Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Good Friday at Ascot on Friday, March 30th.
All eyes will be on racing in the West with Ascot’s metropolitan meeting just one of two TAB race meetings across the whole country on Good Friday. The track is a Good 4 with the rail out 7m.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below.
ASCOT RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 #2 Magical Charm
Best Value: Race 1 Thisaway EW
RACE 1
Big field and an open race to start off with. Interested in backing (5) Thisaway who is having his third start today. His first two starts have both been eye-catching. On both occasions he has drawn wide barriers (11 and 14 respectively) and flashed home from the back of the field to be beaten 2L and 0.75L. From barrier 7 today I’m hoping he can settle closer to midfield rather than be snagged all the way back. If that’s the case, I think he’ll be right there in the finish at $6.50/$2.35. (4) Texas Moon drops back from a Class 1 to a maiden here and gets the blinkers applied for the first time. Drawn well and the jockey on top is flying. (1) Clever Dick resumed with a great run first up after a good trial leading in. He led and was only run down late. With the rail out 7m, there will be no harm in leading, and with his good record at the track and distance, he will likely be in front for a long way. (11) Tips And Scandals is listed as having bar plates on for the first time here which is obviously a huge negative. Interestingly, the form guide says she wore them first up as well. Either way, they definitely go on today and that’s reason enough to stay away.
TIP: (5) Thisaway EW
RACE 2
Four main chances to mention here. (1) Tellem We’re Comin looks the obvious choice after a sound first up win over 1400m at this track. That was a Class 1 so he steps up in grade to a Class 3 here but he’s gone close in this grade previously. Pike sticks with him and the step up to 1600m looks to suit. He’s hard to beat but at $1.75 he’s certainly short enough. There is a couple at odds that can surprise. (4) Rose’s Shadow broke through in maiden grade at Bunbury last start at 30/1, despite being held up until the 200m mark. If you look back to his run two starts ago, it was a similar story – he was held up the majority of the straight and just couldn’t pick up once he was clear late. From barrier 9, he should get clear running, and if he’s able to wind up (I don’t think he can sit and sprint) he could run a big race here at $34. $7.50 for a place isn’t the worst bet. (3) Summit Trail drops back to 1600m here after failing over 2000m at his past couple of starts. He has a good record at this track and distance and should roll forward from the wide barrier. With the little freshen up since his last run, I expect him to show sharp improvement at $10. (5) Thunder Boom has been luckless in both starts this prep and gets blinkers reapplied today, so has to be included from the good draw.
TIP: (1) Tellem We’re Comin / (3) Summit Trail EW
RACE 3
Competitive affair once again. (7) Gifted Warrior goes on top after a nice recent trial to get him ready for his first up assignment today. He won well on debut at Northam last prep, before finishing 4th when heavily backed at his second start. The winner of that race was the talented Sophia’s Secret. That was back in October and he looks to have returned in good order judging by the trial. There’s a slight query over the form from that trial but he won it with a bit in hand. Barrier 10 is certainly a sticky draw and it’s an open race so I wouldn’t want much shorter than the $3.40 on offer at the moment. The value could be (8) Demeritorious at $23. This horse won well on debut at Geraldton before finishing midfield as favourite at his second start. He pulled up with heat stress and was sent to the paddock straight away. He didn’t show much in his trial leading into this but I wouldn’t leave him out. 12) Melros Beach is another at good odds to include. She broke her maiden at Pinjarra two starts ago before failing in a 3YO Hcp last start. This is much easier. (1) Ramruey was good first up and can be competitive. (4) Vital Asset was good first up and luckless last start; the draw hurts though. Thought the trial of (6) Guns Of Navarone was only fair, while (5) Watto’s Fury has done its best racing on soft ground so the firm track here may not suit.
TIP: (7) Gifted Warrior / (8) Demeritorious EW
RACE 4
Not a race I’m overly keen on. (7) Broker goes on top but mainly by default. Has won two of its past three races with a 4th placing at Ascot over 1600m wedged in between. Back in distance to the 1400m is no concern for me. Should be able to camp in the box seat or one-out-one-back and just has to run down (1) New Time. New Time won very well first up and clearly has the best record at the track. He’s won 7 of his 25 starts at this track and distance and will go straight to the lead once again. My query is his second up record, which reads much worse than his first up record, and also the fact that this will be apprentice Emma Stent’s first ride back in over 2 years. (6) Take It Like A Man was well in the market first up in that same race that New Time won, which is surprising given his terrible first up record. He might still need one more run but he’s big odds at $17 today. (8) Freecell is on the five-day back-up but was beaten 5.5L last start so I’m inclined to look past him.
