Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Mornington Cup Day at Mornington on Saturday, March 24th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. There is 10-20mm of rain predicted so I suspect the track will end up in the Soft range at least, should that rain come. Mornington typically favours those horses close to the speed.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, make sure you listen to Episode 27 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where Tim previews the action from Rosehill and Mornington. You can also view our Rosehill Racing Tips for Golden Slipper Day here!
MORNINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 #7 Ashlee Marie
Best Value: Race 6 #5 Duke Of Brunswick
RACE 1
Very, very keen to bet here and have already bet early. (4) Matty goes on top after a good first up effort behind Sprightly Lass at Moonee Valley, who then went up to Sydney and won before having the race taken off her on protest. That’s great form for this race and he’ll get a great run from the barrier just behind the leaders. Looks very hard to hold out. If there is one horse to beat him I think it’s (5) Typhoon Jolie. I’ve already snapped up $9 and I expect her to start shorter than the $7 still around. This is the only natural leader in the race and she’s been very sharp in her jumpouts at Caulfield leading into this. She will lead at a good clip and at Mornington, they might struggle to run her down.
TIP: (4) Matty / (5) Typhoon Jolie EW
RACE 2
Wasn’t keen on this race until I got to (7) Ashlee Marie who looks very well placed. She will go straight to the lead and from there, this lot might find it difficult to run her down. The forecast rain is a huge bonus to her – she’s won one from 24 on good ground but she’s won four from eight on soft ground. (1) Angeology might be the best chance of running her down but if she has a break at the top of the lane then she won’t be caught in my opinion. I think the $3.20 is a very fair price.
TIP: (7) Ashlee Marie
RACE 3
This is a low race. Going to take a little throw at the stumps here and have something on (7) Peaceful Solution at $8.50. This horse was 80/1 on debut when finishing 4th behind (1) Lucky Louie and (6) Gheedaa, but he was only beaten 1.7L. He actually ran some of the fastest sectionals in the race. He ran the fastest 600-400m split and the fastest final 200m of the race. He went back from the wide gate on that occasion, but from an inside draw here on his home deck, I’m hoping he might be a bit closer to the speed. (1) Lucky Louie draws the rail and can win again, while (6) Gheedaa is becoming very costly.
TIP: (7) Peaceful Solution EW
RACE 4
Competitive little race and I’m going off the speed map here because I think from barrier 10, (5) Freehearted goes back or risks being caught wide. On the other hand, (8) So Far Sokool should go forward and get a great run just behind the leaders from barrier 4. If that’s the case, he might be hard to run down. I’ll take the $4.20 in the expectancy that the market may react in favour of that. Can’t believe I’m writing this but I’m actually backing (2) Jalan Jalan at the price today. She went in the sea a long time ago but she’s two from two on soft ground and it seems as if that’s what she’ll get today. She will get a good run from the barrier and at her best, she’d be competitive here. I’ll give her one last go at $14. (9) She’s Positive was good first up and should go well here, while (11) Niamh Chinn Oir has returned in great form and a win wouldn’t shock.
TIP: (8) So Far Sokool / (2) Jalan Jalan EW
RACE 5
Nice price about (1) Rich Luck here, who returns from a spell with two trials under the belt. His first up record is very good, with two wins and a second (0.1L) from three starts. Barrier 1 should mean he’s not too far away in the run and if he returned at his best, he’d win this. Ethan Brown a great booking to take him down to 59kg. (7) Brahmos looks hard to beat. He won at Pakenham last start and the form out of that has been franked last night with Maximus winning at the Valley. He’s drawn well in barrier 5 and looks the one they’ll all have to beat. (10) Tigger as beaten less than 2L by Brahmos last start despite sitting wide the entire race. That was his first start back after a very long spell, so with a better run from barrier 3 he could turn the tables. The stable is absolutely flying. (4) My Paisann is a horse I’ve got a bit of time for but she might find it hard to win here given how far she’s likely to get back.
TIP: (1) Rich Luck EW
RACE 6
Tough race. I would be very keen on (3) I’m Wesley if the track wasn’t wet but given I’m expecting it to be at least Soft, I have to take him on. He’s had eight starts on rain-affected ground and although he’s placed plenty of times, he’s never won. DK Weir has (2) Stellar Collision flying and from barrier 1 he should just sit behind the leaders on the rail. He’s capable but he has his fair share of weight to carry, and you can tie in the likes of (8) Lucky Liberty and (11) Leodoro to some of his performances, and at the weights they actually get in better. I think we’re getting a big price about (5) Duke Of Brunswick at $10. He’s first up here and as he showed last prep, he’s capable of pulling out a big run fresh. They key is the soft ground for him today – he’s got a terrific record on soft ground and his run first up last prep behind Ability is good form. The stable is flying, I’m just hoping he’s not too far away from barrier 3. (4) Prussian Vixen is no good third up from a spell but has a great record at the track and distance.
TIP: (5) Duke Of Brunswick EW
RACE 7
He’s very short now at $2.35 but it’s hard to tip against the favourite (11) Kings Will Dream here. If this was from any other stable, I’d hate the step up from 1800m to 2400m, but Weir is about the only trainer I’m comfortable making an exception for. We haven’t really got to the bottom of this horse yet – he’s undefeated in Australia and hasn’t looked like losing, so from the good draw once again today he will prove hard to beat again. Weir isn’t shorthanded here given he’s got the next two in the market involved too in the form of last-start winners (4) Gallic Chieftain and (6) Bondeiger. Outside of those, (9) Oncidium Ruler has a great third up record and looks a chance at $16, (12) Harrison should appreciate the step up from 1800m to 2400m, and (7) Self Sense should relish the soft ground.
TIP: (11) Kings Will Dream
RACE 8
Three that interest me here. (6) Silverhawk will likely lead here and he comes out of a strong form race behind Leicester and Think Bleue. Leicester looks a potential Group horse and Think Bleue won impressively last night at Moonee Valley. If he gets an easy lead, he could be hard to run down at $6.50. (13) Sheezdashing has had no luck in either start this preparation. She just found herself in an awful spot last start in a race that was dominated by the leader, so if she can get a bit of luck she could be right in the finish. (4) Peruggia has won two on the bounce and maps perfectly for this race so could be a big player at $8.50.
TIP: (6) Silverhawk / (13) Sheezdashing
RACE 9
(6) Our Peaky Blinders looks one of the best bets of the day here. He was a dominant winner at Pakenham two starts ago and he was absolutely truckloaded at Ballarat last start. He had a good run but ended up trying for an inside run when that section of the track was off. He only went down by a nose to Call Me Handsome and they put a 5L gap on 3rd. Draws well in barrier 5 here, should be up on speed and has finished top two in all three starts on soft ground. Hard to beat at $2.40.
TIP: (6) Our Peaky Blinders
QUADDIE
2, 3, 5, 8, 11
6, 7, 9, 11, 12
2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 13
6
$100 = 66.66%
