With the 2024 Paris Olympics fast approaching, Australia is set to once again rely on its swimmers to move them up the medal tally. Ariarne Titmus, Mollie O’Callaghan, Kaylee McKeown and Cameron McEvoy are all favourites to win individual golds, while the relay teams are also expected to take home a few wins. With plenty of action in the pool, we take a look at my best bets for the upcoming Games!
Paris Olympics 2024: Swimming Best Bets
Women’s 100m Freestyle
Aussie swim sensation Mollie O’Callaghan will enter the 100m event as the favourite to take home the gold and rightfully so. O’Callaghan made her Olympic debut in Tokyo at 17 years of age and took home an incredible two golds and a bronze.
Now, at this year’s Paris Games, she is out for individual glory and domination in the pool, with her best chance in the 100m freestyle. At the 2024 NSW championships, O’Callaghan sizzled and then backed it up with a 52.33 at the Australian Olympic trials.
Comparatively, it was almost half a second faster than the times being put up by her biggest rival for the 100m freestyle gold, Siobhan Haughey. Haughey in her last three swims has clocked 52.78, 52.72 and 52.26. Notably, she hasn’t gone faster than the mark set by the Aussie since last year and isn’t in the form of O’Callaghan. The Aussie also clocked 52.48 seconds last year and has been more consistent in the last 12 to 24 months. She looks primed to take home the 100m gold at the very least at the Paris Olympics.
TIP: Mollie O’Callaghan Gold Medal ($2.05 at Bet365)
Men’s 800m Freestyle
My favourite bet of the entire Olympics comes in the men’s 800m freestyle. The event pits reigning Olympic champion Bobby Finke against Ireland’s world champion Daniel Wiffen. But it is the silver medallist from Fukoka, Australia’s Sam Short, who I am very keen on the chances of. In the event in Fukoka last year, Short fell short of Tunisian Ahmed Hafnaoui, who was dominant in claiming the win. But with the Tunisian star not competing in Paris, the event is wide open.
In Fukoka, Short beat home Finke and swam out a very strong 800. At the Australian trials earlier this year, he finished second behind Elijah Winnington but he had been sick in the lead-up and was greatly depleted. I believe that showing, however, is why he is third favourite for this event as he has clocked the fastest time of anyone competing at Paris. Back in Short with confidence as in my market, he is the favourite to take home the gold and by the time the final field takes shape, he just might be.
TIP: Sam Short Gold Medal ($3.40 at BoomBet)
Women’s 200m Freestyle
The women’s 200m freestyle is viewed as somewhat of an Aussie match race between the aforementioned Mollie O’Callaghan and Ariarne Titmus. The duo are training partners working under the astute swim coach Dean Boxall and have both broken the world record in the last 24 months. The last time they met Titmus broke O’Callaghan’s record by more than six-tenths of a second in an incredible swim at the Aussie Olympic trials.
The pair have traded blows in recent world championships but the last race showed Titmus has come up with a smart plan to beat her Aussie counterpart. At the Australian trials, O’Callaghan led at the first turn after a great start but Titmus came home stronger, finishing over the top of O’Callaghan. Previously Titmus had gone out hard to try and get ahead of O’Callaghan at the halfway mark, however, she is the stronger of the two over the final 50m and was burning too much energy with that tactic to utilise her strengths. With a game plan of staying in touch with her Aussie counterpart and then proving too strong late, I am backing her to retain her Olympic title in Paris. She has also noted that she is feeling the best she ever has in recent interviews and has progressed nicely in the lead-up, seemingly ready to peak at the right time.
TIP: Ariarne Titmus Gold Medal ($1.90 at BoomBet)
Women’s 200m Individual Medley
It appears that there will be a three-way struggle for gold in the women’s 200m individual medley. Aussie Kaylee McKeown is the slight favourite to win gold, followed by Canadian teen Summer McIntosh and American Kate Douglass. But there are mere cents separating the trio in early markets.
McKeown set a national record at the Australian Olympic trials and is the strongest in the opening two legs - meaning she should have a nice lead heading into breaststroke. McIntosh is almost certainly set to take out the 400m individual medley but I don’t believe she will have the explosive speed to win an Olympic gold in the 200m.
I personally believe either McKeown or Douglass will take home gold and it will rely heavily on how far behind the American is at the halfway mark. The backstroke leg is a huge advantage for McKeown but breaststroke is where Douglass is superior. If come the final 50m McKeown is a body length in front she will win, if not I believe the American will be too strong on the final lap. I have tossed up this pick and gone between the pair but have landed on McKeown as I think she has been competing against faster girls in preparation for the Olympics and will have the game plan to take it out.
TIP: Kaylee McKeown Gold Medal ($2.90 at Ladbrokes)
Men’s 100m Freestyle
One of the pinnacle events of the Olympic Games, the men’s 100m freestyle is another fascinating affair. Pan Zhanle is the current world record holder and favourite to take home the gold for China but I think a mini upset is on the cards, with Romanian David Popovici primed to strike.
In February, Zhanle broke the 100m freestyle record at the World Championships in the freestyle relay (46.80) and also registered a fast time in the 100m individual event (46.97). He is only the third swimmer in history to record sub-47 seconds and he has done so three times this year alone. The 19-year-old is favoured to take it out, but Popovici can cause a mini boilover.
The Romanian burst onto the scene a few years ago and while he was touted as a superstar at the time, he has failed to reach the dizzying heights he was meant to. However, he was still the previous world record holder before Zhanle went and broke it but it was his performance in June that caught my eye.
At the LEN Championships, Popovici’s 46.88 went largely under the radar. It was an enormous swim and it was a perfect hit out before Paris. The eye test on that swim was great and it looked like he still had a gear left to go up. It has me believing that he is set to crack the world record and take out the gold in Paris.
TIP: David Popovici Gold Medal ($2.90 at Neds)
