Week 2 of the 2019 AFL Finals kicks off on Friday night with a blockbuster clash between Geelong and West Coast. First bounce will be at approximately 7:50pm at the MCG.
We’re providing multiple tips play for each of the semi-finals this weekend. We’ll be kicking things off with our best head-to-head play, then we’ll follow up with a couple of prop bets that we believe are also great value.
Make sure you check out our AFL Tips Page regularly to find all our other AFL related betting tips throughout the finals series!
AFL Semi-Finals Betting Tips
Geelong Cats vs West Coast Eagles
Friday, 7:50pm AEST, MCG
Yes, Geelong fans, your ‘home’ final will again be at the MCG. This time, at least it’s against an interstate club, so it will actually feel more like an advantage.
Geelong
The Cats will be looking to avoid becoming the first minor premier to be knocked out in straight sets since the top eight was introduced in 1994. They were thoroughly beaten by the Magpies last weekend, even if the scoreboard says it was only 10 points. The Pies were a couple down on the bench in the last quarter and simply went into survival mode. The Cats have now lost 10 of their 13 finals since winning the 2011 premiership.
West Coast
The Eagles were at their best in their first final of 2019. They were far too good for the out-of-form Bombers, defeating them by a whopping 55 points. All of the usual suspects were racking up big numbers in the midfield, but Jamie Cripps was probably best afield with his 22 touches and four goals. The Eagles shot themselves in the foot when they dropped out of the top four at the end of the home and away season and now must do it the hard way if they’re to repeat last season’s heroics.
History
West Coast lead Geelong 26-25 in the all-time head-to-head count between these clubs. Interestingly, the home team has won 10 of the last 11 times they’ve played.
Last five meetings:
2019 R6 – Geelong (104) defeated West Coast (46)
2018 R3 – West Coast (95) defeated Geelong (80)
2017 R13 – West Coast (83) defeated Geelong (70)
2016 R7 – Geelong (123) defeated West Coast (79)
2015 R9 – West Coast (120) defeated Geelong (64)
Match Prediction
The bookies can’t split them, and neither can we. While, the home team has had great success in this match-up historically, the Eagles have a far better record in finals in recent seasons. We’re expecting a really tight game between two quality sides giving their all to avoid elimination. We’ll be playing the Either Team by 19 or Less market at around even odds.
Either Team by 19 or Less
$1.91
Goalscorer Market
These clubs have played their part in some fairly high-scoring matches over the past couple of years, so the over 153.5 points market does seem like OK value. However, we prefer the odds on some of the players to kick multiple goals. Firstly, we LOVE the Gary Ablett 2+ Goals market at Sportsbet. As we all know, Gary is one of the greatest of all time and is a proven goalkicker. He kicked 2+ goals in 13/21 matches in the home and away season and kicked two against the Eagles when they met in Round 6 this year. Ablett would be the first to admit he was well below his best against the Magpies last weekend, but you can almost guarantee he’ll bounce back with a bang. More than happy to be on him to kick 2+ and 3+ at fantastic odds.
VALUE: Ablett 3+ Goals $6.50
Gary Ablett 2+ Goals
$2.63
Disposal Market
There’s some great value in the disposal markets for this clash, but our favourite has to be Patrick Dangerfield’s line. Set at just 29.5, we expect him to eclipse that rather comfortably. Patty was easily the Cats best in their 10-point loss to Collingwood last weekend. He finished with 32 disposals and was the catalyst to their fourth quarter surge. While he only averaged 27.5 disposals over the season, Dangerfield has ramped it up over his past four games where he’s collected 33, 36, 34 and 32 touches. In Dangerfield’s last three meetings with the Eagles he’s amassed 30, 33, 34 touches, so it all bodes well for him having another big outing.
Dangerfield Over 29.5 Disposals
$1.86
Same Game Multi
If you’re a punter that likes a small stake for a huge potential return, then have a crack at our Same Game Multi at Sportsbet. Also, you’ll get bonus back up to $50 at Sportsbet if one leg fails, so it’s definitely worth a swing.
Leg 1 – Total Match Points Over 153.5
Leg 2 – Gary Ablett to Kick 2+ Goals
Leg 3 – Patrick Dangerfield Over 29.5 Disposals
3-Leg Same Game Multi
$7.75
