Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Day 1 of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday, April 7th.
We have four Group 1 races headlining the card – the Sires’, Australian Derby, TJ Smith Stakes and the Doncaster Mile. The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail in the True position.
Tune into Episode 29 of the Before You Bet Podcast below to hear Tim's preview of the four Group 1's on Day 1 of The Championships!
ROYAL RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 1 Lean Mean Machine EW ($6/$1.95)
Best Value: Race 2 Sambro / Dissolution (both $9)
RACE 1
Two-year-olds to kick us off here. Not really any standouts and I think (8) Enbihaar is short enough in the market here at $2.70. This horse was scratched from the Golden Slipper with lameness a couple weeks ago, meaning she hasn’t run for six weeks, but she has trialled in between. There’s no doubts about her quality. She ran home well from the back of the field in the Blue Diamond to run 2nd to Written By, and that form has obviously stood up well in Sydney. The speed map has her sitting last from barrier 9, though she showed good speed in her first two starts. Unless there’s a notified tactics change expect to see her at the back. I’d rather take $6/$1.95 about (4) Lean Mean Machine, who backed up two good trials with a sound debut win at Warwick Farm. He was wide without cover in that race and still won in good style, with a big gap back to the third horse. Pretty confident he’ll go close here and on a day with several dartboard races, this is one of the better bets of the day. One unit win/three units each way and we make a profit if he places.
TIP: (4) Lean Mean Machine EW
RACE 2
Going to take on the top two who carry all the weight here. I’m more wary of (1) Holy Snow than I am of (2) Villermont, because I think the form behind Unforgotten is very solid and the run of Holy Snow last start was terrific. Mick Price has his stable flying so Holy Snow will once again be competitive, but I’ve opted to go with two others at better odds. (6) Sambro and (7) Dissolution both come out of the same race last start, where Dissolution beat Sambro by 1.3L. That was Dissolution’s second win from as many starts this prep for new trainer Brad Widdup, but Sambro gets a couple of things in his favour today. He gets a 1.5kg weight swing in his favour, and comes into this second up (Dissolution had an extra run under the belt when they met last start). Brenton Avdulla replaces Lee Magorrian, and from barrier 2 he should box seat if he jumps. I think $9 for both of them is a good price, and I’ll be backing both.
TIP: (6) Sambro EW / (7) Dissolution EW
RACE 3
This is a lottery. (6) She’s So High absolutely bolted in first up at Flemington, coasting clear by over 3L hard held. The query with that form is firstly, she didn’t beat much, and secondly, she was in the right part of the track. That was the day the Flemington rail was on fire and Oliver gave her a perfect ride. Still, Mick Price’s stable is flying and every horse he’s brought to Sydney this carnival has been competitive. I think the smokey in the race is a Godolphin horse, but not the one that’s most favoured. (11) Manicure was unlucky not to be undefeated in her first preparation. She was poleaxed on debut but bounced back to win her next two. She resumed in a strong race behind I Am Excited and ran 4th, despite sitting wide the entire race. I Am Excited is a leading chance for the Arrowfield Sprint next weekend. She draws poorly in barrier 17 here but the tempo looks very good on paper and if they can run on, she could run a big race at $19. (10) Charlayne is a smart filly that won her first two races and returns from a two-month break here. McEvoy rode her to her last win but jumps off to ride (1) Catchy here. Catchy drops heavily in grade after racing in three Group 1 races to start her campaign. Carries the weight here but has an obvious class edge and would be no surprise to see her bounce back here. (8) Demerara has won two from two this prep in Melbourne and returns to Sydney now but Craig Williams’ record in Sydney is enough to turn me off.
TIP: (6) She’s So High / (11) Manicure EW
RACE 4
Looks only a few chances on paper for the Country Championships Final here. (1) Suncraze only just fell in to qualify last start at Scone. After hitting a flat spot and looking no chance at the 200m he got into gear late to get up on the line. He draws perfectly for this and his record at the track is terrific. My biggest query for him is Corey Brown riding, because he’s going to be riding at 49kg for D’Argento in the Doncaster. This horse really needs getting stuck into so will Brown be at his strongest given he’s riding so light? For that reason I’ve leant to (3) Don’t Give A Damn who bounced back from his shocker two starts ago to win the Muswellbrook wildcard qualifier last start. Kerrin McEvoy went there for one ride and he won fairly easily despite being pestered throughout the run. He doesn’t have to lead here but he’ll be right up on the speed and McEvoy keeping the ride tips me towards him. (5) Victorem has won four of his five career starts but the country jockey retains the ride and this is his first time at 1400m. (2) Careless Choice not hopless.
