Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday, September 19th.
The Group 1 George Main Stakes headlines a huge day of racing at Randwick this Saturday, with a mouthwatering field also assembled for the G2 The Shorts. There's plenty of high-quality racing throughout the nine-race card, and Tim Geers has given his assessment of every race on the card below!
Randwick Racing Tips: 2020 George Main Stakes Day
Best Bet: Race 5 - (5) Probabeel
Best Value: Race 4 - (4) Every Rose
I really can’t work out why (11) Athiri is favourite here. She got beat by Fanciful Dream first up and was the luckless runner last start when given no hope at all as favourite, locked away all straight. However, the fact remains she is a winner of just one race from 13 starts now and this is a very competitive field. I’ll be backing two horses to beat her. (8) Bound To Win trialled really nicely and resumes from a spell today. I thought she might be better with a run under her belt but the blinkers remain on for her first up run today, Tommy Berry is booked straight away, she draws well in barrier 1, has three wins from five starts at the distance and three wins from five on good ground. She looks set up to run a big race here and $6.00 is a good bet. (6) Zakat is racing in great form. He ran 3rd to Kookabaa first up at Canterbury without much luck, then won over this track and distance before going down by a nose last start, again over this track and distance. He sat three-wide the trip on that occasion so his effort was huge, all things considered. The map is a bit tricky for him today but the speed looks good, so that should give him his chance. $6.50 is an appealing price. We were on (7) Prime Star at $21 last start and he got the money for us. He draws well and can certainly go close again. (1) Prime Candidate has a terrific record on good ground and at this distance, but he won’t get things all his own way today with the likes of Partners and Single Bullet in the race. Bound To Win and Zakat for me.
Also backing: (6) Zakat $6.50
(15) It’s Me was dominant on debut at Scone and impressive once again in a Highway here at Randwick a month ago. She’s had four weeks between runs and drops back to 1000m but that shouldn’t stop her making it a hattrick of wins. She looks simply a better horse than the rest of these, just as the market says. I think one you can throw in as a bit of value is (13) Emilette at $18. She ran 3rd in the same Highway that It’s Me won a month ago. She then ran 2nd to Just A Flash at Wellington last start, with a 6L margin back the 3rd horse. Drawn out in barrier 16 but might be able to get across and land on speed. Has a great record at this distance and she’s been right around the mark in every start this prep, so she looks a good each way chance.
Very keen to back (8) Opacity here for John O’Shea and Hugh Bowman. He ran last in the G2 Tramway Stakes last start but he was only 3.5L off the winner Dreamforce. If Dreamforce was lining up in this race, he’d be $1.01. We’ve already seen some of the form out of the Tramway stack up through Rock, who ran 5th and then won the G3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Friday. Opacity has now had three runs when first up for just one minor placing, however he’s undefeated from two starts when second up, so clearly he bounces off that first run back from a spell. He’s also undefeated at the distance and goes well on any surface. Hopefully Hugh can slot him in from barrier 9 and he can round them up in the straight. Will be having a good bet at $4.50. (10) Cinquedea can be included as the value at $11. I was on last start when he drew wide and ran home well to finish midfield over 1500m here at Randwick. Much better drawn today in 3 so can settle closer and be in the finish. (4) Think It Over is knocking on the door for a win after two narrow defeats to open the prep. Perfect draw again today so no reason he can’t be in the finish again. The chances don’t end there!
Value: (10) Cinquedea $11
I don’t agree with (3) Hungry Heart being an even-money favourite here. Yes, she was first up in the Furious Stakes and hit the line hard, indicating the step up to 1400m second up today will suit, but the winner (1) Dame Giselle also sat three-wide the trip. She’s undefeated this prep and there’s no guarantee that just because they step up to 1400m, that Hungry Heart will turn the tables. Dame Giselle has a terrific turn of foot and with a better run in transit here, she might get a winning break on Hungry Heart once again. I think the blowout in the race is (4) Every Rose at $27. She ran 4th first up in the San Domenico Stakes, beaten 7.6L by Anders. Now, that’s a big margin, but other than Rothfire, there isn’t any better three-year-old formline in the country right now than Anders. She drops back to her own sex here, draws barrier 1 and is sure to get every chance. Last prep, she ran 2nd to both Golden Slipper winner Farnan and Sires Produce/Champagne Stakes winner King’s Legacy. (8) Montefilia won well last start and it will be interesting to see how she measures up against this lot on firm ground.
