Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, January 18th.
It's set to be a wet one at Rosehill, with nine races on a heavy deck after a few stormy days in Sydney. Racing expert @Tim_Tips is back from a freshen up to preview the entire meting below!
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, January 18th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (6) Stella Sea Sun
Best Value Bet: Race 7 - (1) Connemara & (8) River Bird
They've jumped out of trees in ealry betting to support the current favourite (7) Cellsabeel. She's had one career run, which came in the $1million Golden Gift, where she ran 4th after coming from basically last in the run. Her final 600m was the best of the race. She returns from 10 weeks off having had two trials leading into this, winning both. The blinkers go on for the first time today and so long as she handles the heavy ground, she should prove very hard to beat. That's the obvious query though. (1) Return With Honour won well on debut and it's hard to knock any Gerald Ryan two-year-old with winning form. There are two at good odds to include. The first of those is the Snowden-trained (6) Lord Of War at $26. He started $4.40 on debut in the same race as Return With Honour but was caught wide without cover throughout. McEvoy takes over from Christian Reith today and the Snowden stable is absolutely flying with their juveniles. I suggest he can improve sharply today. (12) Princess Zeddy is another at double figures to include. She trialled well for Gary Moore and Tim Clark, should go forward and give a good sight.
Value: (6) Lord Of War $26
This is one of the hardest Highways I've seen in a while. (1) Show Me The Honey didn't get any luck at all in a similar race last start, held up the entire straight. Big jockey change today with McEvoy taking over from Billy Owen but he'll need luck again from the inside gate. The other concern is he failed badly on a heavy track at this stage of his last prep. (3) Dubai Tycoon ran well in a harder race last start, finishing 5th after only getting clear at the 150m mark. His only start on wet ground was a win so he must be included. (5) Sennacherib won in Canberra two starts ago and got no luck at all last start in a similar race at Kensington. He only got clear very late in the race and should have finished much closer. Again, the concern is his only start on heavy ground prior to today, he finished last. (6) Absolute Trust is the favourite, coming into this with two wins from three career starts. He wasn't beaten that far first up in a similar race to this, and then went back to the bush and won well. He'll be up on pace and so long as he handles the track, he'll be tough to beat. (8) Who's Shout won very well first up in Canberra before running well in defeat in a similar race to this last start. He was forced to duck and weave a bit in the straight and he recorded the fastest final 400m of the race. His wet form isn't bad at all so I'd expect him to run a very good race third up here. (10) Successful Day has finished 4th in both starts this preparation. She sat wide the trip last start so did well to finish as close as she did. This is a step up in class from the Class 1 races she's been contesting, but she did run 2nd at his only start on heavy ground so she can be included.
(1) Lashes returned with an impressive win first up at Kensington two weeks ago and if she's improved off that, she'll take plenty of beating here. The race was set up for her on that occasion - they overdid it up front and allowed her to come over the top - but she's got a bt of quality about her. Her wet form is good enough to suggest she'll take plenty of beating again today. (2) Press Box looks a touch of value at double figure odds. She's never missed a place first up from a spell and there's a good argument to be made that she should have finished much closer than she did in The Kosciuszko last time we saw her. That form reads pretty well for a race like this. She did fail on heavy ground at her only attempt, but I think that had more to do with her going poorly that preparation. If you're not keen on $1.80 for the favourite, perhaps $4.20 the place for Press Box is another option (paying two places only). (5) Echo Gem drops in grade and (6) Switched is racing well.
It's a competitive little race but to my eye, (6) Stella Sea Sun looks one of the bets of the day at $2.60. She ran a great race first up to be beaten less than half-a-length by Aquitaine at Randwick, when not everything went completely right for her either. She's undefeated second up from a spell, James McDonald takes over from Sam Clenton, and she's won three of her four starts on wet ground. She's also never finished out of the top two at this distance. The speed map in the small field is some little query but I'm expecting her to win this and I'm pretty confident. (3) Jen Rules is flying and if Stella Sea Sun is below par, she can definitely win again. Happy enough to take on (7) Julian Rock.