TIP: (3) Don’t Give A Damn
RACE 5
This is another lottery but I’m following the Manion Cup form, as that’s proven to be a trustworthy form reference for this race. (8) Alward goes on top but I don’t think he should necessarily be a clear-cut favourite. He went back to last when stepping up to 2400m last start and ran home strongly to be beaten 0.3L by (2) Master Of Arts last start. He gets a small weight swing in his favour today and will be much better off with that run under his belt. But the big thing in his favour today is the Good track. His record on soft ground is nowhere near as good as it is on firm ground, and Master Of Arts’ record on soft ground is much better than it is on firm ground (that’s not to say he isn’t still a live chance on good ground). I do think the $9 for Master Of Arts is wrong, given he’s likely to get just as good a run today as he did when winning last start. I’m interested in the two Kiwis at big odds – (4) Zacada and (6) Sir Charles Road. Both come through the Group 1 Auckland Cup (3200m) and weren’t far away. Typically the staying form from New Zealand holds up here and this isn’t a top-line race. (11) Peribsen is flying but may struggle with the firm ground today, while (14) Wheal Leisure looks over the odds stepping up to a suitable distance today. Backing Alward ($4.20) and Master Of Arts ($9), something small on Zacada and Sir Charles Road.
TIP: (8) Alward / (2) Master Of Arts EW
RACE 6
First of the Group 1’s here. (13) Oohood goes on top here so hopefully she can finally break her maiden tag. She’s placed in all five career starts so far, including the Blue Diamond and the Golden Slipper last start. Draws well again, Purton is back to ride, and she’ll be hard to hold out. (2) Long Leaf settled last in the Slipper and had to come the widest in the straight. There was plenty of merit in his run to finish as close as he did. From barrier 2 I suspect he will settle right up on the speed today if he jumps well so keep an eye out for a tactics change. Will be having something on him at $9. The run of (14) Seabrook in the Slipper was arguably just as good, if not better than Long Leaf’s. She settled wide and still finished off well. I thought she was strong through the line and she’s still only third up into this. Barrier 1 concerns me a bit but she’s right in this. (7) Tchaikovsky comes off a maiden win at Gosford but he ran 3rd in the Todman before that, and the Todman has historically been a good form race for this. This is a grand final stable and he follows a similar path to Invader who won this race for the same stable last year. (11) Adana is a horse I’ve been following since he first trialled but McEvoy jumps off today to ride Long Leaf.
TIP: (13) Oohood / (2) Long Leaf EW
RACE 7
Another absolute lottery here with the group 1 Australian Derby. I’m siding with a couple of Kiwis here from a stable who know how to win this race. New Zealanders have won four of the last five editions of this race. (2) Vin De Dance goes on top after a terrific run in the Rosehill Guineas when finishing 2nd to D’Argento (relegated to 4th on protest). Steps back up to 2400m now which is the distance he won at two starts ago in the group 1 New Zealand Derby. Draws well and $8.50 seems a big price. His stablemate (10) Weather With You is one at big odds that must be included. He’s $21 despite being beaten 0.3L by Levendi in the Tulloch Stakes last start. He’s fourth up now and will stay all day. Last prep he won the Geelong Classic over 2200m fourth up from a spell. He also draws barrier 1, which was the winner’s starting barrier in this race in 2014, 2015 and 2016. (15) Mongolian Marshal ran 4th in that same race behind Levendi, but post-race Murray Baker said the horse desperately needed the run. His win in New Zealand prior to coming to Australia was dominant, so with that run under his belt it wouldn’t shock to see him go close. Barrier 20 hurts though. (4) Mongolianconqueror ran 2nd to Vin De Dance in the Derby two starts ago before a fair run last start. Back up to 2400m on firm ground suits. (1) Ace High has been running as if this race was his to win all preparation. With the good draw and good ground he’ll be competitive. Chances don’t end there!
