Once again Before You Bet is back with our rolling Brownlow Medal Tracker for the 2018 season. We’ll be providing comments for every game of the season, along with our vote predictions to help with your projections for the 2018 AFL season.
Our Brownlow predictions are one of the most popular aspects of the site with punters able to scoop huge profits using the information found in these pages. You’ll be able to stay up to date with our current Top 20 2018 Brownlow Medal leaderboard, while there will be links to every single round-by-round voting posted there.
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can form a 'range' for each player (ie a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great incentives for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips, and of course, check out our 2018 Brownlow Round 16 Vote Predictions below!
2018 Brownlow Medal Predicted Votes – Round 16
Sydney 9.5.59 def by Geelong 8.23.71
Despite kicking less goals than their opponents, the inaccurate Cats secured a strong away win against the Swans. It was the midfield brigade that did the damage with Mitch Duncan (32 disposals), Tim Kelly (21 disposals, 5 tackles, 2 goals), Joel Selwood (28 disposals, 9 tackles) and Sam Menegola (25 disposals) among the best. Luke Parker (23 disposals, 7 tackles, 2 goals) and Josh Kennedy (26 disposals, 7 tackles) tried hard but were no match for the Cats.
Mitch Duncan – 3
Joel Selwood – 2
Tim Kelly – 1
Richmond 15.13.103 def Adelaide 8.8.56
The Tiger army rolled on with a big win in the Grand Final rematch against the Crows. Dusty Martin was back to near his best with 30 disposals and 2 goals, while Jayden Short (25 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) was influential with his run off half back. Kane Lambert (33 disposals), Dion Prestia (28 disposals, 1 goal), Trent Cotchin (27 disposals) and Shaun Grigg (28 disposals) were all very good in the middle. Matt Crouch was the leading ball winner on the ground with 38 touches, while Rory Sloane played his best game since returning from injury with 31 possessions and 7 tackles. Tom Doedee was also very good at half back with 28 disposals and 8 marks.
Dustin Martin – 3
Kane Lambert – 2
Matt Crouch – 0.5
Tom Doedee – 0.5
Brisbane 18.12.120 def Carlton 7.13.55
Carlton seem destined for the wooden spoon after being thumped by the Lions. Dayne Beams did as he pleased on his way to 40 disposals, 9 marks and a goal in a best-on-ground performance. Tom Cutler had 28 touches, 14 marks and 2 goals, while Eric Hipwood finished the job with 6 goals from 15 possessions and 7 marks.
Dayne Beams – 3
Tom Cutler – 2
Eric Hipwood - 1
Betting Note: We now have Dayne Beams into the Top 10 on our 2018 Brownlow Medal leaderboard, and just 4 votes behind the leaders after some great recent form. Sure it will be tough with Brisbane winning so few games, but he’s a clear stand out in their side at the moment, and is likely to pick up votes in losing teams. He’s $101 on Ladbrokes, and as short as $34 at some other books. At that price, he’s worth a speculative nibble.
Port Adelaide 12.14.86 def St.Kilda 7.8.50
A solid win for the Power with plenty of even contributors making it tough to pick out the vote getters. Tom Rockliff is a chance for his 30 possessions and 8 marks, while Chad Wingard (32 disposals) and Steven Motlop (28 disposals) were also very good. Charlie Dixon finished off their work with 4 goals from 16 touches. David Armitage was very good for the visitors with 30 disposals and 3 goals, while Jack Steele picked up 26 disposals while restricting superstar Ollie Wines to just 18.
Tom Rockliff – 2
Chad Wingard – 2
David Armitage – 1
Steven Motlop - 1
Western Bulldogs 9.5.59 def by Hawthorn 19.8.122
After a tight first half, the Hawks ran rampant in the second half to record a big win. Luke Breust was a clear best-on-ground with 24 disposals, 8 marks, 7 tackles and 6 goals in a dominant display. Jarryd Roughead (18 disposals, 4 goals) and Jack Gunston (21 disposals, 10 marks, 4 goals) were back to their best, with Isaac Smith (30 disposals, 2 goals) and Daniel Howe (25 disposals, 1 goal) also influential. Josh Dunkley (23 disposals, 10 tackles) did a good job restricting Tom Mitchell, while Jason Johannisen had 32 touches, although after 25 of those came in the first half, he went missing after half time.
Luke Breust – 3
Jarryd Roughead – 1.5
Jack Gunston – 1.5
Melbourne 13.24.102 def Fremantle 7.6.48
An inaccurate Melbourne got a comfortable win against Freo with Clayton Oliver running amuck with 35 disposals, 7 tackles and 2 goals. Angus Brayshaw (31 disposals) continues his good form, while Christian Petracca (29 disposals) and Jack Viney (28 disposals, 7 tackles) also won plenty of the ball. In the absence of Aaron Sandilands, Max Gawn was able to dominate the ruck contests with 42 hitouts to go with 20 disposals and a goal.
Clayton Oliver – 3
Max Gawn – 2
Angus Brayshaw - 1
North Melbourne 14.11.95 def Gold Coast 8.10.58
North got the job done against the lowly Suns in a game that didn’t reach any great heights. Scott Thompson (31 disposals, 9 marks) and Robbie Tarrant (26 disposals, 10 marks) were impenetrable across half-back, while Ben Cunnington (30 disposals) and Ben Jacobs (26 disposals, 1 goal) were influential in the midfield. Both ruckmen hit the stats sheet with Todd Goldstein picking up 36 hitouts, 20 touches and 1 goal, but that was nullified by Jarrod Witts’ efforts of 36 hitouts, 19 disposals and a goal.
Scott Thompson – 2.5
Robbie Tarrant – 2.5
Ben Cunnington - 1
Essendon 9.8.62 def by Collingwood 12.6.78
The Pies were strong late to break free from a tough Bombers opposition at the G. Scott Pendlebury was outstanding with 34 disposals and 9 tackles, while Steele Sidebottom (27 disposals, 2 goals) and Taylor Adams (27 disposals, 1 goal) also won plenty of the ball. Brodie Grundy was again the best big man on the ground with 24 disposals, 34 hitouts and a goal, while Jordan de Goey was a livewire up forward with 20 disposals and 3 goals. Devon Smith (31 disposals, 8 marks, 13 tackles) was a fantasy coaches dream, while Zach Merrett (33 disposals) and Dyson Heppell (33 disposals) won plenty of the ball.
Scott Pendlebury - 3
Steele Sidebottom – 1
Brodie Grundy – 1
Jordan de Goey – 1
West Coast 13.8.86 def GWS 10.15.75
A cracking finish to the round saw the Eagles hold off the Giants to get an important victory. Andrew Gaff should pick up the three votes for his 41 disposals and 2 goals, while Jack Redden (32 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal), Elliot Yeo (32 disposals) and Luke Shuey (32 disposals) were also damaging in the midfield. Tim Taranto (28 disposals, 7 tackles), Lachie Whitfield (28 disposals, 1 goal) and Stephen Coniglio (30 disposals, 1 goal) were good contributors for the Giants.
Andrew Gaff - 3
Elliot Yeo – 1.5
Jack Redden – 1.5
