Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Warwick Farm on Wednesday, March 25th.
With people confined to their homes, we've ramped up our racing coverage for Wednesday's metropolitan meeting in Sydney, covering every race of the day at Warwick Farm!
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips below!
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 25th
Best Bet: Race 2 - (9) Raison D'etre
Best Value: Race 8 - (3) Kaapfever
Competitive two-year-old race to kick off the program here. (6) Never Never River had one trial back in October but was put out straight after that. He's returned this time in with two stylish trials at Rosehill, where he did it comfortably from the front in both cases. He wasn't placed under much pressure in either of those, so there may still be a bit under the bonnet. From the inside draw he should kick up and lead this field, and I'm happy to take the punt on him at $4.80 on debut today. (2) Damaged also trialled very well leading into today. He's had the one career start, which came back in December last year, where he ran 2nd to Return With Honour. That's a decent form line for a midweek maiden like this. He found the line really nicely in his only trial and I expect him to go very close first up today. The interesting thing is, James McDonald rode him in that trial but actually takes the ride on the horse who nosed him out in that trial, (5) Long Weekend. I thought Damaged was quite clearly the better trial of the two, but JMac jumps on for Gary Portelli for raceday. It may have been a case of agreeing to the ride before the fields came out but it's interesting that he isn't on the Godolphin horse nonetheless. (3) Formentera might need longer but he showed good improvement from his first trial to his second trial.
(6) Never Never River
$4.80
Very keen on (9) Raison D'etre on debut here. Unlike the first race, James McDonald does take the ride for Godolphin on this filly after riding her in both of her trials. She was given a fairly easy time of things in both trials, the first she cruised to the line under minimal pressure, and in the second, she never got a clear crack at them in the straight but her final 100m was eye-catching, hitting the line strongly between runners. Barrier 2 makes things interesting because she was ridden dead quiet in her latest trial, but hopefully she can take up a position and be within striking distance at the top of the straight. (8) Miss Canada has run 2nd in both career starts and she didn't get much luck at all first up when caught wide. She draws the inside today and should get the run of the race. Both of these horses have been heavily backed in early betting!
You can leave me out of taking $1.55 for (3) Battleground. He's run 2nd in both career starts, beaten 0.2L and 0.3L, the latest of which was in the Gosford Guineas at the end of last year. A repeat of those performances certainly make him the horse to beat, but we've seen horses like this (especially from this ownership and stable) go down repeatedly at short odds. His trial certainly wasn't one that suggests I should be taking $1.55. The first two horses cruised past him like he was stuck to the ground, and even though I think he'll improve from that trial, I think he's way too short to be backing. I'd rather have an each way play on (5) Flinders, who comes up $6.00/$1.73. He's done very little in his first five career starts, but his two trials this time in have been significantly better than his two trials leading into his last campaign. Maybe he's matured a bit and has just come back a better horse. He gets his chance from the good draw. I'd be backing him each way or laying Battleground on the Betfair Exchange.
Tipping one of the Waterhouse/Bott runners to win this. (4) Castel Sant'angelo doesn't win out of turn but I think he can turn the tables on (3) Corncrake today. He ran 2nd to Corncrake at Kembla over this distance last start, beaten a length. He gets a couple things in his favour today. First, he gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Corncrake. More importantly, he was stepping up from 1800m to 2400m last start, so with that run over 2400m under his belt, he brings a much better platform into today's race. It was at this stage last preparation (fourth run back from a spell) that he started to peak and really produce his best, and he also gets to Warwick Farm, where Waterhouse/Bott enjoy a 27% strike rate. He's the obvious leader in the race and should take some running down. (7) Sacramento has had two starts for two wins this preparation, both in Canberra. His wins have been over 1600m and 2000m, and he steps up to 2400m for the first time today. This is a step up in grade but he's racing well. (5) Impavido looms as a place chance at $15. He had a six-week break after racing at the Gold Coast, and this is his third run back. Whenever he has a break, his first two runs back are poor. But he really peaks third up (four starts, four placings). The blinkers going back on are an indication that he's ready to show something and Bjorn Baker has 36% strike rate at Warwick Farm this season. This is his only runner of the day, so Impavido looks the clear value at the price.
