Day 1 of The Championships is upon us and despite the wild weather in Sydney it is sure to be a cracker day of racing! The track will once again be very Heavy so we'll be keeping an eye out for the wet trackers and the carnival has been dishing up plenty of value so far so let's hope we snag a few during the day.
Comments and betting tips for every day below!
THE CHAMPIONSHIPS DAY 1 RACING TIPS
Race 1
Tough race to start the day. Waller was suggesting that FROM WITHIN will be scratched and saved for the Percy Sykes next week if the track was too heavy and I think that'll be the case with the rain that's fallen. That leaves me to side with CONDOR HEROES, albeit not confidently. He was runner-up in the Breeder's Plate before returning with a solid win first up. Importantly, that was on Heavy ground and his time over the 1100m was better than Sheikha's. ALIZEE is the one I'm most wary of. She produced a much better run behind Tulip last start and Tulip ran enormously in the Slipper after covering ground. Not sure Heavy ground is Alizee's go but her run on the Soft ground was good enough for her to win this. The value could be the first starter for Gerald Ryan DISSOLUTION. He has had two nice trials leading into this, both on heavy ground, and his latest was pretty impressive to the eye. Not sure about the strength of it but he's bred to love the wet and has McEvoy on board which is a strong booking. Go well at 20/1.
Tip: Condor Heroes / Dissolution EW
Race 2
Only two I'm really interested in here. THEANSWERMYFRIEND absolutely bolted home last start to continue his hot streak of form. The times he's been running have been just as impressive as he has been to the eye. Two starts ago he was beaten by Mr Sneaky (who was backed off the map on the day) but he had to do a bit of work in the run and gets a 2kg swing here. He's never run on Heavy, but interestingly, he's closely related to Mr Sneaky who has placed on heavy ground. They're both bred by High Chapparal out of Danehill mares. EUSEBIO has gone from strength to strength this prep and his win last start in the Canberra Guineas was very good. He weaved between runners and burst through to win by 2 lengths. He's never run from Heavy but he has placed on Soft. Should go well. The value could be SCREAMAAR who had absolutely no luck in the Mornington Guineas last start after breaking his maiden on Soft ground two starts ago.
Tip: Theanswermyfriend
Race 3
Interesting race. I'd be pretty keen on BIG DUKE here but he rises 4kg from 54kg to 58kg from his last start win.However, he's flying and it's hard to knock his form heading into this so it wouldn't surprise me to see him win. At the odds, I'll be backing ALOFT who won over 1900m at Flemington last start. One thing is for sure, when Team Williams bring a horse to Sydney, they bring them to win. We saw Assign win the other week, Our Century beat Big Duke before losing on protest, and this is the only horse they've brought this week. He's won up to 3200m so the distance is no issue, it's just whether he likes the heavy track. POLARISATION is the big watch in the race for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. We saw the damage he did when he brought his horses over in the Spring, and although this horse's form isn't flash, he's obviously been brought here for a reason. He's never run on Heavy ground, but has three wins and a second from four starts on Soft! He's running in this to qualify for the Sydney Cup, so that's a good lead. I think KINEMA is ready to do something. after three runs back. Up to a distance he can win at now so keep him safe.
Tip: Aloft / Polarisation EW
Race 4
This could be an absolute lottery if the track is heavy. On a good track, PERFECT DARE would have a leg on the rest of these, but on a Heavy track, I just have to take on the two favourites here. Perfect Dare has had one run on wet ground and was unplaced (albeit her form wasn't great at the time) but she's also bred by Fastnet Rock which is a worry for me. Pumpkin Pie was beaten 14 lengths on heavy ground two starts ago, and although she's been racing in far superior company than this, I'm not convinced she'll be at her best on heavy. Put simply, I'm not confident enough to back either at the price so I'd prefer to back a couple at longer odds that should get through the wet. One of those is CAERLESS CHOICE who is undefeated from four starts. He won first up from a spell over 1400m in the Scone heat which was the strongest of them all, and it was on a heavy track. To win first up over 1400m is a good effort, and he's had a good trial since that win too. He will be better off fitness-wise here, draws well and has heavy track form on the board. I think he's a good bet at $9. The other at a longer price I'm interested in is GALAXY WARRIOR who comes into this third up from a spell. He's undefeated in two previous third up runs, and has two wins on Soft ground as well as a 2nd placing on heavy, Has a wide draw but looks ready to peak and could run a big race at $18.
Tip: Caerless Choice EW / Galaxy Warrior EW
Race 5
Big field of 18 set to line up here but I have no idea how they're meant to beat RAIMENT who looks one of the best bets of the day. She absolutely belted them first up and O'Shea even said she had room for improvement going into that run so if she has taken improvement she will be incredibly hard to beat here. Undefeated on heavy ground, has never finished outside the top 2 over 1200m from five starts, and the $2.50 still available looks acceptable still. SAMANTHA, ZUMBELINA, INVINCIBELLA and EXOCET could be ones to watch.
