The 2023 NRL Finals action has been exciting for the past two weeks and that looks to be replicated in Week 3. Just 4 teams remain with the home teams hoping that their advantage will count for something. The first game heads to Homebush, the venue for the Grand Final next week, with the Panthers hosting the Storm. Each team have had their fair share of success this season and are just 80 minutes away from returning here next week.
As always, BeforeYouBet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action and get your weekend off to a winning note with our NRL betting tips!
2023 NRL Preliminary Final Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm
Accor Stadium, Friday 22nd September, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Panthers were victorious in Week 1 of the Finals with a convincing 32-6 win over the Warriors. Dominant from the start, they scored after 4 minutes and built on that in a grinding manner to lead 20-nil at the break. It was a machine-like performance which only conceded a try in the 56th minute and then went on to close out the game by scoring 2 more of their own. The difference in class was evident; they control play with a 57% share of possession and 82% completion rate, ran for 500+m, had more pcm’s and 9 total line breaks. Their defence was equally as good, missing just 26 tackles, conceding 1 line break and limiting the Warriors to just 7.5m per carry. It was a performance which reminded the other sides what the benchmark in the 2023 competition is.
The Storm returned home last week, following their 26-nil loss to the Broncos in Week 1, and faced off against the Roosters. With their opponents missing a significant number of players, it was expected that the Storm would easily account for their opponents. The performance was the opposite of that; they were drawn into an arm wrestle and only prevailed in the 78th minute with a converted try handing them a 18-13 victory. The way the Storm performed in this game and the one prior suggests that they are well below their best from previous seasons. You need look no further than their 43 missed tackles and 5 line breaks conceded for support of this. They are, however, still playing in a Preliminary Final. The great game of rugby league always surprises, and this game offers another opportunity for that to occur.
The momentum of the Panthers is difficult to overlook, especially if their victory in Week 1 of the Finals was anything to go by. They are arguably a stronger side since that performance too, with both Tago (centre) and Luai (5/8) named to return from injury for this game. This has seen them listed as favourites ($1.18 vs $4.80) with the return of Hughes for the Storm doing little to improve their chances in the opinion of the bookies. It is difficult to disagree with them; they were expected to perform far better than they did last week and without taking anything away from their opponents, they were poor. The Storm usually execute with ruthlessness but that was absent and so too is their rigid defensive structure. Hughes will improve their attack by offering stability but that will only count for so much. The season averages of both sides (Panthers – Attack 26ppg Defence 13ppg vs Storm – Attack 25ppg Defence 19ppg) shouldn’t be overly analysed. The Storm recorded strong victories this season against inferior opponents. Both times these two sides have met this season have seen an 18 point (Round 18) and 20 point (Round 23) victory to the Panthers. They are ruthless in the way they execute, and this game should be no different. The Storm will put up a fight; they will disrupt the momentum of the Panthers with every opportunity, and it starts with limiting Nathan Cleary’s kicking options. Still, the line makers knew what they were doing when they made in 13.5 points. Expect the Panthers to strangle their opponents out of this match over 80 minutes and perhaps win by a margin like what they have produced in season 2023.
Panthers -13.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
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Leg 1: Panthers 13+
Leg 2: Under 38.5 Points
Leg 3: Crichton to Score
The first selection goes without saying. 4 of their past 5 games have gone below this points total, with the average of their past 5 games sitting at 30.4 points. Crichton also has a strong record when playing the Storm, scoring in 4 out of their past 5 games against them.
SGM Odds: $7.50 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
