There were a couple of upsets last week but we still managed a few solid wins. Round 18 is one of those split rounds we all love so much! Okay, maybe we don’t love them and why would we? It pretty much just means less football. Luckily there are still a couple of interesting games to keep us entertained, although there are also a couple of very one-sided affairs on offer too. Regardless, be sure to read on and check out our 2014 AFL Round 18 preview, betting tips and tipping advice! This is ‘week one’ of Round 18, with a separate second article set to appear on Before You Bet before the next set of Round 18 games begin next weekend.
2014 AFL Round 18 Preview (Week One)
The first of five games for Round 18 sees Carlton Blues Vs. Nth Melbourne Kangaroos take place at Etihad stadium on Friday night. The last time these two teams met it was also on a Friday night and the Blues overcame the Roos by just one point in a ripping game. With the Blues still struggling and the Roos in form, we don’t think this game will be quite as close as that. There were moments of Carlton’s game against Sydney last week that showed promise, but ultimately they were easily defeated. Thinking Mick Malthouse’s Blues will be looking to tighten up against the Roos and if North Melbourne continue kicking more points than goals as they have all season, this game should by decided in less than six goals. Not sure if the Blues can win though, so maybe ignoring the 26 point line and going with North Melbourne under 39.5.
The first game on Saturday is St Kilda Vs. Fremantle. This one is at Etihad as well and unfortunately for any Saints fans heading to the game, it aint going to be pretty. There is a reason this game has a 56 point line. The Saints are coming off a 59-point loss to North Melbourne last week, while the Dockers are coming off a 76-point win against the Giants. This is one of those lines that is hard to touch. If we had to lean one way, then would take Fremantle to cover that line, but with all the outpouring of love and respect for the retiring Lenny Hayes this week, the fact the game is in Melbourne and the chance that Ross Lyon and his Dockers may not over-exert themselves this late in the year, it’s a hard line to bet on.
One of two Saturday night games is GWS Giants Vs. Geelong Cats. It’s being played up at Spotless Stadium which will suit the Giants, especially after coming off a tough trip to Fremantle to get thrashed by the Dockers. The Cats defeated the Giants by 59 points the last time the two met and this could be a similar result here. The Cats are sitting in the top four and need to keep the momentum going if they want to stay there. The Cats poor record on the road this year will be talking point leading into this game, but ultimately I don’t think the wavering Giants will have what it takes to stress the Cats out at all.
The first of two Sunday games is Port Adelaide Power Vs. Melbourne Demons. Like the last two games we talked about, this is another one-sided affair. This is the kind of game the Power need to regain some confidence after a few poor weeks. In fact, that’s underselling it, the former premiership favourites have lost four of their last five. Melbourne’s confidence is also at an all-time low and they certainly won’t be expecting to regain any of it here. They have lost the last two games by more than ten goals. Just back in Round 11, Paul Roos and his Demons kept it within 20 points, but we don’t see them being able to do the same here.
The final game of Round 18 is probably the most interesting of the round – Western Bulldogs Vs. Essendon Bombers. Both teams are coming off massive wins, with the Bulldogs overcoming the Suns, while the Bombers crushed the Magpies. The Bulldogs regain Ryan Griffen and Adam Cooney this week, thought the young pups seemed in their element without these two in the team, so it might not necessarily be as big of a plus as some people would think. These two teams met in Round 7, with Essendon winning by 8 points. The Bombers know how important this game is for their chances of making the top 8, so we can’t see them giving up the four points to the fighting Bulldogs. Thinking this will be a competitive game, with the Bombers winning by five goals or less.
Round 18 Best Betting Tips (Week One)
(May not be available in your state. Always gamble responsibly.)
North Melbourne Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 at Labrokes **
Essendon Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.10 at Ladbrokes ***
+Essendon Winning Margin 1-24 - $3.10 at Ladbrokes *
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 18 Tipping Advice (Week One)
Last week was another round of 7 correct tips! Seems all we get is sevens lately. This article wont feature all the tips for the entire round, just this weekend’s games, so be sure to check back here next week! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition at the local pub or in the workplace!
North Melbourne (Carlton)
Fremantle (Saints)
Geelong (GWS)
Port Adelaide (Melbourne)
Essendon (Bulldogs)
Score last round: 7
Total score: 98
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