Tip: Raiment (best bet)
Race 6
The first of the Group 1s and a good field assembled too. Found it tough to separate a few but going to stick with TULIP from the good draw after she fought on bravely to finish 3rd in the Slipper despite being 5 wide the entire trip. She did incredibly well to finish as close as she did and from barrier 2 she should be able to settle midfield and do a stack less work than last start. I think they'll go back with FROLIC once again from the wide barrier and if Tulip has a few lengths head start without doing much worse then she could be tough to catch. In saying that, Frolic has been a flashing light in her past couple of starts after firstly beating She Will Reign before charging home along the rail from last on the turn in the Slipper. She's undefeated at the track and has 1400m written all over her so it would be no surprise to see her win. INVADER chased home Gunnison last start who might have been a big chance in this if he were running. That was on a heavy 9 so there's no concerns about the track and from the good draw he should also get a good run in midfield. The value could be the NZ Group 1 winner SUMMER PASSAGE who steps up to 1400m after succeeding over the 1200m. He's bred to love the wet ground and don't take any notice of Blake Shinn jumping off - Zac Purton was booked to ride her in the NZ Group 1 but was ill and forfeited the ride. We know how strong the NZ form is when they come to Sydney so keep him safe at double figure odds.
Tip: Tulip
Race 7
The BMW Australian Derby here over 2400m and there's really only two horses I'm interested in. The first is GINGERNUTS and I think he's up there with the best bets of the day too.He dropped back from the 2400m to the 2000m last start and absolutely smoked them in the Rosehill Guineas so stepping back up to 2400m here should be no issue at all. If anything, it should probably see him improve. Two starts ago he beat Jon Snow by 2.5L and Jon Snow then came out and bolted in last week. I do think the field Jon Snow beat was considerably weaker than the field Gingernuts beat two weeks ago and I find it hard to see him turning the tables today. INFERENCE is the main danger for mine. He was simply left with too much to do last start and Gingernuts had the head start on him which proved enough for him to hold. Inference is crying out for this trip and his run in the VRC Derby last prep suggests as much. From the better draw you'd hope to see him a bit closer today but I think they'll all struggle to hold out Gingernuts.
Tip: Gingernuts
Race 8
Been waiting for this race all week! I tweeted out during the week that the two to be backing were RUSSIAN REVOLUTION and MALAGUERRA and nothing has changed. The $8 for Russian Revolution is long gone but I still think he's a good bet here, despite getting to about his right price now. He did absolutely everything wrong first up before the race but his natural ability got him the win in The Galaxy. Jungle Edge has come out of that race and bolted in, so the form has stood up. He should be really well prepared for this race second up, and if he behaves himself pre-race, look out! Heavy ground no problem, no real concerns with the wide draw and the tempo looks to suit him the best. Very hard to beat here! MALAGUERRA still looks over the odds to me and there's still as much as $13 available for him. He failed with the step up to 1400m last start but when he's kept fresh and kept to the sprinting distances, he is a serious horse. He's won 5 from 6 when fresh, has won 6 from 9 at this distance, and provided he handles the heavy track, I rate him a massive chance here, especially from the draw and with the expected tempo. Happy to risk CHAUTAUQUA here. He's 1500m back to 1200m and I'm just not convinced he's at his best. If he's not at his best I find it hard to see him winning this, and he needs a solidly run race which I'm not sure he'll get. Expect Spieth to be scratched and if Astern runs I don't think he'll be fit enough to beat this lot on a heavy track.
Tip: Russian Revolution / Malaguerra EW (best value)
Race 9
Pretty happy to see the money come for REDKIRK WARRIOR who I would be very, very keen on if it were a Good track. The obvious query, and a big one at that, is the Heavy track for this horse, but I genuinely think he could be a star in Australia. He was bound to be a star in HK but his feet troubles saw him retired early, and his win first up over 1200m in the Newmarket proved just what he can do on his day. The scary thing is, he is much better suited up to 1600m, with three of his five wins coming around this distance. He comes into this second up where he is undefeated from three starts and as David Hayes said during the week, he is a weight-for-age horse carrying a handicap weight with just 53kg. He'll need a good ride from barrier 15, but if he handles the track, he wins in my opinion. $8 a good enough price to find out. LE ROMAIN will be thereabouts at the finish. He's won two of his three starts this prep and the one he lost was behind a handy horse called Winx. Handles the heavy, loves the distance, loves the track, draws well, has Bowman on board and carries a reasonable weight. HAPPY CLAPPER has had a nice preparation leading into this and his win last start in the Newcastle Newmarket was impressive. He finished 2nd in this race last year to Winx, and if he is ready to peak third up then he rates a terrific chance. Query on the track though. I think MCCREERY is the best of Waller's chances. Carried 59kg behind Winx last start but drops to 53kg here. Won on heavy at this track first up and should have finished alongside Le Romain in Melbourne last prep. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE is Waller's other runner that can't be ruled out. He's had two hard runs over 2000m to get him very fit and the drop back to 1600m is a tactic we've seen Waller use with great success in the past. He draws well and carries just 52kg so he looks one of the better value chances in the race at $19. SPECTROSCOPE another lightweight hope.
Tip: Redkirk Warrior
Race 10
Not an overly inspiring race this and a tough one to work out with not a lot of exposed form to assess. MULL OVER bolted in when stepped up to 1600m last start and she is bred to get over ground and also to handle the wet so I think she rates as a decent chance here. Has the tricky draw to contend with but the wide draws shouldn't matter much at this stage of the day. $5.50 is a decent price. PERFECT RHYME has been really well supported throughout the week so keep her safe, while DANCING HARE, RED HEAT, FACE LIKE THUNDER are ones at big odds to include. Tough way to end the quaddie!
Tip: Mull Over
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
