Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, May 19th.
We have a nine-race card on a Soft 5 track with the rail in the 3m position. There is a drop of rain predicted but not anything that will cause a downgrade and given Flemington is a track with good drainage, we’re likely to end up in the Good range.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 #1 Iconoclasm
Best Value: Race 3 #15 Zilbiyr
RACE 1
Three I’m interested in to start the day off here. Going with Weir’s horse (3) Bronski Beat who comes off a dominant win on wet ground at Bendigo last start. Comes to town now at his fourth career start and stays at the 1400m. Should be hard to beat with even luck from barrier 7. Would rather take $3.80 for him than $3.70 for (1) Vassilator, who won at 100/1 last start. The value could be (9) Mirette, who ran 2nd to Bronski Beat last start at Bendigo, which was his first start for the campaign. Back onto a drier surface and with that run under his belt, he should improve today at $7.50. (4) Winning Partner is a horse of plenty of interest coming across from Adelaide for Tony McEvoy. Wasn’t entirely suited with the way the race was run first up but is capable of going close here.
TIP: (3) Bronski Beat / (9) Mirette EW
RACE 2
Three main horses that interest me here. Once again, Weir has a strong hand. (4) Grey Shadow got the run of the race last start, which was the difference in the end, but she did well to win a race of that quality at just her third career start. From the wide barrier today, she probably finds the best part of the straight and although she’s short enough at $3.80, she should be hard to beat. Her stablemate (3) Twitchy Frank draws barrier 1 which might be a bit tricky. This is her third run back from a short let-up and she should camp right on the leaders’ heels from the inside draw, if not lead herself. At $15, she’s more than capable of causing an upset. (5) Island Daze won her first two starts, including a win over Grey Shadow, but was disappointing last start. If you forgive that poor run, her previous form suggests she can be right in this and she’s drawn well in barrier 5. At $11 she’s not without a chance. (12) Layel comes off a dominant win in much easier grade first up but the stable is flying.
TIP: (4) Grey Shadow / (3) Twitchy Frank EW
RACE 3
Nice little race. I was with (14) Éclair Calling last start when he ran 2nd over 1400m at Caulfield and the run (or the ride) was a bit perplexing. He was caught wide without cover throughout the race, then came wider on the turn, ducked in behind horses and then closed off hard to run 2nd. He’s now third up from a spell, up to the mile and Callow takes over from the 3kg apprentice. Draws better in barrier 2 and he’s very much knocking on the door for a win. With that said, this is a very competitive race and $2.80 is short enough. (8) Another Bullseye is absolutely flying, with two wins and a 2nd to French Emotion from three starts this prep. There’s some big differences today though. This prep, the horse has started from barriers 4, 5 and 5 again. He’s also been ridden by Daniel Moor all prep, who was probably the most in-form jockey in Melbourne before heading off to Singapore. Today, she draws barrier 16 and has 3kg apprentice Liam Riordan on board. There’s two at great value here if the track is still Soft. (10) I Boogi is third up from a spell today and has run 2nd on both occasions when it’s been third up previously. Drawn perfectly in barrier 5, gets the senior jock on board and has two wins and two placings from six starts on Soft ground. At $12 it’s worth having something on. The blowout is (15) Zilbiyr at $41. He comes into this second up and has the blinkers going back on today. He won second up last prep on a wet track over 1500m – in fact he’s never missed a place second up before. The key is the wet ground.
TIP: (14) Éclair Calling / (10) I Boogi EW / (15) Zilbiyr EW
RACE 4
Not a race I want to get too involved in. (3) Carraig Aonair is the only one that somewhat interests me. Third up today and straight up to 1800m after an improved run last start. He might still need one more run and Fred Kersley isn’t in good form at all, but he’s drawn well and doesn’t necessarily face a crack field. At $7/$2.55 I could entertain a small each way bet.
TIP: (3) Carraig Aonair EW
RACE 5
Tough race. (1) Boom Time was enormous first up over 1800m when only narrowly beaten. Carries 1kg less today with the 3kg apprentice taking over from the 2kg apprentice, but I always have big concerns when a stayer produces such a good first up run. We often see them come out and run very flat second up, and at $2.80 I have to risk him today, even though he’s clearly the class horse in the race. (6) Tarquin was the horse that beat him first up and despite the wide barrier draw today, he can win again. But he’s another that isn’t necessarily the most reliable type. The two runners that interest me most are two Waller runners. I think (9) Hursley is a good each way bet at $7 and that’s the way I’d be playing this. He’s had eight starts at the track for six placings, draws softly in barrier 2 and comes all the way down to 54kg after carrying 58kg and 59.5kg in its last two starts. Another Waller runner, (7) My Nordic Hero, is just about ready to do something after three runs back this preparation. Has had the run over 2000m and now comes to Melbourne. Well enough drawn and a decent enough jockey booking, so he might be ready to show something at double figure odds. Not a race I’ll be betting big into.
TIP: (9) Hursley / (7) My Nordic Hero EW
RACE 6
Three main horses I’m interested in here. If (1) Rich Charm had have drawn an outside barrier, he’d be close to a moral here. He might still be. Barrier 2 is certainly a tough barrier for him, given he’s likely to be cluttered up on the inside (if they migrate to inside rail), or in the worst part of the track if they come to the outside rail. Still, his win last start was outstanding and he’s won two from three at the track and distance, with his only defeat coming in the G1 Newmarket Handicap. (5) First Among Equals will win one of these races one day and this could be it. His run two starts ago behind Sprightly Lass was very good, where he produced the fastest closing sectional of the race. He then went to Adelaide last start where he was beaten again by Sprightly Lass. Back to Melbourne now and I just don’t want to let him go around at $8 without something on. (12) Divine Quality is second up today and has won over this track and distance before. Drawn wide which may be the best part of the track and no surprise to see her go very close.
TIP: (1) Rich Charm / (5) First Among Equals EW
RACE 7
This race is a nightmare. Only one horse I’m interested in and that’s (3) Chequered Flag for Weir at $7. He’s won his past two starts and the thing that catches my attention is that the stable chose to skip the jumps races during the Warrnambool carnival with him in order to keep him on the flat for this race. Hopefully the track still has some juice in it by the time this race comes around as he’s got a much better winning record on wet ground than he does on dry. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t in the finish either way.
TIP: (3) Chequered Flag EW
RACE 8
Tough race with numerous chances. The one that stands out to me is (5) Moss ‘N’ Dale at $5. He just seems to tick a lot of boxes. This horse comes out of a decent form race at Warrnambool first up and his record second up from a spell is three starts for three wins. He’s got five wins and two 2nds from eight starts at the distance, with the only two concerns being the jockey booking and the fact he’s had two runs at Flemington without placing. Still, drawn well in barrier 6 and it won’t matter if it’s wet or dry. (13) Top Me Up could be ready to win at decent odds.
TIP: (5) Moss ‘N’ Dale
RACE 9
They’ll have to be very good to beat (1) Iconoclasm who is absolutely flying. He was caught three-wide without cover for the whole race last start and still put them away easily to make it four wins from six career starts. Drawn wide again today but Brown retains the ride and if he gets it any easier than he did last start, he’ll likely win again. (2) Lord Sundowner ran 2nd to Iconoclasm last start and gets the senior jockey taking over from the apprentice today which is a big plus. Probably still has a bit to find to turn the tables on the favourite.
TIP: (1) Iconoclasm
