Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on ANZAC Day, Thursday, April 25th.
The Listed VRC St Leger (2800m) headlines the eight-race card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 8m.
We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below.
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Mantastic
Best Value Bet: Race 6 Navarro Lad
RACE 1
2500m race to kick things off. The lightly-raced Bass looks the one to beat here, after going down narrowly on his Australian debut two weeks ago. That was his first start in 637 days (90 weeks), so he surely has a fair bit of improvement to come fitness-wise. Stepping up from 1800m to 2500m is always a slight concern but this stable knows what they're doing with stayers and the horse did win over 2500m at his second career start so he's at least proven he can run the trip. Stablemate Belgravia could be the value at $15. He looks like he's ready to go close now at his fourth run back from a spell. He comes off a 2400m run where he was beaten 3.1L, but he ran the second-fastest final 400m and 200m of the race. Valac is the one they'll have to chase down. He carries just 51kg and has finished runner-up in his past two starts. Self Sense is absolutely flying - he won two in a row before a luckless run in the G2 Chairmans in Sydney. He was wide without cover all race and was still just 1.5L off the subsequent Sydney Cup winner. Carries 61kg but has plenty of class on his side.
RACE 2
Good little race and a tricky betting affair. Order Of Command is probably the best straight track horse in the race. He resumes with the blinkers on for the first time here, which is ominous. This stable/jockey combination has been going particularly well of late and the horse has won two from three when first up, so expect he'll go very close. Bandipur kept his unblemished third uip record intact last start with a win over 1200m at Caulfield. He drops back to the 1000m straight here, a track and distance he's won at previously. That victory came at the same stage of his last preparation (fourth run in) and he also defeated Invincible Al by 1.4L on that occasion. Invincible Al resumes from a spell and it's hard to know how fit he will be with just the one very quiet trial under the belt. The stable are very sneaky but also very astute, so watch the market. While his first up record isn't as strong as his second up record, he does tend to be around the mark when fresh. He's got a good record at the track and distance and carries just 51.5kg here. What sways me to the other two is the fact they are ridden by D Oliver and C Williams, while Nathan Punch takes the ride on Invincible Al. The each way play in the race is probably Written Choice, who is a real speedster and resumes as a gelding. He could be the one to cause the upset. Leaning towards Order Of Command, likely to save on Bandipur.
RACE 3
Super Seth has the big weight to carry here, but he looks a super talented prospect. His win last start almost had to be seen to be believed. He was stuck at the back of the field rounding the turn, behind a wall of horses, but steamed home over the top of them to win by a length on the line. He was backed as if unbeatable that day and he did an incredible job to win. As mentioned, he carries 59kg while the rest of the field carries 54-54.5kg, but I think he's good enough to overcome that. Deserved was set to win on debut and justified the market support. She looks the best of the fillies in the race but I don't think she'll be able to match it with the colt.
RACE 4
Not really interested in betting much here. There's a mix of horses out of form and horses coming out of terrible races. Declares War hasn't been the same horse under Matt Cumani's care that he was while with Darren Weir. He returns as a gelding here and he gets one more chance to rediscover his form. He should get his chance on the big Flemington track, where he can wind up. He won over this track and distance at his final start for Weir back in December. Jennevee could be one to include in numbers at $23. She had no luck at all first up but atoned for that with her maiden victory at Werribee last start. The horse she beat then came out and won its next start. Zalatte has been running in significantly harder races in Sydney. She pulled up lame two starts ago and then had no cover the entire trip last start. Drops back in grade here and also gets back onto firm ground. She should really be giving this a good shake. Analytica and Vow And Declare others to include.
RACE 5
Zoutari resumed with a sound win at Pakenham over 1200m. While I typically tend to avoid backing Pakenham form, this horse was competitive in some good races last preparation. Should improve up to 1400m and Craig Williams is a strong jockey booking. Looks hard to beat, but I found it difficult to split him and Big Night Out. Big Night Out was sound first up over 1200m and improved nicely second up at 1400m to win. He was competing against similar horses to that of Zoutari last preparation, such as Ranier, Wild Planet and Ringerdingding. I think the value is proably Outrageous, who won over this track and distance first up. He's been a bit disappointing in his past to starts but he didn't get a lot of luck last start when trapped wide without cover. If he can begin cleanly and take up a forward position, he should be in the finish. Muswellbrook not hopeless at odds.
RACE 6
Siding with Transact in the VRC St Leger. Gai Waterhouse has won three of the last six editions of this race, including last year with Runaway. Transact has placed in his past three races, including a runner-up finish in the Listed Galillee Series Final at Caulfield last time out. I think there's little doubt he will lead in this race, and they'll try to run everything else into the ground. At $5.50 I'm happy to have a decent each way bet. Stars Of Carrum is the $2.20 favourite, which looks a poisonous price to me. Sure, he comes out of some much harder races than this, such as the Alister Clark Stakes, Mornington Cup and most recently, the Australian Derby, but he's a winner of just one race from 15 starts. This will be his seventh race of the campaign. He's plenty short enough in the market. Navarro Lad is one at big odds I'd be throwing in. This is just his third career start but he improved greatly from his debut run to his second run and this stable shouldn't be taken lightly in this sort of race. $31 looks a big price and I'll be having something on. Jenstar not hopeless.
RACE 7
Keen to back two here. Mantastic looks very well placed. This will be his fourth run of the preparation and he comes into it on the back of a 2nd placing in the Listed Golden Mile at Bendigo. Prior to that he won the Listed CS Hayes Cup in Adelaide. He's likely to need a bit of luck in the straight from barrier 5 as he tends to get back in his races, but if he can get to the outside, he'll be motoring home. The interesting runner and possibly the value in the race is Happy Pharell at $9.00. He's a French Group 3 winner with four career victories to his name, ranging from 1600m-2100m. This is his first run in Australia and although he's looked pretty plain in his two trials, he gets blinkers on for the first time today and should be competitive on his French form.
RACE 8
Not keen to bet much, this race is fairly insipid. Winkelmann won first up at the Valley and although I backed her on that occasion, I'm not sure I'd be buttering up again here. She kind of picks herself on default, but she tends to not go on with it second up and she got absolutely every favour in winning that race at the Valley. Temple Of Bel is working towards another win, but she's been doing that for a fair while now. She's won just two of her 15 career starts and her racing pattern tends to mean she looks good flashing home from the back of the field, but never gets herself in a position to win. The exact same can be said for Hussy's Glow. Flop has been running well over in South Australia and if he had have drawn off the rail I'd be interested, but drawing barrier 1 is a negative for her. Araaja is fresh on the scene, having just her second run this preparation, while most of the others have been going around for some time. But even she hasn't shown enough to suggest she's going to win one soon. Pria Eclipse will lead and so she isn't the worst bet in the race. At least she'll give you a sight for your money and she generally runs a place. She carries just 51kg so she'll get her chance from the front. Lady Selkirk hasn't done anything in a while but this is the kind of race she could pop up in at 50/1. She's undefeated in two starts at the track and distance and although they were some time ago, it's that sort of race. I couldn't tip you into anything with any confidence here. Maybe something very small on Pria Eclipse and Lady Selkirk.
