Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, January 25th.
We have a nine-race card featuring the Listed Carrington Stakes this afternoon, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the True position. Saturday.
We've gone through every race on the card and given our tips and best bets below!
Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, January 25th
Best Bet: Race 6 - (3) Helga
Best Value Bet: Race 5 - (4) Valentino Rossa
The two-year-old race containing $3.7million worth of Snowden colts in the form of (2) Mount Fuji and (3) Rulership. Mount Fuji cost $2.8m and Rulership $900k. Both have trialled well but it's hard to know what they're going to show on debut and you should rarely judge a horse by its price tag. The stable are very good trainers of juveniles though and will have them well educated, but they're also grand final trainers. (10) Tight Ropes appeals at $6.50 as an each way bet. She won her first trial stylishly, albeit in a field of four, before again trialling well in a very quick trial behind a tearaway leader. I liked the way she found the line despite being asked little. (1) Mission River is also a good price at $6.50 for Gerald Ryan, another great trainer of two-year-olds. Robbie Dolan takes the ride and he's ridden five winners from 17 rides for the stable this season.
Something small on Tight Ropes and Mission River to upset the favourites but no need to bet big here.
Value: (1) Mission River $6.50
The first of two Highway Handicaps on the day. It looks a very difficult race but I'll have something each way on (7) Don't Cry Mama, which is the least experienced horse in the field. He was $16 into $10 on debut on the Gold Coast, where he came from back in the field to run 3rd, and then came out second up and won at Coffs Harbour. Third up now and up to 1100m, he still looks to have plenty of room for improvement and that could be enough to see him competitive at double figure odds.
The second of the Highways. (6) Blitzar goes on top. He was a touch unlucky not to be undefeated in his first preparation. He resumed from a spell at Wagga where he was trapped wide without cover the entire trip, loomed up into the race at the top of the straight but understandably ran out of gas. Tommy Berry takes over from Aaron Sweeney as he comes to town today and with a perfect run in transit, he should be hard to beat.
A 2000m race with three Waller runners in the eight horse field. Waller will probably win but who knows with what horse? (1) Dabiyr won last start with an apprentice on - something you don't often see from the Waller camp. Third up and up to 2000m now, he has to meet the runner-up from last start 3kg worse off at the weights but he might still prove too classy. That runner up was (5) Matowi who is flying this campaign. He's finished in the money in his past three starts, and the two prior to that he had no luck at all. He's yet to miss the money in five starts at Randwick so he'll be right in the finish somewhere. (7) Guise was a notable drifter last start and pulled up lame post-race. Prior to that her form was good so watch the market and it should tell you if she will bounce back or not.
Very interesting runner this favourite (9) Mugatoo, who makes his Australian debut for Australian Bloodstock and Kris Lees. It's hard to know how to assess him. He's only lightly raced with six career starts but his two victories came over 2300m and 2900m, so first up at the mile has to be some query. (4) Valentino Rossa at $13 is the horse I'll be backing. He always runs terribly first up from a spell - he's never placed in seven attempts - but he improves out of sight second up, with four wins from six starts. First up last prep he ran 9th of 12 and then came out and won by more than 4L second up. So don't take any notice of the fact he was second-last first up, he should improve and run a good race today. (6) All Too Soon doesn't have a good record at this track and distance but he's another I expect to improve second up. He had no luck when caught wide the trip first up but he battled on well enough. He has a good second up record so can go well.
(4) Valentino Rossa E/W
$13
Looks another nice race for (3) Helga, who has returned in good order this preparation with a narrow 3rd placing followed by a win last start. Both runs have been at this track and the step up to the mile looks no issue at all third up. The draw is slightly tricky but we saw her ridden forward to sit ouside the leader last start and that could be the go once again here. She'll be hard to beat. (7) Hokkaido Miss could run a good race at big odds first up with two trials under the belt. $4.40 for her to place isn't the worst bet.
(11) Southern Lad has been backed as if unbeatable in early betting but he's short enough for mine now. I'm attracted to the $7.00 for (6) Gaulois, who ran fairly first up but tends to go really well second up. He's placed in five of his six starts when second up and he's got a good record at both the track and the distance. He's trialled nicely since his first up run and should be spot on for this. (5) Redouble is racing very well and gets his chance, while (7) Sambro had no luck at all last start and still finished well to run 3rd.
Watch the market here as it could tell you plenty, but there's a number of horses to include in the quaddie leg here. (11) True Detective goes on top at $8.00 each way. He promised the world but failed to live up to much of the hype last prep. He returns here as a gelding and Bowman is booked straight away after a very soft trial. He's drawn a bit awkward out in barrier 12 but if the gelding operation has a positive impact on him, he'll run a big race here. (10) Pandemic is a talented horse. They put the money on for his first two starts last prep and they were spot on, so if he firms in betting, that's a pretty good sign. Barrier 1 will be a tricky one for Berry to negotiate as he tends to get back in his races. (8) Sir Elton has his fair share of talent but this is a hard race. He was brought undone by Haut Brion Her last prep, but she went on to win a G2 so the form is pretty reasonable. (2) Oriental Runner, (4) Safado, (6) All Cylinders all have claims and can be included.
(11) True Detective E/W
$8.00
The form around (5) Superium looks pretty strong. He won first up over 1100m here, where he beat Embracer, but Embracer turned the tables on him over 1200m last start. That form was further franked when Embracer came out last week and won again, so with even luck from the wide gate, Superium should take plenty of beating here. The main query is the step up to 1400m for the first time, given all three career victories have been over 1100m.
