Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, July 14th.
We have nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail out 11m, so you probably don’t want to be too far off the speed today.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Be sure to also listen to Episode 42 of the Before You Bet Podcast!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 #2 Mount Kilcoy
Best Value: Race 8 #2 Snitzepeg
RACE 1
Keen to be with the two debutants here. (7) Ronan’s Rock jumped out well at Flemington, winning by 2L under a pretty firm grip for Craig Williams. Barrier 1 should see him settle right up on the speed here and Williams is in phenomenal form with 13 winners from his past 21 rides! He’s already been met with good support in early betting. (6) Brutal also jumped out well at Flemington on the same day as Ronan’s Rock. He actually ran a better time than Ronan’s Rock and was visually more impressive too. When he got a slap down the shoulder, he really accelerated quickly and burst away from the rest of the field. He’ll get a gun run from barrier 4 and I’ll definitely be saivng on him. I couldn’t really split the horses but the Lindsay Park team have a better record in Melbourne than the Hawkes team and Williams obviously gets the nod over Dwayne Dunn, so Ronan’s Rock goes on top.
RACE 2
Nice little race with a handful of winning chances. A number of these come out of the same race at Caulfield two weeks ago over 1100m, which was won by (2) Zarpoya. I’m sticking with Craig Williams again here. I noted last start that it was interesting he took the ride on (11) Soul Star first up in that race won by Zarpoya, and the filly went to the line under a stranglehold, beaten only 1.75L on the line. He keeps the ride on her here and draws nicely in barrier 4. We’re not getting double figure odds today but the $6.50 on offer at least allows us to back her each way. (3) Miss Norway drew very wide last start and produced a huge run to be beaten just 0.5L. Her final 600m sectionals in that race were clearly the best in the race and she draws a little bit better today. Still some concern with the 3kg apprentice taking the ride but I think the filly is flying and is a good price at $7.50. (4) Josephine Sea was another big run in that race. She ran 2nd, beaten a nose, and she also drew wide on that occasion. Much better draw today and looks to get the run of the race from barrier 3. She can bounce back. (7) Magnesium Rose comes through a different form line after running 3rd to Layel and Grey Shadow at Sandown last start. She won third up last preparation and draws nicely in barrier 5. Tough race!
RACE 3
Weir looks to have a mortgage on this race with (14) Mantastic and (5) Another Coldie. Mantastic has had two runs in Australia and finished 2nd on both occasions. His run in defeat last start was huge after settling a long way back from the wide barrier. That’s likely to be the case once again here but the step up in distance is sure to help him. He’s been well found and it wouldn’t surprise me if he drifted on the day from his current quote. It’s notable that Damian Lane takes the ride on the stablemate Another Coldie, who has drawn significantly better in barrier 3. He’s had three runs back from a spell now and improved out of sight last start to run 2nd despite sitting three-wide without cover the entire race. He’s going to get a lovely run here and he’s won six races and run four placings from 11 starts on Good ground. The $4.40 isn’t exactly an each way price anymore but he looks a nailed on place chance at the very least. Williams takes the ride on (7) Bling Dynasty second up so he’s worth keeping safe. (11) Rib Eye isn’t hopeless stepping back up in trip. (10) Guizot is running well but hasn’t won from 10 starts on Good ground and goes from D Oliver to B Allen. I think Mantastic is the best horse but Another Coldie might be the best suited in this race. Having a good crack each way.
RACE 4
Tricky race. If (16) Demolition gets a run he’s clearly the one to beat here but he needs a further two scratchings to gain a starting place and that’s unlikely to happen with a Good 4 track and fine weather. With that in mind, (7) The Avenger goes on top. The Waller stable sends him down from Sydney for this and he really does find a suitable race. He’s fourth up from a spell and hasn’t been far away in his past two starts after winning at Canterbury first up. He’s won over this track and distance previously and draws well in barrier 3. Likely to need a touch of luck given his racing pattern but he finds a lot of non-winners as his rivals here. (3) Mr Gustavo produced a very good run first up behind Ashlor. He clocked the fastest final 600m of the race after settling near last and the step up to 1400m is sure to help him here. Going to need a very good ride from Steph Thornton but he looks to have returned well and $9.50 appeals. (13) My Paisann is a capable type at this level and is second up from a seven-week break here. His run last start wasn’t too bad and he shouldn’t be dismissed. (6) Mr Individual was given no hope last start. Can bounce back here from the good draw but hasn’t won in a long time. (14) Ballet Master is racing well but has never placed from four attempts at the track.
