Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington for Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day on Saturday, February 16th.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.
We’ve previewed every race on the card below!
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 Amphitrite
Best Value Bet: Race 6 Valac
RACE 1
Good, competitive race to kick things off. Mountain Breath was fair in her first Australian start for the Waller stable but was clearly unsuited by the 1200m trip at the Valley. Her last two wins in the UK came over 1600m and 1900m so the sharp rise in distance to the mile today should see her much more competitive, as will the big track at Flemington. Waller gave her a very solid push and I’d expect to see her right in the finish here. Jester Halo looks the value to me at $9.00. She’s had two runs back from a spell and has been luckless, sitting three-wide without cover on both occasions. Positive jockey change today and a good barrier. She’s won both her starts when third up so I can see her turning her form around here. Remember The Name gets things to suit, while Ocean Deep can be competitive at double figure odds.
RACE 2
Another good little race with a few in-form horses coming into this. Former German import Schabau saluted at his first Australian start, which was over this track and distance six weeks ago. He defeated Prince Ziggy on that occasion and that horse has since come out and run 1st and 2nd in his next two starts. Schabau gets a 1.5kg weight swing in his favour on Prince Ziggy today. Hang Man couldn’t have been more impressive in winning first up over 1400m at Caulfield. He probably wasn’t ideally suited to a small field last time out but I think he’s probably looking for the step up in trip now, so the 2000m will suit better. Drawn well and Oliver takes over from the apprentice. No surprise to see him bounce back and win.
RACE 3
Not a race I’m entirely keen on as nothing really stands out, but if Order Of Command was to bounce back to his best here, he’d probably be winning. That’s the query though, after he failed last start as the $2.30 favourite, but he’s had five weeks off and has been back to the trials since then. He’s one of the few horses in the race that brings straight track form and while all of that has been over 1000m-1100m, he’s at least run 2nd in his only attempt at the 1200m. I’ll stick with him with $4.40 on offer. Chauffeur produced a ridiculous win first up for the Weir camp over the 1100m here and on the basis of that, you’d suggest 1200m is no problem, but there’s obviously huge concerns over the legitimacy of that victory. Enigman, Mystyko and Bord de Gain next best.
RACE 4
Barrier 1 certainly isn’t ideal down the straight but I’ll stick with Microphone here, who followed up a debut win with a 2nd placing to I Am Immortal last start. I Am Immortal has since come out and won again so the form stacks up, and Microphone’s debut win was down the straight here, which is a big tick. Stablemate Lanigera has been a big early drifter and may just be a bit of a speedy squib but he also comes out of a relatively strong form race behind Loving Gaby. He’s going to lead here and I’m sure will give a good sight. Talented absolutely bolted in on debut at Geelong and the race has already had a horse come out of it and win. Damian Lane jumps on for the Snowden’s here and at $8.50 probably represents a bit of value. With all that said, it’s a two-year-old race down the straight with 16 runners so anything could win this.
RACE 5
I’d suggest Amphitrite probably gets in well at the weights here as a Group 1 winner resuming against her own age and sex. She’s already proven her liking for this track and distance and although I generally dislike horses (particularly 3YO’s) resuming after running over 2500m, she wasn’t given an overly hard time in the Oaks. She also looked very sharp in a recent gallop and looks to have come back really well. Obviously, there’s the cloud hanging over her head about the Weir situation but I’m prepared to back her class in today’s field. Fundamentalist is Group 1-placed but she is just struggling to get another win on the board. She’s now got just two wins from 13 starts so she’s short enough in the market as a $3.20 chance. I’m quite surprised she’s favourite. The Closer resumes after bolting in at Ballarat last time we saw her. That’s probably weaker form than the likes of Amphitrite but she’s only had three starts and looks pretty talented. Verry Elleegant is another one that resumes. She’s drawn wide and will go back to near last but she could sprint well fresh. She’s undefeated at the trip.
RACE 6
Wide-open race this one. Sin To Win has the ability to run a good race fresh. He’s placed in four of his five starts when first up and four of his five starts at the distance. He’s not hopeless at $34. Heptagon comes off a good win at Caulfield last start and went close over 1400m here at Flemington before that. Drawn a touch awkwardly in barrier 13 but he’s now fourth up and should be at his absolute peak. Guizot ran the fastest final 400m and 200m of the meeting last start in defeat behind Silentz. He’s placed in all three starts over the mile at Flemington so he’s a genuine each way chance again today. Mr Money Bags started favourite but had zero luck last start. If you can forgive him for that performance he rates well in a race like this. Valac is a blowout chance at $41 and I’ll definitely be having something on. He was beaten 8L first up but he’s got a terrific second up record with two wins and two 2nds from four starts. He’s also got a solid record at the distance and he did come off an 8.5L defeat first up last prep to win second up. Antah is probably the horse they all have to beat. He’s absolutely flying with three wins from as many starts this preparation, including an easy 2L success last start. Tackles Flemington for the first time but he’s undefeated at this distance and should be very hard to hold out again today. Antah on top and something small on Valac but I also wouldn’t discourage a trifecta with the above six selections.
