Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Mornington on Saturday, March 15th.
The Mornington meeting is the standalone metropolitan racing meeting in Victoria, with all eyes set to be on the Golden Slipper meeting in at Rosehill in Sydney.
The Mornington track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position. We have betting tips and comments for every race below!
Over at Rosehill, it's Golden Slipper Day - you can find our preview for the meeting HERE and also be sure to listen to the Before You Bet Podcast below!
MORNINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Trap For Fools
Best Value: Race 8 Glenall
Lay Of The Day: Race 2 Miss Toorak Flyer
Race 1: BM78 Handicap 1600m
Battlecamp doesn’t win out of turn, it is safe to say that, but there is a lot to like about the way that he has been finishing off his races this prep. He was super resuming at Flemington (was hit on the nose with another whip in the run home), went to Sandown and was well back in the run again before being ridden for luck and running on hard between runners. He will obviously need all the favours as he will get back in the run, the mile looks ideal and love the jockey change with Baster going on. He should be eating up the ground late, presuming the track is playing fair with the rail in the true position.
Race 2: BM78 Handicap1000m
The betting will most likely say that it is a three-horse race, but I am betting up on one of the best of the day here, Star Fall. He and Miss Leonidas will go forward but he has the advantage of being drawn inside her, so the jockey should have the option to kick up underneath her and make her sit outside him, or make her work to the front, she will give a kick in the straight and he should be straight off her back and too goo in the run home. Miss Leonidas is first-up so if she uses any petrol in either scenario, she will be found wanting late. Miss Toorak Flyer is the other in commission but she will be giving them a start and would prefer here over further, she is coming back in trip.
Race 3: BM78 Handicap 1200m
It looks an open race on paper but am quietly confident on one at an each-way quote in Enigman. He has had two runs back this time in, there was 6 weeks before the fresh run and his second-up effort, and has had another 5-week freshen up since. He usually gets back to mid-field or worse but with the blinkers applied here today for the first time, they can really sharpen him up and see him settle closer early in the race. He beat home Streets Of Avalon fresh, he has a stack of ability, and then was a little flat in a much harder race last time at Flemington. Love the claim, you lose very little with Nugent going on, he is riding super. Anything better than each-way odds looks a bet to nothing.
Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM70 1200m
Not a lot of confidence here, mainly with the jockey, but Music Bay does look to have plenty of upside. She was beaten as a very short-priced favourite when resuming, shew was left a little flat-footed but kept chasing and was solid through the line. She has a 6 beside her name at her last second-up effort but that was a Thousand Guineas prelude and she wasn’t beaten far and pulled up lame. If the girl can get the right run, she looks the likely winner.
Race 5: Mornington Sires’ 2YO Set Weights 1500m
Most of these came through the same form-line so we can assess their runs on their merit, but with these babies, they can improve so much from run-to-run, especially those that are early in their prep. Really Discreet will start a short-priced favourite, but once again how confident can we be with Kayla Crowther on a short-priced horse on the city stage? Don’t get me wrong, she has the ability but sometimes the pressure can tell when riding one that is “expected” to win. (A Darmanin made me eat my words with that theory last week!). Serengeti was on debut in that Sires race at Flemington last time, he got well back before doing his best work late and he would have taken plenty froom that run. Getting out to the 1500m looks to suit and he is drawn beautifully, he looks a great place bet if there remains eight runners and three dividends.
Race 6: BM90 Handicap 2000m
Steel Prince is so consistent, he won when resuming over 1800m at Sandown three weeks ago after a peach of a ride. There is never a lot of confidence about these 90 grade middle distance affairs, it was a super effort to get him ready to go at that trip after a 4-month break. He looks to have come back well, if he gets to each-way odds he looks a safe bet to nothing.
Race 7: Mornington Cup Handicap 2400m
Trap For Fools was the Group One McKinnon winner in the Spring, he has been going super and looks the leader. He ticks so many boxes, he can roll along at a good tempo and get them off the bit a long way out but he won’t want it turned into a sit-sprint as he doesn’t really have that turn-of-foot. The winner here is straight into the Caulfield Cup, we will be seeing him there in October. When you think that the second favourite is Stars of Carrum who has won one race, sure he has some upside but anything in black figures looks good for Trap For fools. He will be too classy.
Race 8: Hareeba Stakes Handicap 1200m
Tough race with a full field going around over 1200m, a real good mixture of speed horses and back-markers that will appreciate the likely good tempo. The big field will ensure that no doubt there will be some hard-luck stories, so I am sticking with one that is dropping in class and is well drawn. Glenall is not brilliant but looks suited the way the race will be run. He will camped in behind them early when the speed is on, although he hasn’t been close in his last couple, he has stuck on ok and drops a stack in class. His last two have been in the Lightning and Newmarket, this field is significantly weaker and with some of the more fancied hopes drawn poorly, he should have an economical run and looks good value. You have to think that the Hawkes team are realists, this may have been his Grand Final all along this campaign?
Race 9: Mornington Guineas 3YO 1600m
Mr Quickie will be short, but he will be winning. He looks a safe bet to have one out in the Quaddie, provided that the track is playing evenly and there is no fast lane in close and the back-markers have their chance. He is a real winner, he was brilliant storming home over the top of them at Flemington fresh, this looks easier and he will go through his grades nicely, the mile looks ideal and will get further. A nice horse!
