The Brownlow Medal is one of our favourite AFL betting markets. Not only is it just plain good fun to try and work out who is leading the race all year long, the Brownlow Medal can also be one of the most profitable betting markets of the year.
While many punters won’t bet on the Brownlow Medal until a few days before the night itself, preseason is a great time to get some equity in the market. You can then monitor the odds throughout the year and back and lay on Betfair accordingly.
The team at Before You Bet will be covering Brownlow Medal betting tips extensively throughout 2015 with regular articles to appear on our AFL betting tips page. Until the season begins, you can see who we are looking at in preseason Brownlow Medal betting below.
2015 Brownlow Medal Betting Tips
Here is a little bit of a caveat before we get started:
Never write off Gary Ablett. He’s very likely the greatest player of all time. If he plays a full year, he is always a chance and a better chance than almost anyone.
Nat Fyfe - $8.20
Votes in 2014: 25 (Freo – 16 wins)
Games polled in 2014: 11 – Five BOG
Career votes: 75 (Ave - .9 votes per game)
No player finished closer to Matt Priddis in the 2014 Brownlow count than Nat Fyfe. It’s very likely Fyfe would have won the medal if he didn’t get suspended and played the whole year. There is no doubting this kid’s freak talent. It would be very surprising if Fyfe didn’t win a Brownlow in his career and why not in 2015? Fyfe polled in just 11 games last year and was best on ground in just under half of those polling games – the kind of numbers that win Brownlows. Can find him over $8 at Betfair Australia and that’s certainly right around the mark. One of those players that you just need to not get injured or suspended.
Click here to bet on Nat Fyfe at Betfair - $8.20
Joel Selwood - $16.50
Votes in 2014: 21 (Cats – 17 wins)
Games polled in 2014: 11 – Two BOG
Career votes: 137 (Ave – 0.84 votes per game)
Joel Selwood was our outright pick for the Brownlow on the night in 2014 and he ended up five votes behind. This was largely due to quite a few two-vote games that we had marked down as best on ground performances – he had the least three-vote games of anyone in the top ten. Selwood is one of those players that is always there abouts and so $16.5 is definitely value. Was unlucky to lose by one vote to Gary Ablett in 2013. The great thing about Selwood is that we know the umpires love him, he’s not likely to get reported and Geelong will win enough games to put him in contention. If anything, Selwood’s downfall in vote-getting could be his selfless nature out on the field.
Click here to bet on Joel Selwood at Betfair - $16.50
Trent Cotchin - $30
Votes in 2014: 18 (Tigers – 12 wins)
Games polled in 2014: 9 – Three BOG
Career votes: 83 (Ave – 0.64)
Trent Cotchin is one of those frustrating players on Brownlow night – he won’t get the three votes when you expect him to, he will get them when the Tigers lose a game and you had someone else down for the BOG. But that’s why Cotchin is always a chance for the medal. The umpires love him. He polled 26 votes in 2012 off just 11 games. Those are big numbers. Cotchin had a shocking year by his standards in 2014 and still polled 18. That’s a telling sign. Love the look of him at $30-1.
Click here to bet on Trent Cotchin at Betfair - $30.00
Tom Rockliff- $30
Votes in 2014: 15 (Lions – 7 wins)
Games polled in 2014: 8 – One BOG
Career votes: 53 (Ave – 0.52)
If Tom Rockliff was in a team like Freo (as Fyfe is) then he would be up there paying $6-$8 with Ablett and co. He’s a freak, no doubt, but the important stat to note is that he polled 21 votes off 10 wins in 2013 and 15 off seven wins in 2014 – and plenty of those votes came in the losing games. It is this which separates Rockliff from the pack. Do not be surprised to see Rockliff with the medal around his neck if Brisbane win a few more games this year and Rockliff keeps polling in losing games.
Click here to bet on Tom Rockliff at Betfair - $30.00
2015 Brownlow ‘Roughie’ Chances
Here is a little look at some of the other players we are monitoring for the 2015 Brownlow Medal. All of the below players are ones we have liked in the past and look like with full fitness and a full year, could be dangerous. Perhaps not as attractive as the above players, but with big odds on offer at Betfair, maybe worth a look.
Andrew Swallow - $50 at Betfair
Dane Swan - $50 at Betfair
Steve Johnson - $65 at Betfair
Brett Deledio - $110 at Betfair
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
