It’s a Friday Night blockbuster, as the Rabbitohs host the Broncos in a clash between two of the Premiership Heavyweights this season. Both teams welcome back some huge names, and this looks to be the game of the round. Will the return of Latrell Mitchell spark the Rabbitohs back into mid-season form, or can Reece Walsh’s inclusion be enough for the Broncos to continue their march towards the Minor Premiership?
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Brisbane Broncos
Accor Stadium, Friday 21st July, 8:05pm (AEST)
The Rabbitohs come off the bye in round 20, with their last up start being a 36-32 loss to the Bulldogs in round 19. There’s not a lot to take from this result, given the Rabbitohs rested their Origin stars and were still without Latrell Mitchell, leaving what was close to a reserve grade side on the paddock. They were outplayed by the Bulldogs, and the score line was closer than it should have been, with two tries in the final 4 minutes for the Rabbitohs. They expect to fare much better this week with their stars back.
As for the Broncos, they hammered the Bulldogs in Sydney 44-24 last week. Whilst the Broncos were also missing a host of big names, they managed to get the job done fairly comfortably, despite it being tight for 35 minutes with the scores locked at 18-all. A dominant 35-minute period by the Broncos was enough to get the 2 points, and keep their hopes of a Minor Premiership alive.
The Rabbitohs opened up 3.5-point favourites for this crucial clash, and with the confirmation of a return for Latrell Mitchell, punters have taken the Rabbitohs past the key number of 4 to now sit 4.5-point favourites. I can’t help but feel this is too big a number, even with the return of Latrell. A huge point to make in this clash is the fact it’s on a neutral site, with the game being played at the Sunshine Coast Stadium, in Queensland. So, if anything, there’s possibly some crowd advantage for the Broncos. My numbers would put this as Rabbitohs -2.5/3 at most, and that is if the Rabbitohs slot straight back into their pre-injury Latrell form. I have slight value on the Broncos based on my numbers, and a possible overreaction to the return of Latrell.
As for the total, it opened at 44.5 and has been bet up to 45.5, so no real change. Both these teams are top 6 in both attack and defence, and so this could really go either way, although I’d expect the feel of a real final’s matchup here, with points being at a premium. I make a fair 42.5, so if this total ticks up to 46.5 it will be a play for me.
These two teams met in round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, and there could be some of this result playing into the handicap here also, as the Rabbitohs easily accounted for the Broncos 32-6 on the road. However, don’t forget the Broncos were missing both Payne Haas and Ezre Mam, had just come back from a game in Darwin that would have sapped their energy, and the Bunnies were in the midst of becoming the favourite for the Premiership, after dispatching the Panthers 20-18 the previous week.
The Broncos have struggled against the best teams this season; however, this is a massive clash, and they need to prove they belong in the discussion for the Premiership. I expect a tight contest, and will take the 4.5 points on offer. It won’t be an official play, but keep an eye out if that total ticks up anymore, with an under play a strong possibility.
Brisbane Broncos +4.5
$1.85 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Under 51.5 total points – See above. I believe there’s value on the under 45.5, so giving myself an extra converted try here for safety.
Campbell Graham (1+ try) – The Broncos left edge defence is their weakness, and Campbell Graham has shown this year that he is just as dangerous in attack as defence, with 14 tries in 15 games.
Herbie Farnworth (1+ try) – The Rabbitohs right side defence has conceded 42% of all tries conceded by the club this season, and with Herbie Farnworth having a career year, I like him to cross the stripe for his 12th try this season.
SGM Odds: $13 at Picklebet
