good ground is the key for him here but no surprises to see him win. LOOPHOLE the blowout.

TIP: Sound Proposition

Race 7

Another tough race to assess. I am pretty keen to take on FELINES here based on the fact she carries 60.5kg and has some ordinary recent form but nothing particular stands out here. I have landed on RELDAS who makes the trip from Melbourne for Robert Smerdon. His run three starts ago was very good behind Bassett who then went on to win better races, and his run two starts ago at Morphettville in Group 3 company was outstanding (beaten 0.1L). Completely forget his last start when he was three wide the trip over 1200m at Moonee Valley. He's had a decent little break since that race, and if he reproduces the form he showed previous to that, he should give this a real shake around $5.50. I wouldn't be dismissing THAT'S A GOOD IDEA who is also at the $5.50 mark. He resumes from a spell here after running 2nd to Felines in the Hawkesbury Gold Rush over this distance. He gets a 1kg swing for a 0.6L defeat that day, and has had the benefit of a break compared to Felines who has raced two more times for no result. Adding to that, Felines is 0/3 over track and distance. HIGHLY GEARED next best with no weight on his back. Backing Reldas with something also on That's A Good Idea.

TIP: Reldas

Race 8

KINGS OF LEON comes up the short priced favourite here after scratchings on the back of a solid win over 1100m at Warwick Farm. He beat Spending To Win on that occasion and I expect that horse to come out and win an earlier race so the form is reasonably sound. However, at $2.25 you can leave me out. He'll likely settle somewhere near the back from barrier 10 and I'd prefer to be on a couple at slightly better odds. He's a live chance in the race and may well win but at that price I can't have him. BOLERO KING goes on top for me. He's had two runs back from a 467 day spell so should really be peaking at his third run back here. He won his only previous start when third up from a spell (which was over the talented Ravi) and he had to work early last start before eventually running 2nd to Torpenhow. From the good draw in barrier 6 here he won't have to do much work at all, and there looks to be minimal speed in the race, so if he gets a comfortable time of it, he can win. Back onto a Good track is also a big plus, as is Kerrin McEoy taking over from the apprentice. I think LAST WITNESS is the value here. he has a tremendous record at the distance having only missed a place once from 8 starts over 1100m. He comes into this third up and is ready to win. More confident on a wet track but at $10 he looks decent odds. TORPENHOW next best.

TIP: Bolero King / Last Witness EW

Race 9

There's three horses that caught my eye when going through the form here and two at really good odds. STEYNE comes up favourite and chases his fifth straight win here. He won as our best bet at Canterbury last start carryiong 60kg over the 1600m and steps up to Saturday grade here. In doing so he drops to 54.5kg but draws perfectly in barrier 6 which should allow him to sit midfield or better. He looks a very prgressive type and is in the right stable to win here. $3.80 is a reasonable price - he has to improve but he looks an exciting horse and I think he can do so. Two at big odds I'm really keen to have something on are MURAQABA and BRAZEN. Muraqaba resumes from a 263 day spell here. He's had two trials leading into this, both underwhelming, but I wouldn't be put off by that. First of all, his first up record is outstanding with two wins and a second from three starts. Last prep he had two trials that were both underwhelming, but he came out and won first up in BM78 grade over 1400m here despite that. So there are definite similarities here. He draws well in 7 and gets the blinkers on for the first time, so at $18 he represents some great value. The other is BRAZEN who comes into this second up. The form guide will tell you that first up he finished 14th of 15 over 1300m at Warwick Far, but he wasn't tested at all and went to the line under a hold. His second up record is very good with two wins from three starts, and last prep he finished out of the placings first up before winning second up. Granted, he was favourite on that occasion, but he's gone on to race against better horses than these and deserves respect at $34. Going with Steyne and Muraqaba but I'll definitely be having something on Brazen.

TIP: Steyne / Muraqaba EW (Best Value)

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