RACE 7
This race is absolutely anyone’s guess. Extra Brut resumes for the first time since running 2nd in the Mackinnon Stakes after winning the VRC Derby. He’s one point in case when I refer to horses resuming over 1400m when they last ran over 2500m/2000m runs. I think he’s a very talented horse but he’s also one horse I’m tremendously wary of with regards to the Weir fallout. Ranier draws poorly unfortunately, as I think with a good draw he may have been able to give this a real shake. He’s got a good record at this track and distance and Craig Williams takes over on him today. Even so, with a wide draw he could still be competitive with the right run and $13 appeals. Mickey Blue Eyes won his first two starts last campaign, including a Listed win over the mile at Randwick, so it wouldn’t shock to see him be competitive here. The stable are really coming into some good form. Chapada is a horse I think we need to follow in the staying races this Autumn. He probably should have won the Derby. Whether he’s sharp enough first up at 1400m is the question but Oliver jumps off a recent winner to ride him which is a good sign in itself. Scottish Rogue improved second up last preparation and could do so again. Adana has McDonald booked to ride so you’d suggest he’s the more favoured of the two Waller runners. Age Of Chivalry and Starouz not hopeless.
RACE 8 – BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING STAKES
What a race! I can make a case for seven of these runners and it wouldn’t shock me to see any of the seven win. Osbourne Bulls has looked a Group 1 horse in the making for a while and he pretty well confirmed that with his performance in The Everest, followed by a Group 2 win under 59kg to end his last preparation. He’s 3/3 first up so he’ll be spot on for today – my only little query is the 1000m, which is a distance he’s yet to race at. Even so, I really like the horse and really like the way the stable’s going at the moment so he’s on top for me. In Her Time is a Group 1 winner already and last time we saw her she charged home to finish a narrow 2nd behind Santa Ana Lane in the Darley Classic. Corey Brown from barrier 1 concerns me down the straight but I’m not underestimating the horse’s ability. I think the real value in the race could be Divine Quality. She’s first up again after another 15-week spell (obviously a horse with issues). But last time we saw her, she absolutely blitzed a Group 3 field down the straight, winning by more than 3L over the 1100m here at Flemington. She’s got a terrific fresh record and at $14, she might be the one flying under the radar. Written By is suited for a few reasons. He’s a short-course specialist with two wins over the 1000m trip, he’s had a run under the belt and he meets plenty of opposition that are either first up or haven’t won over 1000m previously. I think he’ll run an honest race but I can see one or two getting the better of him late. Graff is the potential superstar in the field, who might not have shown us just what he’s capable of yet. He won dominantly first up last prep before being brought undone by wet tracks and bad luck. He’s also undefeated first up and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him blow the field away. Lean Mean Machine has been set for this, I think. He’s had two trials leading into today and the stable avoided the race with Nature Strip, likely because if Lean Mean Machine were to win, his stud value would go through the roof as a Group 1-winning son of Zoustar. Sunlight beat the boys in the Coolmore Stud Stakes last time we saw her, which included Lean Mean Machine. She’s first up here and has the benefit of being a short-course winner on a number of occasions. Gets in well at the weights under WFA conditions. There’s obviously been plenty of talk around Jedastar and the 44kg she’s carrying here. I think she’s a blowout chance who is way under the odds at $16. She’s a two-year-old filly taking on some of the best sprinters in the country – genuine, weight-for-age Group 1 horses. I think she’ll get exposed here despite carrying no weight.
Value: Divine Quality $14
RACE 9
Just the one each way bet for me to close out the day and that’s on Widgee Turf. He’s first up today and has placed in 19 of his 24 starts overall. He’s won two from four first up, has placed in four from five at the track and distance, gets in well with 58.5kg after the claim for Tahlia Hope and he’s just always around the money. He’s not drawn ideally but I expect him to be finishing off really well fresh. Theansermyfriend looks to have lost form but he does go particularly well at this track and distance, with three wins and two 2nds from six starts. Flow ran well behind Tom Melbourne in Sydney last start and should be primed third up, but he’s not been done any favours with the barrier draw. Seaburge returns as a gelding, which needed to happen long ago but it could be the decisive factor in him winning another race. Zebulon is a complete blowout chance, first up off a 91-week break.
