Here we are getting ready for the second half of Round 18. The first week of the split round was a bit of an ‘upset’ weekend, but we still managed some healthy profits (results from last week found at bottom of article). There could very well be another couple of upsets this weekend, but at the very least there are a couple of season-defining clashes and a blockbuster that will make for a classic viewing. Be sure to read on and check out part two of our 2014 Round 18 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 18 Preview (Week Two)
Friday night’s game this week is West Coast Eagles Vs. Richmond Tigers. It’s not often a Friday game is played in Subiaco and as such we are expecting a healthy crowd and plenty of support for the Eagles. Both teams have struggled this year, but both are coming off a pre-bye victory. West Coast only defeated an improved Brisbane, while the Tigers gave us a shock victory over Port Adelaide. Not sure that the Tigers will be able to gel like that again and let’s face it, Port Adelaide just haven’t been right of late, so we can’t read into that victory as much as some people would. The Eagles have won 13 of the last 16 against the Tigers at Patersons, with their last loss there in five years coming when the Tigers flogged them last year. Don’t think that will be repeated again anytime soon. The Eagles get Kennedy back and in front of a home crowd, will be firing. The Eagles dominate the Tigers in contested possession and tackles and while both teams have struggled going inside 50 this year, the Eagles should be able to shut down the Tigers run and win a tough game.
On Saturday afternoon we head to the Gabba for Brisbane Lions Vs. Gold Coast Suns. This is a very interesting game. Usually the Queensland clash is inconsequential, but the Suns’ finals hopes are riding on this one. Collingwood fans everywhere will be hoping the Lions overcome the Suns and we actually think that is a chance. The Suns defeated the Lions by 53 points earlier in the season but that was when they were firing and of course, they had Gary Ablett. The fact of the matter is that the Suns have never won without Gary Ablett. We saw what happened to the Suns without him against the Bulldogs – they crumbled. Now, they have had a couple of extra weeks to prepare for this one and they would have done a lot of work to get their structures right without their general. The Suns do seem to trump Brisbane in most of the key stats, but those stats were recorded with Ablett around. Not saying the Suns don’t have depth, they do still have one of the best young midfields, but with Brisbane welcoming back Tom Rockliff, it’s going to be hard for them. We have seen particular this season how much of the game is played above the shoulders, if Brisbane get a leg in front of the Suns they just might find it hard to regain their composure as they lack belief without Gary. Should be a great game.
Saturday night’s Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Sydney Swans is the game everyone is talking about. It’s at the MCG and is being touted as one of the best games of the season and who are we to argue. The Swans continue to crush the 2014 season and will likely welcome back Kurt Tippet and Dan Hannebery to an already formidable side. Hawthorn will be glad to have Josh Gibson and Bradley Hill back, which makes their team as close to full strength as it has been all year. Such a tough game to pick as you just know the Hawks are champions and could win any game they wanted to. But on paper the Swans win this. They should be able to win the ball in the middle and the Hawks will struggle with the best forward line in the comp. The Swans won by 19 when these two met in Round 18 (at ANZ Stadium, not the MCG). Could be a similar margin this time around and can’t see it blowing out for either side.
Sunday’s lone game is Collingwood Magpies Vs. Adelaide Crows. This one is at the MCG and is the most important game Collingwood have played this year. Lose this and it’s going to be very hard to make the top 8. For Adelaide? Win this and there is a glimmer of a hope to make the finals. It’s that simple. Collingwood lost to Adelaide earlier this year, but they weren’t too far away. That game was also at Adelaide Oval. Collingwood have won 7 of the last 9 against the Crows at the MCG and that could be the difference. The Magpies have been struggling to score lately, averaging just under 80 points a game over the last five. It’s likely they have done a lot of work on this over the break. Many people will point to the Magpies woeful game against Essendon, but that was anomaly, and you would think a proud side like the Magpies would be firing up like crazy for this one. They get Jamie Elliot and Ben Reid back, although lose Dane Swan, Luke Ball and Nick Maxwell. Swan is a big out sure, but trying to keep him in while injured may have been hindering the Magpies’ structure anyway. Scott Thompson has been included for Adelaide despite being subbed off with a hamstring niggle last week. The Crows expect him to play. This will be a cracking game. Leaning towards Collingwood in a tight one, but will wait it out over the weekend before firing.
Round 18 Best Betting Tips (Week Two)
West Coast Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes **
Brisbane at the line (+12.5) - $1.92 *
Sydney Swans Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.45 at Ladbrokes **
+ Sydney Winning Margin 1-24 - $3.3 at Ladbrokes *
Collingwood Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.40 at Ladbrokes *
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 18 Tipping Advice (Week Two)
The first half of Round 18 was tough with Carlton defeating North and Sants defeating Freo (What!?). Luckily managed to get the other three correct. Hopefully can get the four remaining games right. Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition at the local pub or in the work place.
West Coast (Richmond)
Brisbane (Gold Coast)
Sydney (Hawks)
Collingwood (Adelaide)
Score last round (18 Week One): 3
Total score: 101
Round 18 (Week One) Betting Results
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
