A later start this Saturday with NRL action beginning at 5:30pm (AEST). Fans will be delighted that two games are still on offer and attention will be firmly on the opening game between the Panthers and the Dragons. They are at opposite ends of the competition ladder but with several players missing for the home side, the visitors may sense an opportunity to steal victory. Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at the action and see how this game will play out.
2024 NRL Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
BlueBet Stadium – Saturday 1st June – 5:30pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Panthers made a statement that they are a team who is determined to make it a 4th straight premiership with a 42-nil thumping of the Sharks at home. Minus Cleary, a reshuffled Panthers outfit gave little respect and opportunity to their opponents. They controlled every aspect of the match with 61% possession, an 87% completion rate, allowing just 7.3m per carry to their opponents, making 6 and conceding zero line breaks and missing just 27 tackles. It was an impressive display to say the least and one which may have cemented several players a birth in Origin on Wednesday.
The Dragons had high hopes of competing with the Bulldogs in their Round 12 match but were delivered a reality check in their 44-12 loss on the road. Taking winning form into the Bye, the Dragons appeared as though the break had worked against them, playing to an inferior standard. Leading 12-6 at HT, they went on to concede 7 second half tries; some of their players appeared as though they had given up. The fact that they managed just 1,200m total, 2 line breaks and has just 42% possession highlighted their lack of desire. It was anything but a positive performance from a team that is desperate to find winning form and make a push towards a spot in the Top 8.
Match Prediction
The Panthers are dramatically impacted by representative selection with 5 players absent from this game, on top of Cleary, May and Eisenhuth, that’s 8 from their starting 17 who are unavailable. They have shown in the past that they can replace players with a strong pathways program but such a higher number is bound to test their resolve. While only having three players absent on representative duty, they are crucial players to the Dragons success in Hunt, Su’A and Lomax. These thoughts are reflected in the odds, with the Panthers still favourites for this match ($1.36 vs $3.20).
The poor record at this ground (39%) compared to the Panthers dominance (60%) at home is a starting point for this contest. When you look further at what each team has offered so far this season, the case for the Panthers winning this game only grows. They average 24ppg in attack compared with the Dragons 18ppg, and are superior in defence, allowing just 14ppg while the Dragons leak an average of 26ppg.
The Panthers have won the past 6 against the Dragons also but if there was ever an ideal opportunity to break that winning streak, this would be the match. Though given how poorly they played last week, it is hard to invest on them with any confidence. The Panthers are too short to justify a bet on them and the inconsistency of the Dragons makes this a challenging choice.
The easier option is to avoid this game altogether or have a crack at the total points margin available in this contest. In the past 5 matches, the average points total has been 49.6; an outlier of 36 points drags this down though, with 4 out of the 5 being by 44+ points.
Total Points Over 43.5 points
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Each have been at their destructive best this year. Turuva is the leading try scorer at his club and is a known finisher. Tago takes his chances when they come his way and despite missing a few games, has a 50% strike rate this season. Expect him to put the Dragons defensive line under pressure also.
Turuva to Score
Tago to Score
SGM Odds: $3.70 at Neds (0.5 Units)
