Two teams on the edge of the top 8 will close out Round 5 in the NRL, as the stumbling Raiders host the Eels, with both teams coming off poor losses in Round 4. I’m looking forward to this one, and the result should give us a good insight as to where these teams stand at the ¼ point of the regular season.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels
GIO Stadium, Sunday 7th April, 6:15pm (AET)
Last Week
The Raiders shot out to a 18-0 lead after 25 minutes last week against the Sharks, before imploding in spectacular fashion to go down 36-22. Head Coach Ricky Stuart blew a gasket after the game, and I expect a much more complete performance from the Raiders this weekend. The stats last week were extremely similar between the Sharks and Raiders, which is surely a concern for Stuart, as the Raiders should have won that game after leading 18-0.
As for the Eels, they went down 17-16 to the Tigers in a thriller on Monday afternoon, with an Aidan Sezer field goal proving the difference. There were several contributors to the Eels performance, however they certainly lacked polish in attack without Mitch Moses. They will be hoping with another week of training with this group, they can fair better this week in attack. Glint Gutherson was tremendous, and they will need another standout performance from him this week if they’re to get by the Raiders.
Match Preview
These teams met once last season, in Canberra, with the Raiders running out 26-18 winners. The interesting thing about this matchup is the fact Mitch Moses was missing from this game as well, with Jake Arthur stepping in at halfback. The Raiders closed 2.5-point favourites for this game, in what is a nice point of reference when handicapping this week’s game.
The Raiders opened 1.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s games, where it has remained throughout the week. I make this game a pick em’, as I believe the Eels are slightly better than the Raiders on a neutral field, however it’s far too tight to make a bet on the line. This is a genuine coin flip, and the odds for the Eels aren’t good enough to make a bet.
The total opened 42.5, and the total remains 42.5. If Moses was playing, I would make this total 46.5, so I can see why the total is low. With the weather that has been around, the market is leaning lower than it usually would too in my opinion, but I would lean the over here if I had to pick a side. I don’t see quite enough value in the total though, so I’ll leave it alone for now.
So, a real coin flip here in my opinion, and the best bet on the card appears to be betting that this will be a tight contest. We will go with some longer odds, but a smaller stake, and bet that this game will end with a margin of a converted try or less.
Either team wins by 6 points or less
$2.70 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Eels (1-12) – The 1-12 speaks for itself in the above preview, however picking one of the teams to win the coin flip significantly boosts these odds. If you prefer the Raiders, take the Raiders 1-12, the odds are still tremendous.
M Timoko (1+ try) – I’m dying on this hill. Timoko is due, the Eels left side defence is horrible, and I just love this bloke close to the line. Give him a chance, and he will get you a try.
M Sivo (1+ try) – It didn’t take long for Sivo to get back on the scoreboard, scoring a try in the 16th minute of his return last week against the Tigers. With Moses out, the Eels will go left more often, and with Sivo against a relatively inexperienced winger (Schiller), expect the powerhouse winger to score again.
SGM Odds: $16.51 at Neds
