Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday, August 18th, featuring the Group 1 Winx Stakes!
We have nine races on a Good track with the rail out 7m.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. You can also listen to Episode 47 of the Before You Bet Podcast below, where Tim previews all the feature races at both Caulfield and Randwick!
ROYAL RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Kaonic
Best Value: Race 3 #1 Burradoo
RACE 1
Big field for the Highway Handicap to open the day and even though these aren’t often races I’m keen to bet heavily into, I do think there’s two or three horses of interest at decent prices. The favourite (14) Panzerfaust has been well-backed early and although he’s got no weight on his back, a good draw and Kerrin mcEvoy aboard, I’m keen to take him on. This stable has really been struggling lately and the horse has just one maiden win at Scone to his name. He went down at Muswellbrook last start and as I often say, the best form for these Highway races is often other Highways. (6) Wallander was instructed to lead last start and did it all the way to win the Highway over 1500m at Rosehill. Three starts ago he broke his maiden by 5L, so if you take out the failure at Grafton (where he started even money favourite), his form looks pretty solid for this. $6.00 seems reasonable odds. (3) Fui San looks a big price at $12. He’s started in six Highway Handicaps and has one win, three placings and a 4th to his name. The one he won was over this track and distance. Third up today, ready to peak and should roll forward from the wide gate. (1) Cisco Bay was a touch luckless last start when he started a $5 chance in a Highway and he also pulled up 1/5 lame. Could bounce back here. Main bets will be Wallander and Fui San.
Value: (3) Fui San $12 Sportsbet
RACE 2
Another Saturday, another staying race in Sydney which is a complete lottery. We’ve got five Waller runners engaged here and as always, any of them could win this – you never really know which one will turn up. I was keen to take on (8) Raqeeq last start as he stepped up from 2000m to 2400m which is a difficult task. With that 2400m run under his belt, he should be better prepared for the trip today. He’s going to get a long way back with the barrier but he’s probably worth another chance today given the better set up. (5) Vaucluse Bay went close last start and he’s another that’s likely to be better off with that 2400m run under his belt. He actually beat Raqeeq two starts ago so there probably shouldn’t be such a big difference in price between the two. Bowman sticks with (7) Follow Suit who didn’t handle the three-day back up last start. He’s had two weeks between runs now and might just be able to bounce back to the form he showed leading into last start.
Value: (5) Vaucluse Bay $6.50 Sportsbet
RACE 3
This isn’t a race I’m very keen to bet into but I’ll have something small on (1) Burradoo at $20. I thought his run first up over this track and distance was solid considering he’s had six first up runs for zero placings. He finished midfield and the winner was very impressive and surely destined for much better races, so it looks a strong race that he’s come out of. Although his first up record is terrible, his second up record is outstanding, with three wins and a 2nd from five starts, including a win at this track and distance last prep. Barrier 1 isn’t ideal for him as he tends to get back, and he des have 3kg apprentice Billy Owen on board, but that’s why we’re getting a bigger price about him.
RACE 4
There are bigger races down the line for (3) Oohood but she does look very well suited here. She’ll be looking to break her maiden tag after six placings from six starts, including very narrow defeats in the Golden Slipper and Sires’ Produce Stakes in the Autumn. If she can bring that form to the races today, she’ll be very hard to hold out. I think $2.25 is short enough though given she is still yet to win a race and there is always a little query over how these good two-year-olds return in their three-year-old year. She’s also going to get a long way back from barrier 9. (1) Fiesta and (4) Outback Barbie filled the placings behind the talented Pure Elation in the G3 Percy Sykes Stakes back in April and both return from a spell here. Hard to split them. (6) Futooh has a win at this track and distance to her name and has trialled very nicely on two occasions leading into this. Drawn to get the run of the race but the little query is whether she might be better over further than this. (2) Meryl won first up in Brisbane last campaign and could be the blowout at $46.
