Round 18 of the 2019 AFL Premiership Season begins on Friday night with the Crows hosting the Bombers at Adelaide Oval. This important clash will be followed by another big five-game slate on Saturday and a three-game slate on Sunday.
Head to our AFL Tips Page for a bunch of content for Round 18 in the AFL including previews and tips for EVERY GAME.
AFL Round 18 Friday Night Betting Tips
Adelaide Crows vs Essendon Bombers (7:50pm AEST, AO)
Both sides have struggled for consistency this season, leaving them in a really tight race to make the finals, and making this an absolute must-watch! Being the home team, the Crows will start at around two-and-a-half goal favourites.
Adelaide Crows
The Crows bounced back from an embarrassing Showdown loss to beat the Suns by a whopping 95 points. They put up a score of 151 and had great returns from most of their key players. Eddie Betts bagged six majors, Josh Jenkins kicked four, while Tex Walker and first gamer Tyson Stengle kicked three apiece. IT was a much-needed percentage booster for the Crows who now find themselves in seventh position on the ladder.
Consistency has been the Achilles heel of the Crows this season. The gap between their best and worst performance is far too great for them to be considered contenders at this point in time, although a big win over the Bombers on Friday night would help restore a bit of faith.
Essendon Bombers
The Bombers won an absolute thriller against the Kangaroos last weekend. Cult hero Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti played the game of his life and kicked the winning goal with just seconds remaining. He finished with a team high four goals to go along with 19 disposals. Jake Stringer also continued his strong form with three goals from 16 touches, while Zach Merrett lead the team in disposals with 34.
The Bombers most recent win made it five wins from their past six outings. What’s most impressive is their ability to grind out the close games. They’ve won their past three matches by a combined 21 points, which is something we haven’t seen from them in the past. The Bombers now find themselves inside the top eight with a season record of 9-7. On a sour note, gun defender Michael Hurley is likely to miss the rest of 2019 with an injury he picked up against the Kangaroos last weekend.
History
The all-time head-to-head record is tied at 19-19 between these teams. The Crows have had the better of the Bombers in four of their last five meetings, although the Bombers won the last time they played.
Last five meetings:
2018 R1 – Essendon (99) defeated Adelaide (87)
2017 R21 – Essendon (80) lost to Adelaide (123)
2017 R4 – Adelaide (153) defeated Essendon (88)
2016 R19 – Adelaide (143) defeated Essendon (61)
2015 R20 – Essendon (59) lost to Adelaide (171)
Key Betting Statistics
- Adelaide has scored 80+ in each of its last eight vs Essendon
- Adelaide has scored 153 and 143 in its last two home matches vs Essendon
- The Total Points line (158.5) has been cleared in eight straight Adelaide vs Essendon meetings
Prediction
The Crows come into this fixture as 14.5-point favourites, which seems about right considering the form each of these sides are in, coupled with the growing injury list of the Bombers. While we do expect the Crows to win, we see now value in their head-to-head market, so we’ve opted to make a play on something we’re more confident with.
We mentioned above that these teams historically have high-scoring contests and we expect that to continue in what’s expected to be great weather on Friday night. The Bombers have scored 70+ points in each of their last six matches, while the Crows are coming off a match in which they scored 151. We expect both teams to hit the scoreboard, resulting in the total points line being eclipsed.
Total Points Over 158.5
$1.88