Value: (5) Impavido $15
(4) Castel Sant'angelo
$3.75
I was with (6) Good Stock last start when he broke his maiden by 1.8L over this track and distance. He led all the way on that occasion and I think he can do so again here, albeit up in grade to a BM70. Waterhouse/Bott enjoy a 27% strike rate here at Warwick Farm this season and in a race with moderate speed, he'll take some running down. James McDonald rode (9) Kavalmo and (10) Rockarosa in their first up runs, and he sticks with Rockarosa today, which is a good hint for that runner who is the longer priced of the two stablemates. He ran well from the back of the field first up. Might still need another run and further but he can go close. Kavalmo is a chance too. He ran 3rd first up at Kensington behind Hilo. Hilo then came out and ran a really good race in Listed company on the weekend, so that form is very strong. He improved second up last preparation and can do so again. (2) Chat is John Thompson's only runner of the day. Thomspon has a 28% strike rate at Warwick Farm and this horse was a winner over track and distance a few starts ago. He's had some excuses since then but with the inside gate today, he'll get his chance to bounce back.
Found it hard to split (3) Segalas and (9) Military Magic. Segalas has returned in great order, with a first up win followed by a runner-up finish over 1200m here at Warwick Farm last start, when run down very late in the race. She carries the same weight today with Hugh Bowman again in the saddle, gets the same draw in barrier 8, with the only difference being the drop back to 1100m. She won third up last prep and she'll be right in the finish with even luck. I've leant the way of Military Magic though. She's undefeated from three career starts and she returns to the races with a nice trial under the belt. She cruised to the line without being pressured and looks to have returned in good order. She'll put herself right on the speed from the low draw and with Cejay Graham's 3kg claim, she carries just 52kg. She might take a sit behind the leaders so she will need some luck, but if she gets it, she looks to have found another winnable race. There is a couple to throw in at big odds here too. (6) Red Notice won first up at Newcastle before failing second up, but he always does that. He's never run a place from five starts when second up, but he has two wins from four starts when third up, so he tends to bounce back. The class is the query for him but at $23 he's worth including. The other is (7) Who's Knocking, also a $23 chance. She was beaten 2L in a decent race first up at Canberra. Her second up record is terrific, with three wins and a 2nd from four starts. She'll be well off the pace but look for her late. James McDonald takes the ride on (2) Rancho Notorious which catches the eye.
Value: (6) Red Notice $23 & (7) Who's Knocking $23
Not much stands out here. (5) Beach Baby returned with a win at Goulburn, which was his first start in over a year. He produced a dominant win second up last campaign and I expect him to take plenty of improvement off that first up run, so he could win again given he finds a winnable midweek race. (2) Intrinsic doesn't win out of turn but similarly, she finds a race she can be competitive in again. She ran 2nd here two starts ago over track and distance. She's only placed three times from 10 starts at the distance though. (4) Jetski won first up last prep and does have some metro form but the jockey booking somewhat concerns me. (9) Feather was a good winner last start for us but the stable has no winners from 20 runners at Warwick Farm this season and she comes back in distance and is likely to get wet ground which she doesn't like, so she won't be winning in my opinion. If (15) Power Of Attorney manages to gain a run, he's not the worst chance at $35. His first up run was good and he won second up last prep.
(3) Kaapfever was a winner at big odds last start and I see no reason why he can't be a player here again at double figure odds. He always takes a couple runs to come good - he's only placed in one of his eight starts when first or second up, but he's placed in all four starts when third up. Now that he's fit and in winning form, he can go on with it. He's never missed a place from six starts at Warwick Farm (three wins), four of which were over this distance, and his overall record at the mile is very good, with eight top-three finishes from 11 starts. He goes better on wet ground than firm and he's likely to get conditions to suit here, so at $11 he looks a great each way bet. (5) Cisco Bay also gets conditions to suit. He gets the blinkers applied for the first time today so should improve on his last run. (8) Loveseat trialled well and has run well first up in the past, it's just whether she might find the mile a touch sharp first up. (10) Gone Bye is another who finds a nice race and can improve on his first up run. He was a huge drifter in betting first up but I suspect we'll see him improve significantly for that run, and he showed enough talent in his first prep to suggest he can win this. He's a $7.00 chance and I'll be backing him at that price. Kaapfever and Gone Bye the two for me.
Also backing: (10) Gone Bye $7.00