TIP: (2) Vin De Dance / (10) Weather With You EW
RACE 8
Looks a three-horse race, the Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes. (1) Redzel needs no introduction. He’s won seven of his past eight starts and was beaten a nose by the Newmarket winner when he lost. He’s undefeated at the track and distance, can lead or take a seat, and is without doubt the one to beat again. A big factor in having him on top is having Kerrin McEvoy as his rider. (8) In Her Time is the logical danger after a terrific first up win in The Galaxy. She’s also undefeated at this track and distance from three attempts. I’ve said all along she would have gone close in The Everest if she had have run, and with the good draw here she’s sure to go close. Again, Corey Brown against Kerrin McEvoy – I’ll take McEvoy, especially when Brown is riding as light as he is. (3) Brave Smash is the relative unknown. He’s gone to a new level this prep, with a dominant win in the Futurity Stakes backed up by a narrow defeat in the Newmarket. I think he’s a better 1400m horse but he proved to me last start that he’s a sprinting star that can measure up here. Redzel had his measure in The Everest, but he looks a different horse this prep. This is going to be run super hard, that could suit him as the horse proven at 1400m.
TIP: (1) Redzel
RACE 9
The Group 1 Doncaster Handicap and this is almost impossible to sort out. I don’t really want to be on inside barriers here, which means $3.70 for (9) Kementari is certainly short enough. He looks a potential star this horse, having battered his own age-group all prep before running an unlucky 3rd to Winx last start. He’s going to need a lot of luck from barrier 2. I’m looking a bit wide here. The jockey booking is a huge negative for me but I’ve got to have something on (11) Lanciato, who has hardly put a foot wrong all prep. The wide draw is a good thing for him, and he gets in with a light weight. If she can stay trouble-free, he can run a big race at $19. Weir brings his big guns here in the form of (1) Humidor and (2) Tosen Stardom. Humidor is arguably the second best WFA horse in the country behind Winx and winning with 58kg isn’t out of the question for him, third up with the blinkers back on. Tosen Stardom went horrible last start but he can do that from time to time. He shouldn’t be $29 because if he brought his A-game (which I suspect he will), he’d be a big player in this. (3) Happy Clapper is a 7YO but is flying this prep and got close to Winx last start. The inside barrier draw is a negative though. (7) Invincible Gem, (8) Tom Melbourne and (10) Comin’ Through are all chances. The X-factor horse is (16) D’Argento, who follows the same path as Kermadec did when he won this race a couple of years ago. Drops back from the 2000m of the Rosehill Guineas but carries a light weight and will eat up the mile. Wide barrier not the worst thing for him – Corey Brown at 49kg isn’t ideal for me, but I’d rather take $7.50 for him than $3.70 for Kementari.Even (15) Cool Chap at $61 is a chance. No idea how to play this race but likely to have something on Lanciato, D’Argento, Humidor and Tosen Stardom.
TIP: (16) D’Argento / (11) Lanciato EW
RACE 10
It pains me to tip a Waterhouse horse but I’m with (3) Wedgie in the last, each way at $7 (though we might get better on the day). There just looks no speed in this race, and she gets a 4kg weight swing on (1) LuvaLuva from her narrow defeat last start. She’ll be rock-hard fit and gets things her own way out the front, so should be able to give a good sight. LuvaLuva missed the Vinery with a slight setback. The stable has said she’s missed no work but even so, the 7kg she gives every other runner is a big impost. (4) Harmattan won her first two starts before running 2nd to a nice horse in Think Bleue last start. She comes up to Sydney now after having all three starts in Melbourne, and she maps to get a lovely run from barrier 4. (11) Pretty To Sea was luckless in that same race so should be considered at longer odds, while (13) Jungle Fish is the blowout.
TIP: (3) Wedgie EW
QUADDIE
1, 2, 4, 10, 15
1, 3, 8
1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 15, 16
1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 13
$100 = 13.88%
