Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the best betting races at Warwick Farm, Sandown Hillside and Pinjarra on Wednesday, March 28th.
We’ve taken a look at all three cards and selected the races we’re keenest to bet into, and you can find our tips and comments on each of those below.
Best Bet: Sandown Race 8 #10 Leicester
Best Value: Warwick Farm Race 7 #4 Roman Son
WARWICK FARM RACING TIPS
RACE 1
Keen on the favourite (1) Adana here, who ran an eye-catching race on debut over 1200m at this track. He’s since been back to the trials, and they don’t trial much better than what he did. He went to the line under a stranglehold for Kerrin McEvoy, who retains the ride on him here. He looks like he might get over a bit more ground than this and the drop back to 1100m is the only query, but he looks pretty smart and the race-trial-race tactic is one Waller uses regularly with great success. Deserves the be favourite at $2. The obvious danger looks to be his stablemate (3) Altair, with Bowman booked for the ride. It’s interesting that Bowman rides this horse, as he’s usually given first pick on the Waller horses, but McEvoy was on Adana on debut and at the trials so that’s possibly why he’s kept that ride.
TIP: (1) Adana
RACE 2
This is a very intriguing little race. Form for a midweek maiden at Warwick Farm doesn’t get much better than a last-start 0.4L 2nd behind the Golden Slipper winner. That’s exactly what (7) Pure Elation did. I noted before that race that I thought she was a filly with a good deal of talent and I hadn’t dropped off her yet, and she ran a terrific race behind Estijaab to reaffirm that. With that in mind, it’s some wonder how she’s $2.80 here, but that could be because of the wide barrier, which could see her ridden cold. Regardless, she’s the one to beat. The only danger looks to be the debutant (6) Invictus Salute who has trialled up sharply for this and gets Kerrin McEvoy on board from a good gate. I’d be having a good crack at Pure Elation and saving Invictus Salute.
TIP: (7) Pure Elation
RACE 4
(3) Mazaz was a touch disappointing last start but I can forgive him for that given he carried 60kg and was dropping back from 2400m to 2100m. He drops to 57kg here and gets back up to 2400m on what should be firm ground. I’ve got reservations over the favourite (2) Tamarack who has to carry 59.5kg here so he looks short enough at $2.40. Happy with $3.80 for Mazaz.
TIP: (3) Mazaz
RACE 7
Interested in one at a bit of value here and that’s (4) Roman Son. This horse looked a very progressive stayer a couple of preparations ago but went off the boil last prep. He then changed stables to Richard Freedman and his first up run for the new trainer was outstanding, beaten 0.8L by (9) Absolute. He draws well in barrier 4 today so may not be so far back in the run as he was first up, and the rise in distance is sure to suit him. Kerrin McEvoy sticks with him and at $9 he looks a good each way bet. Hopefully he doesn’t race flat after such a big first up run.
TIP: (4) Roman Son EW
SANDOWN RACING TIPS
RACE 5
Absolutely terrified of the betting move for the Laming runner (10) Raspberry Rose here, who is $6 into $3 already. This filly bolted in by 4.25L on debut at Pakenham back in October before failing as the odds-on favourite at her second start. She returns from a spell here and the weight of money suggests she’s ready to go. When the money is on for this stable it is very rarely wrong so I’ll be saving on her. Two at a bit of value in the race are (7) Belle Xaar and (8) Hampton Classic. Both come off 1000m maiden wins. Belle Xaar is from the Weir stable and won at Bendigo, and when Weir brings them to town off wins like that they generally measure up. Hampton Classic won at Terang and didn’t have much go right for her in the home straight. Oliver booked to ride is a positive lead. Belle Xaar is $9.50 while Hampton Classic is $8.50. Will be playing equal stakes on all three runners (i.e. 1 unit on each) so that if Raspberry Rose wins we get money back.
TIP: (7) Belle Xaar / (8) Hampton Classic
RACE 6
Wide open race here and will only be having a very small play in the race on one runner at big odds. (8) Street Sheikh is $23 and comes off a maiden win at Terang. This stable and jockey combo have a 25% win strike rate together this season and a 51% place strike rate, with a ROI of 45%. This horse has had two months since its first up win but has trialled nicely twice since then and shouldn’t be underestimated in an open race.
TIP: (8) Street Sheikh EW
RACE 8
Could be the best bet of the entire day here (10) Leicester. This horse could be a Group horse and I’ve locked in the $1.90 because it will start much shorter than that (well done to those who snapped up $2.50 when markets opened!). He sat three-wide without cover last start over 1600m at this track and still cruised home to win by 2.25L, and the horse he beat (Think Bleue) then came out and won last Friday night at Moonee Valley in Group company. Draws well in barrier 4 and should be winning.
TIP: (10) Leicester
PINJARRA RACING TIPS
RACE 2
Not a good race at all and I won’t be betting big but I’ve got (12) Our Bonnie Girl on top after a solid first up run at Ascot over 1200m. She will relish the step up to 1500m here and although she draws horribly in barrier 16, she doesn’t have much to beat here. Hopefully Aaron Mitchell gives her a good ride and she should be hitting the line very hard late.
TIP: (12) Our Bonnie Girl
RACE 3
Sticking with (5) Mississippi Delta who was our best bet of the day when she bolted in at Ascot last start. She overcame a severe check on the turn on that occasion, but she still put them away in the space of two strides. She does step up from a Class 1 to a Class 5 here, and she did beat a bunch of Z-graders last start, so this won’t be as easy, but she’s on the up and can win again.
TIP: (5) Mississippi Delta
RACE 7
I think (1) Just A Fluke can go very close to winning again here. He’s won two from four this preparation with two minor placings as well. He’s got a good record at this track and distance with two wins and two placings from four starts and carries a similar weight to his past two starts thanks to Tayla Stone’s claim. Should be bowling along out the front and that record down the straight 1000m is an advantage here.
TIP: (1) Just A Fluke