TIP: (7) Broker / (6) Take It Like A Man EW
RACE 5
Great race but hard to split the top few in the market, in particular the two favourites. (1) Hoboken is in great form. He won three starts back over 1200m at this track, then ran 2nd by a nose to Blackline, before a luckless run last time out when held up the entire straight. (2) Denim Pack won first up last prep and has trialled very stylishly leading into this. He didn’t show any speed in the trial but he sliced through the field to finish 3rd. My query is whether he’s able to run a strong 1100m first up with just one trial. So far his two wins have come over 1000m. (10) Keeper’s Tale came from back in the field first up to run home strongly into 2nd. The extra trip will suit him and his record at the track so far is outstanding. He’ll get back again from barrier 8 but looks a great hope in this at $6. (5) Undisclosed is first up without a trial here but he’s got the talent to win a race like this. This race really will come down to whoever produces the best ride. We’ve got apprentices on the top two in the market (who are both susceptible to producing the odd slaughter). I’m siding with Hoboken purely due to the 1100m query I have about Denim Pack, but I won’t be surprised at all if Denim Pack does win this first up. Also backing Keeper’s Tale with the senior rider aboard.
TIP: (1) Hoboken / (10) Keeper’s Tale EW
RACE 6
Looks a two-horse race between (4) Driftstar and (3) Chix Pic. Both trialled impressively leading into their debuts and both saluted comfortably over the 1000m here. While both were on different days, it’s worth noting Driftstar ran a quicker time than Chix Pic (58.14 compared to 58.58) so the Pike/Miller horse deserves to be a short-priced favourite. He should bounce out and lead, while Chix Pic will likely want to be as close as possible from barrier 5.
TIP: (4) Driftstar
RACE 7
If (2) Assetro settles midfield, this will be all over. The stable has said they will try and ride her closer to the speed from the middle barrier, rather than being right at the back of the field and trying to reel them in from near impossible positions. She should be undefeated but for a luckless run two starts ago. Her win last start was enormous given the ground she had to make up, and so if she’s a couple of pairs closer, she should be winning again. Happy with the price at $2.15 despite the quality of the field. Adam Durrant has long said this could be the best horse he’s ever trained. (4) Princess Pierro is a nice each way bet at $11. She’s been runner-up at all three starts so far, and she won’t be far away again here. I certainly don’t think there should be such a discrepancy between her and (3) Agent Pippa. Agent Pippa died on her run first up, so did that trip to Melbourne take a bit more out of her than what we might think? It’s not easy for a 2YO to travel to Melbourne, pull up lame, come back to Perth and race for another preparation. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with the form of (1) Nocelle.
TIP: (2) Assetro
RACE 8
Looks a much more open race than it may seem. (3) American Joy goes on top but she’ll need to be good from where she’s likely to end up from barrier 12, which is last. She’s third up today and what I like about her is the fact she’s won over a similar distance in the past and has had a fairly natural progression up to this distance, whereas a few others in this race are stepping up sharply from 1400m or such. (9) Send My Love will go forward and will have a significant head start on American Joy. She led last start in the 1000 Guineas, when beaten 1.75L by the likes of Like A Butterfly, Friar Fox and Private Dancer. I’ve given chances to (6) Alezan and (7) lucky Escape at good odds. (1) Watch Me Ney Ney just steps up far too sharply in trip for mine, from 1400m to 2100m, while I’m not keen on the jockey booking for (5) Perceptive Miss.
TIP: (3) American Joy
RACE 9
It’s a big field but there’s plenty of dead wood here and I’m actually pretty amazed (2) Magical Charm is $2.10 here. Suspect she starts deep into the red. She broke her maiden over 2000m at Bunbury two starts ago and was beaten 0.3L over 2200m last start. Stays at 2200m today and she has a very good foundation, whereas her biggest rivals are making a sharp step up in trip. I really think her only danger is (7) Infinite Beauty who has placed in its past three starts but steps up from the mile to 2200m here. Very keen Magical Charm at the $2.10.
TIP: (2) Magical Charm
QUADDIE
3, 4
1, 2, 3, 4
3, 5, 6, 7, 9
2
$100 = 250%