One of the least confident races of the day for me. (6) Unguarded each way will be my bet in the race at around $9.00. She's improved with each run this prep and comes into this third up today. Drops 4kg in weight, Bowman takes over, she's won on heavy ground before and can run a good race at her best. (3) Big Parade is lightly raced and has plenty of ability. He resumed with a dominant win at Gosford before being beaten less than a length last time out in what was a strong race. He won on soft ground on debut but the heavy ground is a little query, while the step up to 1300m is also an unknown given he's bred by Deep Field. (8) Aim For Perfection should show improvement today. She started the $2.40 favourite first up but didn't do a great deal. The blinkers come off today and the rise in trip should suit.
(2) Inanup beat subsequent winner Yamazaki last time out despite sitting three-wide the trip. He's some sort of a query on the heavy deck but he's racing in good form and should be capable of winning this third up from a spell. (7) He's A Hotshot is also racing well, with three placings from as many starts this prep. In fact, he's only missed a placing once from his nine starts. The form behind Jen Rules from last start looks fairly good for this race and he should get his chance from a good draw. The query is the heavy ground - his only unplaced effort came on soft ground. (4) Tony's Reward keeps running well. He was beaten less than a length by Embracer last start. The query is he's 0/8 at the distance. (5) Dio D'Oro has been the subject of good market support in early betting. He resumes as a gelding today, has trialled well and his only career wins have all been on wet ground. They all came as a two-year-old though and he hasn't won since, so I'll take him on. (10) High Cost and (11) Magnarock are two roughies to include.
Probably the most competitive race of the day. They could go pretty quick up front with (6) Embracer and (4) Invictus Salute likely to be the two frontrunners. Both are in terrific form. Embracer has two wins from three starts this prep and comes off a win over 1200m at Randwick last start. Invictus Salute won over this track and distance two starts ago before being run down late last start. They aren't the only two in the race though and there's a couple of others that appeal at longer odds. (1) Connemara was super consistent last prep, with six placings and a win from seven starts. She resumes from a spell today and while this may be a touch short of her best, she was very competitive over 1200m first up last prep when beaten a nose. She's been very competitive in better races than this and she's got good form on the heavy ground. (8) River Bird is another who improved out of sight last prep, with four wins from six starts, including a win first up. She's got two wins and a 2nd from three starts on heavy ground, so it would be no surprise to see her run very well today, especially if she's firm in the market. Something small on those two at each way odds.
Value: (1) Connemara $9.50
(5) Mr Dependable was ridden far too quick in front last weekend and if he's not flat from that run on the quick back up, he'll be the one to beat. He started a very well backed $1.50 pop on that occasion and was only run down late, but he was entitled to get tired given how quick they went. Outside of him, there's a bit of value though. (2) Dylan's Romance always needs a few runs to come good but fourth up, up to 2000m and with a wet deck, he gets his chance to improve sharply at big odds. (3) Mercurial Lad won at big odds at Kensington last start, where he led all the way. I doubt he will lead this but he does have four wins from five starts on heavy ground to his name. He's $26, while one of the horses he beat is a $4.00 pop. (7) Killer Instinct represents the red hot form stable of John O'Shea. He's got two wins from three starts this prep and the rise to 2000m only looks to suit him further. He's drawn wide but the stable is flying and he's now won four of his past five starts so he must be included at each way odds. Looks the biggest danger to the favourite. (13) Magic Over The Bay next best. Backing Mr Dependable and Killer Instinct, but can also play trifectas with 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 13.
Value: (7) Killer Instinct $7.50
I'm not hugely keen on taking $1.80 for (8) Bandersnatch but there's nothing else in the race I can find to beat him so he goes on top. He won his first two starts this prep by a combined 6.5L margin, before being run down in the final 100m last start. He should lead this and take a stack of beating. (9) Welsh Legend trialled well recently and JMac goes on for Waller first up, but the query is she's never run a place first up from a spell. (13) Vee Eight has a great record on heavy ground so can be thrown in at cricket score odds, while (6) Muswellbrook should be competitive in this field.
