Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday, December 16th.
We have a nine-race card on a Soft 6 track, with the meeting headlined by the Group 2 Villiers Stakes.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 Sugar Bella
Best Value Bet: Race 7 Testashadow EW
Race 1
I have no doubt that CALCULATED is the best horse in this race but the big question is whether the 1100m will be too sharp for him first up today. His best will likely come over 2000m and the stable have said that this will be well short of his best distance. Under the big weight, it will take an enormous effort to run them down. That means I’m with AWESOME PLUCK first up, though not confident and not wanting to jump in at the short price. Won by a big margin on debut before a narrow defeat at Warwick Farm last time we saw him. Trialled well leading into this. VELOCANO comes off a win at Gosford at huge odds and could feature, while BOYISH looks the obvious leader in a race very devoid of speed, so could be worth including at big odds.
TIP: Awesome Pluck
Race 2
VICTOREM was impressive in his debut campaign, following an eye-catching debut with two good wins at Kempsey and Grafton. He’s trialled well on two occasions leading into this, most recently behind Music Magnate, and would win this if he brought his best form. At that price in this sort of race I am happy to sit out though. An each way bet on TAKOOKACOD looks a decent way to go with $7.50 on offer, especially with some of the promos around for running a place. This horse’s two career wins have both come on soft ground, and last start he should have been right in the finish in a similar race at Rosehill. He was badly hampered and wasn’t tested on that occasion, so with 51kg and a good draw today he should be very competitive once again. ALL STAND, OAKFIELD TIME and UNDER THE THUMB others to consider at longer odds.
TIP: Takookacod EW
Race 3
The price isn’t anything to shout about but I’d be very surprised if they beat BROADSIDE today. He bolted in first up from a short break over 2000m, taking his record on soft ground to three wins and a 2nd placing from five starts. He has to shoulder all the weight today, but all things being equal I’d expect him to win this. There has been a bit of money for VASSAL to topple him, however. He gets a big weight drop from what he’s carried in recent starts and he’s got numerous runs at the distance under his belt.
TIP: Broadside
Race 4
Very rich two-year-old race here and one that’s hard to get excited about from a betting perspective, as with most two-year-old races involving several debutantes. MISS INVINCIBLE was a big run on debut to run 2nd, which backed up a couple of good trials leading into it. From barrier 13 she’ll roll across to lead here and looks capable of going one better with the experience. LET ME SLEEP ON IT was another horse that ran huge on debut, sitting three-wide outside the speed at Gosford only to go down by three-quarters of a length. From barrier 1 here she will be right up on the speed with a much more economical run, and her trial leading into debut was good enough to see her feature here at each way odds. The two Tony McEvoy runners must be included – LOGAN RIVER and SANCTIMONIOUS – while IRISH BET won his only trial in good style and looks capable of measuring up.
TIP: Miss Invincible / Let Me Sleep On It EW
Race 5
SUGAR BELLA was a dominant winner on her stable debut for Kris Lees first up at Canterbury, where she beat Duchess Pedrille by 2.8L. That horse then came out and won its next start, so the form looks to be very good. The soft ground is no concern and with the light weight she looks to be a major player once again today. I think SECRET TRAIL is the best roughie in the race at $8.50. She ran a big race first up to be beaten just a length, and her second up record reads six starts for three wins and two placings. She gets some valuable weight off her back with Lee Magorrian’s claim and I’m expecting her to go close here. MACHIENGUN JUBS was poor on heavy ground last start but she’s much better than that and was a winner two starts ago. She’s got a great record at this distance and if you can forgive her last start then she should be very competitive here at double figure odds. IN TIMES OF WAR is consistent and will be somewhere thereabouts, while stablemate O’RACHAEL is capable of winning a good race one day but may just need the hit out. SUSPENDERS and KAWAIKINI others to include.
TIP: Sugar Bella / Secret Trail EW
Race 6
Two I like here. SEDANZER is two from two this prep and I don’t see any real reason she can’t go on with it once again here. She’s a winner at the distance and gets in with 57.5kg after the claim for Rachel King, and if she can slot in one off the fence from barrier 8 then she must be a big chance once again. The only slight unknown is the soft ground but it’s only rated a soft 5 at this stage and there’s nothing in her breeding to suggest she won’t be able to handle that. I think the best roughie in the race is ZOURKHAN for the Waller stable. This horse has a great first up record and he won convincingly first up last prep in Melbourne. He goes particularly well on soft ground and from the good draw I expect him to run a very bold race at $14. DREAMFORCE has come back in good style this prep and won his latest start. He draws a touch sticky here and must be some query on the softer surface, so I’m prepared to take him on today. CHATELARD worth including first up.
TIP: Sedanzer / Zourkhan EW
Race 7
Nice little race. INTERLOCUTER has done nothing wrong this prep, winning all four races (lost the first on protest) and there’s no reason he can’t make it five today. He drops back to the mile today on the recommendation of Tye Angland, who thinks that’s his best distance. He won his only start on soft ground and from barrier 4 he looks to get a beautiful run in the race. Sticking with what’s worked. TESTASHADOW was a blowout winner last start but there was market support to suggest he would run well. He got the better of MISTER SEA WOLF on that occasion, who was only first up and on his Australian debut. Testashadow meets Mister Sea Wolf under similar conditions and he actually has a good third up record, so I see no reason why he should be an $18 chance here. Definitely including Mister Sea Wolf and won’t be losing on him at all. The stable have a big opinion of him and if he’s come on at all he must rate a serious chance. CABEZA DE VACA ran just as the market predicted last start, when it was a notable drifting favourite. He pulled up slightly lame and can bounce back today. Backing Interlocuter and Testashadow, saving on Mister Sea Wolf.
TIP: Interlocuter / Testashadow EW
Race 8
Another super competitive race. Interested in CALANDA who just hasn’t had a great deal go his way this preparation. The race was there to be won in Brisbane last start but he just couldn’t get past Monsieur Gustave, who is flying. He had his head in front before and after the post but not on the post. He does have a terrific record on soft ground, however, and has won his only start at the track, so with each way odds on offer today, he might be worth one last chance. THE MONSTAR comes out of some nice form races and is a very consistent runner. He’s got a terrific record on soft ground and also has a good record at the track and distance so with as much as $19 on offer he’s worth including. I’d give a good push for PALAZZO PUBLICO second up here after a good first up run, and BIG MONEY should be ready to do something. CHETWOOD has trialled very nicely on three occasions but that’s standard for him. SIR PLUSH and I THOUGHT SO both have certain claims. KURO the blowout.
TIP: Calanda / The Monstar EW
Race 9
Tough race to finish off with. UPTOWN LAD has returned in terrific form this preparation with two wins from two starts, including a dominant win on wet ground last time out. That should mean the soft ground is no issue at all today, and based on the strength of the win last start, you’d imagine he’ll be right in this today. The value could be THE PHAROAH, who ran well enough first up from a short spell. Interestingly, he’s had a stable change since his last start. His second up record is much better than his first up record so I’m expecting plenty of improvement from him today and, from barrier 1, a more positive ride. There’s double figure odds available which looks a decent each way bet. REDOUBLE, LEVEL EIGHT and MALAISE all chances.
TIP: Uptown Lad / The Pharoah EW
QUADDIE
2, 3, 6, 8
4, 5, 8, 11
3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 14
2, 4, 6, 7, 9
$100 = 20.83%
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