Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, December 29th.
We’ve got nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position.
Check out our betting tips for every race on the card below!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 1 Yes Yes Yes
Next Best Bet: Race 3 Sora
Best Value Bet: Race 4 Swizzle Sticks
RACE 1
They somehow put up $3 for Yes Yes Yes here and that was quickly snapped up. We have five horses on debut here but they’d have to be pretty good to beat him. Yes Yes Yes ran 2nd to likely Blue Diamond favourite Brooklyn Hustle on debut and followed that up with a win at Flemington down the straight over 1100m. He’s got the form on the board and has also had the benefit of racing at the Valley prior to today, so with even luck he looks very hard to beat. Maktabba didn’t have much go her way when she started favourite on debut here. Williams retains the ride and she could improve, but barrier 11 obviously hurts. Of those on debut, look for a strong run from Godolphin’s Cathars.
RACE 2
Mahi’s Angel produced a big win first up over 1200m here despite sitting three-wide without cover the entire race. He then went to Flemington over 1400m where he once again had no luck, sitting wide without cover again. He did well to only be beaten 2.5L on that occasion. Now gets up to the mile third up and draws nicely in barrier 4. With even luck he should bounce back and go very close here. Lucabelle also won first up over 1200m here at the Valley but he also had no luck last time out at Sandown when caught wide without. When he stepped up to the mile at this stage of his preparation last campaign, he bolted in by3L. Granted, that was only a maiden, but it tells me he’s capable of improving again today and gets conditions to suit. He looks the value at $8.00. Catching Beams simply ran the field into the ground at Mornington last start and with 51.5kg on her back here you can expect similar tactics. Not the worst each way hope at double figure odds. Chairman’s Choice comes off a very good win first up, while Zou York comes off a win in this grade at Sandown and Oliver sticks with him. He carries the weight but he gets the benefit of Oliver while plenty of other runners carry apprentices.
RACE 3
Sora was very well backed last start at this track and distance when she led all the way to win by 2.25L. The slight query is the fact there appears to be plenty of speed on paper here, but she draws well again and Williams takes the ride so she’ll get her chance whether she leads or not. Happy to stick with her rising in grade. Jay Jay D’Ar won on debut here at the Valley back in February and then had 42 weeks off. She resumed with a terrific effort at Sandown, charging home from back in the field. The jockey booking is what puts me off but I’m certainly not underestimating her talent. Irresistible Girl also won on debut before running 2nd at Sandown last start. She’ll go forward with Meech back in the saddle and if she finds the front she could be a tough one to catch at double figures.
RACE 4
Tricky race. Soul Star comes up favourite but she’s first up at the 1000m drawn barrier 12 with a 3kg apprentice on board. She ran some terrific race last preparation without much luck and they were in harder grade than this. Not doubting her talent but she’ll need to be very good to win from there today. Freeze Over also has a 3kg apprentice on board but Georgina Cartwright has ridden a number of winners at the Valley recently and the filly should be able to find a spot up on speed much the same as she did when winning last start. If she doesn’t have to spend too many tickets early, she will be in the finish once again. One at value could be Swizzle Sticks with Linda Meech in the saddle. She won first up at Mornington and then ran 2nd to Freeze Over here last start, despite sitting wide throughout the race. If she finds the rail to lead she could be tough to run down at big odds. Crack The Code returns for the first time as a three-year-old for the Price/Oliver combination. Keeping her safe.
Value: Swizzle Sticks $14
RACE 5
Crimson Tears has won two from two this preparation at Terang and Werribee and although this is a tougher assignment, she looks up to the rise in grade. Outside of one or two other horses, I actually don’t think there’s a great deal of depth to this race so if she can find a position in midfield or better from barrier 1, she should be hard to hold out. Going to need a gem of a ride from John Allen. Oceanex destroyed her rivals at Geelong last start with a 7L victory. That was on a heavy track over 1700m though, so I have genuine concerns about her replicating that performance back on firmer footing. The Price stable are going well at the minute but I think she’s short enough in the market. Casa De Lago was a surprise winner at big odds first up and although she’s won two from three at the track and has won at the distance before, the rise from 1200m to 1600m is a slight concern, as is the jockey booking.
RACE 6
If Masculino can find the front here he might be hard to run down but with Kentucky Breeze starting from barrier 1 that might not happen. Either way, Masculino has found form after a few runs back to get up to speed and he’s drawn for a soft run once again. He goes on top having proven last preparation that he can string wins together once he gets going. Al Galayel won over track and distance last start and there’s no reason he can’t win again here. He’ll likely be behind Masculino in the run but he just keeps turning up and running well. Beauty Way was backed off the map on his Australian debut and performed accordingly. The booking of 3kg apprentice Liam Riordan slightly concerns me, especially from barrier 8, but the horse is obviously going terrific. Kentucky Breeze an each way chance once again.
RACE 7
Not betting big here at all. These staying races are guessing games. I’ll stick with Chapal who was solid working into 3rd last start and just needs a good run from barrier 9 to be competitive again. Expecting Diamond Grace to improve third up today with that run over 2500m under the belt. The Gatting Ball gets blinkers back on today and when Weir does that it usually works. Mazaz is in good form and there’s no reason he can’t show up once again.
RACE 8
Belwazi draws barrier 1 today and should be able to find a position near the lead. He ran super last start charging home from the back of the field and he’s undefeated third up from a spell. He looks a decent each way bet at $6.50. Miss Norway won first up on protest and should be very hard to beat in a race like this but my concern is her first up record is great and her second up record isn’t. With that said she’s got a great record at the distance, a good draw and a handy claim. Tbilisi stays over the short trip which somewhat surprises me. I thought he was only fair last start and was probably looking for a touch further now.
RACE 9
Only two I’m really interested in here. Our Luca goes on top after three wins from three starts this preparation. He’s won five from six at the distance and is undefeated from two starts at this track and distance so with a good draw and a light weight he should be hard to catch from out the front. Ashlor comes into this third up and he’s got a good record third up and at this track and distance. Barrier 1 looks ideal but my only slight concern is the trip to Perth and back. We saw Runson perform poorly under similar circumstances during the week. Certainly got the ability to win this though.
