2014 NFL – Week 6 Preview and Betting Picks
Last week ended up being okay after a Tuesday morning saver. Hopefully we can find more winners this weekend and ensure our 2014 NFL betting stays in profit! As usual, will be previewing and offering free picks for five NFL games.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Friday at 11:25am)
Thursday Night Football heads over to NRG Stadium the home the Houston Texans as they host AFC Rivals the Indianapolis Colts. Now before you jump right on Andrew Luck’s coattails let’s just stop for a minute and think.
The Colts and Andrew Luck are very easy to like and place your money on. The line is -2.5 and there’s something that just doesn’t feel right about it. They are coming off an okay win in week five against Baltimore 20-13 at home. They also hold a very impressive 11-1-1 Thursday night football record. My question I guess is; why aren’t we seeing a line closer to -6.5/7.0? If this is going to be so “easy” for the Colts.
BEWARE OF THE HOME DOG
Houston are currently home underdogs at +2.5-+3.5 depending on your sports book.
The Houston Texans are coming off a tough overtime loss at Dallas.
The home team has won four out of five in Thursday Night Football games in 2014.
Psychologically this game will mean even more winning at home in terms of “lets defend our house” type of mentality. I also believe this will be a low scoring hard fought out game that is won in the trenches. Leaning UNDER 46.5 total points.
Texans running back Arian Foster is the key. He ran for 157 yards and two touchdowns last week and although the Colts have been impressive stopping the run, they have not allowed a 100 rusher this year. This trend cant last all year.
Off a short week. I’m going against the grain. Take the home dog.
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UPDATE
Tough loss on Friday. Those last two drives by the Houston Texans were disgraceful. However there is one thing that is really starting to stand out in the NFL. The team with the better quarterback is not only winning but covering all these spreads that Vegas are putting out. In the past, defences had a far greater chance at impacting a game then they do now.
It’s clear that the NFL is treating the quarterbacks as a “protective species”. Quarterbacks, especially the elite ones create more points and more highlights which boost’s TV rating’s which means MORE MONEY. Moving forward let’s see if we can take advantage of this.
It also looks apparent the odds makers in Vegas may still be wrestling with the new rule changes. These are the quarterbacks that a covering the spread 50% or more of the time so far this season: Aaron Rogers, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Russel Wilson and Andrew Luck to name a few.
The New York Jets and Jacksonville are both 0-5 ATS.
OVER OR UNDER?
The game totals are also being affected by the new rule changes. These quarterbacks are currently covering 60% or more: Andrew Luck, Jay Cutler, Nick Foles, Drew Brees, Aaron Rogers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan.
Although not all of these quarterbacks are elite, they are in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks and are definitely being favoured by the rule changes in 2014.
CLEVELAND
The Cleveland Browns are currently a statistical anomaly. They are by no means elite in any way including quarterback yet they hold a perfect 4-0 ATS record and a 4-0 OVER record. Possibly undervalued by Vegas or maybe just overachieving through their first 4 games, either way I’m avoiding them for now.
Check out the NFL betting tips below for three Monday morning games and the Tuesday morning game!
2014 NFL Week 6 Best Betting Picks
Consider placing your bets at Palmerbet. In 2014, Palmerbet is offering $2 lines on all NFL games – great for Aussies looking to find some extra value betting on American Football.
Houston Texans at the line (+3.5) - $2.00 at Palmerbet *
New England Patriots (-2.5) - $2.00 at Palmerbet **
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) - $2.00 at Palmerbet **
Denver Broncos (–9.0) - $2.00 at Palmerbet *
San Francisco 49ers at the line (-3.0) - $2.00 at Palmerbet *
