Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at the final day of The Masters carnival at Ascot in Perth on Saturday, December 8th.
We’ve got nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail out 6m.
Check out our betting tips for every race on the card below!
ASCOT RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 4 Royal Statue
Best Value Bet: Race 5 Cup Night
RACE 1
Decent little race to kick things off and a few things to consider. Fire And Rain started $6 in the Listed Placid Ark Stakes first up and finished 5th, beaten 4L by the talented Dance Music. Drops back from 1200m to 1000m today, which is a distance she’s won twice at. 3kg apprentice Jade McNaught takes the ride, which doesn’t fill me with confidence in the city (even though she has been riding well in the country). Market Ruler is another that drops back from Listed company. She’s been comfortably beaten in both starts this prep, though the form out of her last start has proved pretty strong (Arcadia Queen and Lady Cosmology both came out of that race). This is much easier but she does drop back from 1400m to 1000m. Her record at the distance is unblemished but dropping back 400m is always a big query. Damian Lane and barrier 1 are both big positives. Classy Lassy bolted in by 6.25L on debut at Bunbury and did so under a grip. She can find the front here and give a good sight for backers with the rail out 6m. Bonnie Palise isn’t a jockey booking that fills me with confidence but she does find the classier horses somewhat out of form, so this could be a nice race for the filly. Lord Greystroke completely turned his form around thanks to a gelding operation and isn’t hopeless.
RACE 2
Competitive race. I’m fairly surprised M’Lady is close enough to favourite here. She failed over 1100m last start and while she should be better suited at 1000m today, there looks good speed in the race and the last thing she wants is pressure up front. Shackleton resumes from a spell here with Jarrad Noske aboard and often with this stable, fresh is best. He was impressive breaking his maiden at his first start for the stable last prep and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t competitive first up today. Princess Zelda looks the value chance in the race to me at $12. She had no luck first up at Bunbury, then won second up before hitting the line strongly at this track and distance last time out. Looks to have returned well this prep and there looks a fair bit of pace in this race, which she should appreciate. Alpha Sky and Danny George are both talented types that resume from spells. Both have solid claims in this. Can never rule out Pike and Peters who are represented by Bon Voyage.
Value: Princess Zelda $13
RACE 3
Looks another race with a good amount of speed in it. The Nicconian has led all the way to win his past two starts over this track and distance and from the good draw he should be able to find the front once again today. He’s still weighted well enough to win this. He’s likely to be joined up there by Molten, who is on debut for the Gangemi stable having been bought from the Snowdens in Sydney. This stable just has a terrific record with these tried Eastern States horses and he’s won two trials leading into today, so no surprise to see him deliver first up. River Dance is a very talented type – last prep he had two starts at Belmont where he ran 2nd to Enticing Star and then beat Stageman. That’s red-hot form for a race like this but the huge query is the fact he resumes with concussion plates on both his front feet and his back feet for the first time today. What I’m hoping is the speed goes on up front and that sets it up for Candlelight Star, who ran the fastest 600m of the race last start when beaten a length by The Nicconian. That was also the third fastest final 600m of the day and his final 200m was the fourth fastest of the day. Damian Lane takes the ride again and I’m just hoping he’s close enough to strike on the turn. Chestern Flyer split The Nicconian and Candlelight Star in that race so must be considered a chance.
RACE 4
This is a good race but surely if Royal Statue is close enough from barrier 3 he’ll be running these down. He clocked the fastest final 200m of the meeting when he looked gone for all money before launching late to claim Moet De Vega over the 1400m last start. That took his record to four wins from six starts and those four wins have been from his last four starts. He’s undefeated at the track, drawn well and could even be shorter than $2.75 in my opinion. Moet De Vega will lead and give him something to catch once again. Watch Me Ney Ney brings some strong form lines to the race through the likes of Arcadia Queen and he didn’t get a lot of room behind Royal Statue and Moet De Vega last start. He’s an each way chance.
RACE 5
Only three that really appeal to me here. The Velvet King should be able to bounce back today. He was drawn very wide in the WA Guineas, where he ran 5th to Arcadia Queen. His first up win over this track and distance prior to that was good and if he reproduces that kind of effort, he’ll take plenty of beating. He should go straight to the front and there looks a distinct lack of speed in the race which should suit him. The clear value in the race is Cup Night at double figure odds. He ran the fastest 600m, 400m and 200m of the race last start in the Placid Ark Stakes. He’s got a devastating finish on him but just doesn’t have the tactical speed to put himself in the race. He’ll motor home again. Shapita ran 2nd in the Placid Ark Stakes and draws well with the light weight again.
RACE 6
Misty Metal led all the way to win the Jungle Mist Classic last start over 1200m, defeating Celebrity Dream by 2.75L. I think Celebrity Dream can turn the tables today with the all-important step up to 1400m, a distance which Misty Metal has never run over. That’s not to say she can’t handle it, but there’s the chance she’ll have to either work to cross for the lead today or sit outside the leader. She might not get it as easy as she did last start. Private Dancer ran 3rd behind those two and he might represent a bit of value here at $15. He’s second up and up to 1400m, which is his pet distance. He’s won two from three at the track and distance and three from five at the distance overall. Pearls And Prawns just had no hope last start when caught three-wide on the speed. Better suited with the good draw today but I just wonder if the form she brings is as strong as the two at the top of the market. Aconite is looking for further but did run the fastest final 800m, 600m, 400m and 200m of the race behind Misty Metal last start, so she’s returned well. Sally’s Realm is another that finished off well and hasn’t had a great deal of luck this prep.
Value: Private Dancer $15
RACE 7
Mississippi Delta could be one of the best bets of the day here. She was dominant last start over the 2100m and provided she gets some luck from barrier 1, she should be winning again. Her stablemate Action drops in grade after finishing down the track in the Railway Stakes last start. The step up in distance should see him come into his own (he was the WA Derby winner) but it’s always a query jumping from 1600m to 2200m. Once again Blue Tracer looks the value in the race. He ran 2nd behind Mississippi Delta last start to give us the exacta and I can’t quite understand how he’s $27 here. Damian Lane is off and Shooter McGruddy replaces him which is a small negative and he’ll be back near last from barrier 9 as he always is. $6.00 the place looks enormous.
RACE 8
CLICK HERE TO VIEW OUR RUNNER-BY-RUNNER PREVIEW OF THE GROUP 1 KINGSTON TOWN CLASSIC!
RACE 9
Tough way to finish off the day with little standing out. Dark Prospect was well-backed last start dropping back to this trip and got the job done. He’s drawn well again in barrier 5 and should be competitive. Queen Bey beat Dark Prospect last time we saw her, but that was over 2200m and she drops back to 1800m today. I hate horses dropping back so sharply in distance but she’s had four weeks off and is in the right stable to pull it off. She’s also got a terrific record at this track with three wins from four starts and did beat Mississippi Delta last start, who we’ve seen win dominantly following that. Like A Butterfly gets blinkers applied for the first time today. I’d like to follow my money on her with Damien Oliver going on but she is getting costly now and it’s been a while between drinks. Final chance here. Middle Earth could be the blowout third up and up sharply in distance. Chances don’t end there.
