Another incredible round of AFL football is in the books with more surprise performances, a few upsets and a Covid scare forcing the postponement of the Essendon vs Melbourne match. The Brownlow Bandit continues with his comprehensive AFL Brownlow Medal coverage with game-by-game analysis of every match for every round of the 2020 AFL season to help you with your Brownlow Medal betting.
Our Brownlow Medal predictions and rolling Brownlow Medal tracker allow you to keep an eye on the Brownlow betting markets throughout the season, so that you can build a green book so that by the time the 2020 Brownlow Medal night rolls around we’re assured of a profit!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our live 2020 Brownlow Medal vote predictions and leaderboard, while there will be links to round-by-round voting posted there.
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips, and of course, check out our 2020 AFL Brownlow Round 3 Vote Predictions below!
Round 3 Brownlow Medal Votes
Round 3 of the 2020 AFL season has been (almost) completed, with a Covid scare with Essendon's Conor McKenna forcing a postponement of the Essendon vs Melbourne match. The other eight games produced a few clear standout performances which are likely to get noticed by the umpires on Brownlow Medal night. We take a look at each match of the round and provide our Brownlow vote predictions for Round 3.
Richmond 5.9.39 def by Hawthorn 11.5.71
The Hawks bounced back to cause a big upset on the reigning premiers to kick off Round 3. Isaac Smith was allowed to run rampant with 29 disposals and a goal, while Jaegar O’Meara was a huge inclusion for the Hawks as he was dominant in the first half to end with 23 disposals and a goal. James Sicily floated across half-back for 23 disposals, while Chad Wingard may also be in the votes for his 3 goals from 15 touches.
Isaac Smith – 3
Jaegar O’Meara – 2
Chad Wingard – 1
Western Bulldogs 8.9.57 def GWS Giants 4.9.33
In a spiteful match, the Dogs were too strong for a poor Giants outfit that was missing several stars. Jack Macrae was the most prolific ball winner with 25 disposals and 7 tackles. Caleb Daniel had 23 touches while Alex Keath (14 disposals, 5 marks) minimized the impact of the Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron. Stephen Coniglio (24 disposals) and Harry Perryman (23 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) carried the load for the Giants.
Jack Macrae – 3
Harry Perryman – 2
Caleb Daniel – 0.5
Alex Keath – 0.5
North Melbourne 8.12.60 def by Sydney 10.11.71
The Kangaroos blew a golden opportunity to remain undefeated in 2020 after lowering their colours to the Swans. It will be a tricky game for Brownlow voting with an even performance from Sydney’s players. Isaac Heeney (18 disposals, 1 goal), Oliver Florent (22 disposals), Josh Kennedy (22 disposals, 6 clearances) and Luke Parker (19 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal) were all solid. Perhaps the best player on the ground was North Melbourne’s Jy Simpkin who led the Roos with 26 disposals, 8 clearances and a goal. Todd Goldstein also won the ruck battle with 35 hitouts to go with 18 disposals.
Jy Simpkin – 2.5
Isaac Heeney – 2.5
Oliver Florent – 0.5
Josh Kennedy – 0.5
Collingwood 12.9.81 def St.Kilda 5.7.37
The Pies clipped the Saints in impressive fashion to remain undefeated in 2020. Steele Sidebottom will be in the Brownlow votes with 31 disposals, 6 tackles and a goal, while Scott Pendlebury (26 disposals) and Jack Crisp (24 disposals, 6 marks) also won plenty of ball. Brodie Grundy was dominant in the air with 31 hitouts, 20 disposals and 5 marks. For the Saints, Brad Hill (25 disposals) tried hard and Dan Butler (16 disposals, 2 goals) was lively up forward.
Steele Sidebottom – 3
Scott Pendlebury – 2
Brodie Grundy - 1
Brisbane Lions 10.14.74 def West Coast 6.8.44
The Lions were too strong for the Eagles as the West Coasters aren’t exactly enjoying their holiday in Queensland so far. Lachie Neale was again brilliant with 32 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances and 2 goals. It’s likely to be another 3 votes so we hope you jumped on our recommended bet last week at $14 as his price has now halved to just $7 favouritism. Hugh McLuggage (26 disposals) and Jarryd Lyons (25 disposals, 7 clearances) were also strong through the middle. For the Eagles, Nic Natanui was the dominant big man with 34 hitouts, 12 disposals and a goal, and he fed the run of Andrew Gaff who collected 30 disposals on the outside.
Lachie Neale – 3
Hugh McLuggage – 2
Nic Natanui – 1
Geelong 11.11.77 def by Carlton 12.7.79
If Gold Coast defeating West Coast last week was upset of the season, then the Blues defeating Geelong at The Cattery is arguably even more shocking. After being up by as much as 42 points, the Blues survived a massive scare to hold on by just two points. Patrick Cripps led from the front with 24 disposals, 12 clearances and 2 goals, Sam Docherty racked up 23 disposals and 9 marks, while Jack Martin continues to impress with 18 disposals. Up forward Levi Casboult was a force with 11 disposals and 2 goals, while Eddie Betts wound back the clock with 12 disposals, 2 goals, 7 score involvements and a game-saving tackle in the dying seconds of the match. Mitch Duncan was best for Geelong with 24 disposals.
Patrick Cripps – 3
Jack Martin – 2
Eddie Betts – 1
Gold Coast 12.10.82 def Adelaide 4.5.29
The Gold Coast train is picking up momentum with two wins in a row, while Adelaide have hit rock bottom. Matthew Rowell has already been paid out by Sportsbet to win the Rising Star award, and now perhaps he has his eye on the Brownlow as well after picking up 20 disposals, 10 tackles and 2 goals in another best-on-ground performance. Touk Miller (26 disposals, 1 goal), Lachie Weller (21 disposals, 1 goal) and Brandon Ellis (20 disposals) also found plenty of footy while Ben King looks to be an emerging star up forward as he finished with 3 goals from 13 disposals and 6 marks.
Matthew Rowell – 3
Touk Miller – 1
Ben King – 1
Brandon Ellis - 1
Fremantle 6.5.41 def by Port Adelaide 10.10.70
Port Adelaide remain on top of the ladder as they accounted for Freo in wet conditions on the Gold Coast. Travis Boak may be leading the Brownlow count after Round 3, and his odds have been slashed after we recommended a play last week at $50. He’s now into just $17 after picking up 26 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances and a goal. The wet conditions also suited the return of Ollie Wines who was instrumental with 25 disposals, 6 clearances and a goal. Scott Lycett was the dominant big man with 37 hitouts and 12 disposals, while Nat Fyfe is a chance for votes with his 23 disposals and a goal in a losing effort.
Travis Boak – 3
Ollie Wines – 2
Nat Fyfe - 1
Essendon vs Melbourne - postponed