RACE 5
Competitive race. I’m a touch interested in (2) Irukandji first up here, although he may be looking for 1400m+. He ran 2nd first up last prep over 1000m before going on to win in Group 3 company over 1400m. Whether he is sharp enough first up at 1200m is an obvious query but he’ll put himself up on the speed and he’s shown in the past he can fight hard. At $15 he might be worth an each way ticket. (9) Danawi was a huge drifter first up over this track and distance and was gunned down right on the line by (6) Military Zone. Military Zone was second up in that race and that may have been the telling factor, so Danawi should be able to turn the tables today with that run under his belt. (7) Smart Elissim brings Melbourne form to the race which is hard to line up. Backing both Danawi and Irukandji but not heavily.
Also backing: (9) Danawi $5.00 Sportsbet
RACE 6
The Group 1 Winx Stakes is all about (10) Winx obviously. (7) Kementari adds some interest to the race and will likely run 2nd. If you’re looking for a pure place bet that is actually at a backable price, (9) D’Argento at $2.35 to run a drum looks a decent option. He’s undefeated first up and was only a length off Kementari over 1400m last prep. He’s a serious horse destined for more Group 1 wins and it wouldn’t shock me to see him motoring into a place here. $4.20 about (11) Unforgotten isn’t the worst bet either.
(9) D'Argento to place
$2.35
RACE 7
(1) Le Romain has a couple of things against him here but he’s also got a massive class edge on a number of these horses. He’s normally better with one or two runs under his belt but he’s still normally very competitive first up and he’s got a good record at this track and distance. It’s important to note that he normally resumes against much better horses than what he faces today, so despite carrying significantly more weight than his opposition, his class might just get him over the line. We could look at the $2.20 on offer and think it’s poisonous odds but he might also come out and win easily. It’s a hard one to be confident on either way. (2) Takedown might represent a bit of value at $16. On his best form, he’d probably win this, but he hasn’t shown that for a very long time now. His first up run was full of excuses though – he was caught wide throughout and dropped out to finish second last. That was a strong race and he gets in well at the weights here as a Group 1 winner. He’s also drawn very well so it’d be no surprise to see him run a big race. (7) Siege Of Quebec has been well backed to beat Le Romain. He’s also first up and although he won first up last prep, he was hardly convincing over 1100m and only faced four rivals. He comes up against a serious horse today and he’d want to improve on what he showed last prep. (9) Condor Heroes has the fitness edge, while (3) Boss Lane could be the blowout.
Value: (2) Takedown $16 Sportsbet
RACE 8
Really uninspiring Group 3 contest here and there’s nothing that really stands out here. (10) Smart Amelia has returned in good form this campaign for the new stable and could be a reasonable each way bet given she’s third up from a spell and down in weight. She’s drawn wide so will be coming from a long way back but she came from a long way back and went close last start with 58kg. (9) Sharpness will get a great run in the race from barrier 5 and comes off consecutive wins. The quality of the race she won in Melbourne was actually quite good so with the light weight it wouldn’t surprise to see her run a good race. (8) Insensata is also third up but the jockey change of Jason Collett to Kathy O’Hara is a big negative. (2) I Am Coldplay is on debut in Australia for new trainer Chris Waller. She’s a two-time Group 2 winner over in New Zealand and went close behind Lizzie L’amour over 1400m last preparation. That form is good enough to win this so keep a very close eye on the market, because if she is solid then she’ll go very close. Happy to back Smart Amelia ($7), Sharpness ($11) and I Am Coldplay ($6.50).\
RACE 9
Very keen on (5) Kaonic who looks the best bet of the day at Randwick by some distance. There were huge wraps on this horse earlier in his career but he didn’t come up in the Autumn. He returned with a super win first up over this track and distance, when the market told us he might be back to his best. Bowman takes over today and based on that first up win and the talent we know he has, he should prove very hard to beat again today. I think $3.00 is a pretty decent price. (3) Souchez was good first up and should be very competitive second up today. (7) The Pinnacle has run 2nd in all three first up runs of her career and looks a value chance at $19 despite the wide barrier. Stablemate (8) Onslaught didn’t have a great deal go right when he finished second last behind Kaonic last start. Down in weight and better drawn so can bounce back.