Value: (3) Mr Gustavo $9.50 Sportsbet
RACE 5
(3) Rillito looks the obvious horse to beat here and should be winning once again after a dominant display last start, which backed up her huge run at Moonee Valley first up. This is still only her third run back from 385 days off the track, so there’s still scope for improvement. She draws wide here but Williams will ride her just as he did last start over this track and distance, where she won by 2L in a canter. There’s no doubt this is a tougher assignment than that race, but she looks to be a pretty talented mare.
RACE 6
Looks a race in two here between (1) Masculino and (2) Mount Kilcoy. Masculino has won his past two starts impressively. Both have been over this distance and he’s started from wide barriers on both ccasions. Zac Spain will be looking to execute similar tactics to what he did over this same track and distance last start, where he won by 3L. The difference between that race and this race, however, is that Masculino was the stand out horse on class last start, whereas he meets a smart one in Mount Kilcoy here and has to give him 5kg in weight. Mount Kilcoy has only had the four career starts but hasn’t finished worse than 2nd in any of those. He’s had things go against him in his past couple of starts and Weir turns to Ben Allen to get the job done today. I would have much rather seen Damian Lane given the ride because Ben Allen isn’t in good form, but he shouldn’t have a difficult task here from barrier 7. The horse backs up quickly after his run last week and steps up in trip to the 2000m. I think he’s the one to beat at the weights.
RACE 7
Tricky race with a number of different ages, form lines and abilities clashing here. Siding with (1) Voodoo Lad here who failed in two Group 1 races to open his campaign. Both were on wet tracks and he returns to Melbourne now after a 35-day break. Back onto Good ground, back to a distance he is undefeated at from four attempts and back to Caulfield where he’s won three from four starts. The obvious question is whether he’s the same horse this prep, but if he shows anything like his true form then he’ll probably win this. (6) Jukebox has been well backed to win already and is the $3.10 favourite. He’s resuming from another fairly lengthy spell, this time 252 days. He’s won his only public trial in good fashion and Williams is booked to ride. (5) Inn Keeper faces his acid test today having won seven of his first nine starts. Expect him to lead from barrier 1 with Meech in the saddle and you wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to add to his winning record. (4) Ashlor is flying.
RACE 8
Wide open race but there’s a couple that interest me here. (2) Snitzepeg has had three runs back from a spell and might finally be ready to win again. He was beaten 3L last start but he ran the second fastest final 400m of the race and was one of only two horses to break 12 seconds for the final 200m. He drew barrier 13 on that occasion but draws barrier 1 here and looks worth backing at $8. (3) Al Passem beat Snitzepeg by 3L last start when winning over this track and distance. He’s still only third up from a long spell here so could still have some improvement left in him. Drawn softly in barrier 2 and looks a decent chance of winning once again at $7. (13) Streets Of Avalon ran the fastest final sectionals behind Al Passem last start and was good at the Valley before that. He’s a bit of a non-winner with just one win from 17 starts, though. (1) Summer Sham drifted enormously in betting prior to last start, but was still only beaten 0.6L. Straight up to 1400m from 1100m today but should be fitter. Maybe one more start and then a senior rider on board? (15) Sostenido is the blowout at $67. Backing both Snitzepeg and Al Passem.
Also backing: (3) Al Passem $7.00 Sportsbet
RACE 9
Really nice race to finish off with here. (10) Barthelona is absolutely flying with three wins from his past four starts, all at this distance. He gets in with just 51kg today after the claim for Lachlan King and from the good draw he should go straight to the front. He’ll be tough to run down. I think the $6 we’re getting for (1) Widgee Turf is very appealing. He’s a serious horse and I thought he did a terrific job to win with a big weight over 1200m last start – a distance I thought was short of his best. He’s back up to 1400m now and I think he might be even better at this trip so I’ll happily have something on him here. All eyes will be on (3) Theanswermyfriend who makes his stable debut for Darren Weir. We only have to look at Nature Strip’s improvement since moving to Weir to realise how quickly horses can turn it around under his care. Theanswermyfriend has always shown plenty but obviously all of his best runs were under Robert Smerdon. Hence, he’s a tough horse to assess. Watch the market closely. (13) Call Me Handsome was very good first up behind Ashlor and will only be better suited up in trip, while (12) Malaise is another knocking on the door.
