There are plenty of interesting storylines emerging heading into Round 3 of the AFL season and we are looking forward to a big weekend of footy. We managed to pick a few winners in Round 2 and hopefully we can find some more this week. Be sure to read on and check out our AFL Round 3 betting tips.
_ _ _
Collingwood Magpies Vs. St Kilda Saints (Friday at 7:50pm AEDT)
This big Round 3 opener is going to be a much tighter battle than footy fans might expect. The Magpies are looking a bit out of sorts, while the Saints seem stronger than ever. But this is a Friday night at the MCG and that is when the black and white army shine. We must also not forget that St Kilda has a terrible record against the Magpies, most recently losing by 86 points in Round 11 of last season.
It has been well document this week that Josh Bruce is the key to St Kilda’s success. He kicked six goals last week and has a huge mark on him. If he can fire up again, the Saints will have every chance of getting the four points. The Magpies will certainly be looking to nullify Bruce's influence, so this will be a good chance to see how good this kid is.
While they were outclassed by Adelaide last week, the Magpies looked okay and will certainly be hoping to get some momentum going with a win against the Saints.
Tip: Collingwood by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.15 at Ladbrokes
Carlton Blues Vs. Essendon Bombers (Saturday, April 18 at 1:45pm AEST)
Essendon were the big talking point after their inspirational come from behind victory against the reigning premiers in Round 2. There is a lot of hype around this mob at the moment and it doesn’t look like anyone is giving Carlton a chance. We don’t either.
Joe Daniher was great against the Hawks last week and the Blues have proven over the last two weeks they can’t handle a big-bodied goal kicker.
The last times these two met was Round 23 of last year and it was a draw. Carlton shouldn’t get anywhere near that result this weekend, but the five goal line is a bit iffy in a big game like this, especially when a proud coach like Mick Malthouse has everything to fight for.
Tip: No Bet
Adelaide Crows Vs. Melbourne Demons (Saturday, April 18 at 1:40pm ACST)
The Crows are on fire and there is no doubt they are looking better than many punters expected at the start of the year. The Demons, meanwhile, looked great when the beat the Suns in Round 1, but then struggled against the Giants in Round 2. This game will be a good chance to see where they are really at. However, with Adelaide firing on all cylinders and the game in South Australia, you can’t expect the Demons to have a chance here. Expecting a similar margin, or more, to the Demons loss last week. Don’t buy into the talk that the Demons defeated the Crows at home last year as the underdogs – it won’t happen again.
Tip: Adelaide Crows at the line (-44.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Sydney Swans Vs. GWS Giants (Saturday, April 18 at 4:35pm AEST)
This is going to be the biggest NSW ‘derby’ since the inception of the GWS Giants. Both teams are undefeated and both will be looking to keep it that. Unfortunately for the young Giants, however, they are coming up against the champion Swans. The chatter has been around Adam Goodes dropping to the twos this weekend and when your team has the depth to have a player like Goodes in the twos, well, that speaks for itself.
Of course, it was Round 1 of last year that the Giants somehow beat the Swans in what was considered one of the biggest upsets in the history of the game. If the Giants did it again it wouldn’t be quite as big an upset, but we would certainly be surprised. Shane Mumford is going to be so important for the Giants and he will be keen to stick it up his former team.
The line of 40 points is just too big to back the Swans and in fact, we find some value in getting on the Swans to win by less than that.
Tip: Sydney Swans to win by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.40 at Sportsbet
North Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, April 18 at 7:20pm AEST)
This game at Etihad on Saturday night between two top four contenders might be the game of the round. The Kangaroos are coming off a ten-goal victory over the Lions, while the Power are uncharacteristically 0-2 after tough losses to Sydney and Fremantle.
Despite their losses in the last two weeks, the Power come into this game as favourites and we believe it’s deserved. Let’s not forget that the Kangaroos only beat a Lions outfit lacking Tom Rockliff, not to mention how terrible they were in Round 1 against Adelaide.
North Melbourne do have a good record against the Power, but with some injury woes, including Nick Dal Santo being out, we are happy to get behind the Power in this one.
Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-4.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Brisbane Lions Vs. Richmond Tigers (Saturday, April 18 at 7:20pm AEST)
It has not been a good year for Brisbane. Not only did they lose their best player Tom Rockliff, but they also lost Michael Close last week. Pearce Hanley is still out too. They are in for a world of hurt of the next several weeks and we don’t expect them to have what it takes to beat Richmond.
So if we don’t think the Lions get win here, then the question is, how much do the Tigers win by?
They have a great record against the Lions, even winning the last three at the Gabba. They will also be looking to make a statement and bounce back strong after an embarrassing defeat against he Bulldogs last week. I’m not sure Richmond have the capacity to put teams away at the moment, but I also think the Lions could easily drop their heads without the leadership of Rockliff out there. Taking the Tigers at the line, but also leaning towards a small play at the over 40 point market.
Tip: Richmond at the line (-13.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
+ small play on Tigers by more than 40 points (40+) - $4.00 at Sportsbet
Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Western Bulldogs (Sunday, April 19 at 1:10pm AEST)
There hasn’t been many teams more talked about teams than the Western Bulldogs in 2015. They are fired up and head into this game against Hawthorn undefeated. Unfortunately they won’t be staying undefeated.
This one is as simple as the Hawks being too strong. Sure, the Doggies’ coach Luke Beveridge knows this Hawks team back to front, but Alistair Clarkson also knows Beveridge. The game is at Tassie, which the Hawks will love and at the end of the day, they are a champion team who will bounce back strong after a tough loss last week.
However, after all that, the nine goal line looks just too big to back.
Tip: No Bet
Geelong Cats Vs. Gold Coast Suns (Sunday, April 19 at 3:20pm AEST)
Can anyone believe neither Geelong nor the Suns have won a game this season? One of these teams will be breathing a sigh of relief on Sunday night as the finally get the monkey off the back and we think that team will be Geelong.
The Suns go in with zero confidence and even less than last week now that Gary Ablett is out. How can they head down to Simonds Stadium thinking they have a chance? The Cats, meanwhile, will know this and will be going for the jugular.
Tip: Geelong by more than 40 points (40+) - $1.95 at Ladbrokes
West Coast Eagles Vs. Fremantle Dockers (Sunday, April 19 at 2:20pm AWST)
Sunday afternoon sees Fremantle come into a derby with having won the last five against West Coast. As usual it should be a tight one with both teams confident after victories last week. West Coast showed better form in Round 2 compared to their Round 1 loss against the Bulldogs and would never count themselves down and out for a derby. Fremantle, however, have been so good this year and on current form it’s tough to think West Coast could win.
Nic Nat is going to have to dominate Sandilands if the Eagles have a chance and Sandilands isn’t often dominated. Fremantle will miss Ballantyne to suspension, but will still get over the line. The last four have been decided less than 40 points and we think that trend will continue.
Tip: Fremantle by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Ladbrokes
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