My best bet of the day is (5) Probabeel, who just finds the perfect race today. Her run first up in the Show County Quality was enormous. She was still several lengths off them at the 200m but charged through the line to be beaten a head behind Roheryn. She wasn’t suited at all that day first up over 1200m on soft ground, but she finds her race today second up at 1400m on firm ground. She’s had three starts when second up for two wins and a 0.1L defeat to Funstar. Draws well and looks exceptionally hard to beat. (2) Brandenburg can improve back in grade and with an inside barrier draw. (7) Reloaded ran well first up behind Dreamforce in the Tramway Stakes. We’ve already seen the form stack up through Rock at Newcastle on Friday, and this horse has run 2nd in both starts when second up from a spell. He has an awkward draw but looks a major player. Not sure he’s better than Probabeel though. (8) Roheryn is flying but hasn’t ticked the 1400m box just yet so I have to oppose him.
Race 6 (Market) - G1 George Main Stakes 1600m
The Group 1 George Main Stakes is the day’s feature race, with a field of seven assembled. I think there’s only two horses I’m keen to be with. (6) Verry Elleegant was absolutely enormous first up in the G1 Winx Stakes, sitting four and five-wide throughout, and then fighting back in the final 100m when headed by Star Of The Seas. I thought she couldn’t win that day given the set up of the race. She is much better suited second up at the mile today, and even though she goes better on wet ground, she can still win this on the firmer going. She ran 2nd to Te Akau Shark in the Chipping Norton earlier in the year and that was on a Good surface over this track and distance. She gets a perfect draw here in 2 and if they couldn’t beat her first up, I don’t see them beating her in this. (4) Imaging is the only other runner I’m really interested in and I think he’s the value at $9.50. He was luckless first up in the Missile Stakes and luckless once again in the Winx Stakes behind Verry Elleegant. He drew wide on that occasion, settled last on the rail and had to weave his way through traffic in the straight. The smaller field will suit him and he shouldn’t have any issues from barrier 5. Looks a good price. Fairly happy to take on the others. For a more detailed assessment of the race, check out our video preview below.
Value: (4) Imaging $9.50
(6) Verry Elleegant
$2.40
Fairly dirty I missed the price but (7) Standout looks set up to win this first up. He’s undefeated first up and his trials have been good. He’s also undefeated at the distance. Gerald Ryan is a genius at getting horses to win first up. He books James McDonald for the race which really catches the eye – he’s had 10 rides for this stable in the past 12 months and five of those have been winners. So they rarely book him, but when they do, they normally win or go very close. (3) Classique Legend did a huge job to win first up back in June, carrying 60kg on the soft track. He’s got a terrific fresh record and a great record at the track. He’s obviously right up there in Everest calculations and even though he has a tricky draw here, he should be going very close. In terms of those at better prices, it will e interesting to see how (2) Catalyst measures up first up over 1100m. We know this horse has exceptional ability. He ran Alligator Blood to a nose over 1400m in Melbourne and prior to that, ran some freakish sectionals over 1200m in New Zealand. He’s never raced over 1100m, so this distance is a query, especially against this level of opposition, but he draws the rail, gets the blinkers on first up and I am certainly not underestimating him. The other intriguing runner is (10) Dirty Work who hit the line very well first up in the Concorde behind Gytrash and Nature Strip. They are two of the country’s best sprinters and he was only 2L off the winner. He could spring a surprise here up in distance. His stablemate (8) Greyworm faces his biggest test to date but has an outstanding record at Randwick, and he’s won three from four first up. What a race!
I was on (9) Shared Ambition last start and even though he finished 9th of 15, he had no chance of winning that race from where he was. He wouldn’t have been able to spot the leader with a set of binoculars rounding the home turn. He ran on relatively well and third up today, with an all-important rise to 2000m, he looks capable of showing his best. He draws horribly again but hopefully he’s within striking distance on the turn. (14) Zebrowski was a similar story to Shared Ambition in the same race. He’s another desperately searching for 2000m+ so he can improve with Bowman back on. (10) Sikandarabad ran 2nd to Mugatoo last start and Mugatoo then came out and won the Newcastle Cup on Friday. He’s drawn awkwardly in 17 but he’s racing well. (13) Paths Of Glory comes off a win in the Wyong Cup and isn’t hopeless, while (16) Girl Tuesday is a knockout hope.
(9) Shared Ambition
$5.50
(9) Criaderas is undefeated leading into today, with three wins from as many starts. He was under the pump a fair way from home first up on the Kenso, but once he balanced up he really hit the line well and pulled away to win by 1.8L. The tempo of that race did set it up for him, but he still looks pretty smart and the extra distance is sure to help today. I made (10) Icebath my best bet last start and from barrier 2, ended up near the back of the field on the fence. She was just left with too much to do in the straight, but hit the line very well to be beaten less than a length. Glen Boss keeps the ride and she draws well again in 4. I’m hoping for a repeat of last start as I’m betting against her today, but with me jumping off she will probably win. (14) Petronius ran well first up without being spectacular. He has a great second up record though, with both career wins coming at this stage of his preparation. He should go close at double figure odds and he looks the value.
