Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Royal Randwick on Saturday, February 17th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position, headlined by a triple header of Group 2’s.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 22 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Flemington and Randwick Tim is keenest to bet into! Alternatively, you can find our Flemington Racing Tips here.
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 #8 The Pinnacle
Best Value: Race 9 #14 No Interest EW
RACE 1
(1) Mate Story won a much better edition of the Highway Handicap last start and should be able to go on with the job here. Some sight queries surrounding the step up to 1800m and the transition from soft to good ground, but he should just prove too classy for this lot. There could be some value to be found in (8) Not Bossy who is lightly raced and comes off a maiden win at the Sapphire Coast. Generally speaking, that form is rubbish, but she was dynamic in winning and the step up in distance should suit her, whereas it’s questionable for the favourite. She’ll sit back and come wide and try her hand at running over the top of them. At $14 she’s worth having something on.
TIP: (1) Mate Story / (8) Not Bossy EW
RACE 2
Three horses I’m interested in here. (1) Irish Bet backed up a good trial to win on debut back in December when saluting over 1000m at this track. He was put away for a short spell and returns here with one trial under the belt. John O’Shea has had a good opinion of this horse since day one and he’s just a touch over the odds for mine at $8.50. (9) Tchaikovsky is on debut for the Snowden stable and follows their regular procedure of having two trials before its debut. The key for me is the improvement from the first to the second trial, and we often see them then bounce off those trials to win their first race start. I also like the fact it’s trialled over 1045m leading into an 1100m race on debut. Also a good chance at $7.50. The favourite (2) Legend Of Condor also won on debut over 1000m at this track and clocked a much quicker time than Irish Bet. Resumes for the first time since that debut win in October and has won a trial leading into this race. Gerald Ryan is a master of these two-year-olds – he deserves favouritism and no surprise to see him well backed to this point. Playing equal stakes on all three – if Irish Bet or Tchaikovsky win we get a good profit, if the favourite wins we get our money back.
TIP: (1) Irish Bet / (9) Tchaikovsky
RACE 3
I hate these 2000m races with numerous Waller runners engaged but it looks a nice race for (1) Emperor’s Way to continue his winning ways. He’s won two on the bounce now and won over 1800m at this track two starts ago when he also drew barrier 1. The 2000m is no concern for me and he looks a good winning chance at $3.60. (4) Zourkhan gets his chance in this field but typically does his best racing fresh so he’s running out of time the deeper he gets into his preparation. (6) Vaucluse Bay drops in weight and draws significantly better today so expect to see him closer in the run. He hasn’t had much go right this preparation and is nearing another win. (5) More Energy isn’t hopeless.
TIP: (1) Emperor’s Way
RACE 4
Looks a very nice race for (2) Deploy who returns for the first time since running in The Everest. He really went to another level last preparation, notching up three wins, including a track record at Rosehill. His trial leading into today wasn’t overly inspiring but he wasn’t wearing the blinkers. Importantly, he’s wearing blinkers for his resumption today. He has a good first up record, a great record at this track and distance, draws well and should be very hard to beat despite carrying a big weight. Likely starts shorter than $2.70. (8) Oxford Poet looks the value in the race at $21. Ran well first up from a spell before a flat run last start, but he always tends to do that second up. Importantly, his third up record reads five starts for three wins. Down in weight today and can be competitive in this field. (6) Kaepernick gets the blinkers back on second up from a spell today, while (1) Clearly Innocent is the class runner of the field and should be thereabouts despite carrying top weight.
TIP: (2) Deploy / (8) Oxford Poet EW
RACE 5
Deep race with a bit of juice but (8) The Pinnacle looks one of the best bets of the day. She’s already been backed into $2.80 from an opening quote of $5.50 after a terrific first up run over 1350m behind O’Rachael. The form has stacked up through the likes of Moss Trip, and the step up to 1600m second up from a spell here is ideal for this mare. She drops from 59kg to 55kg and provided Christian Reith doesn’t slaughter her, she should be very hard to beat. Stablemate (9) Prometheus is flying and comes out of a good form race behind Show A Star. Barrier 1 isn’t ideal for him. (5) Nat King Cu can be competitive at good odds. Third up from a spell here and has been racing well in easier grade. The win over Aquatic first up has been franked on multiple occasions by that horse. (4) Malaise was given no hope in Melbourne last start and returns to Sydney now. He can bounce back, while (2) Pelethronius isn’t without a chance.
TIP: (8) The Pinnacle
RACE 6
Tricky little Apollo Stakes with Winx out. (6) Comin’ Through returns as a gelding this preparation and may be ready to go to the next level. He resumed with a strong win first up last preparation over this track and distance. His record at this track and distance is actually very good, with three starts for two wins and a second. There looks to be a fair bit of tempo in the race, so he’ll get it run to suit and should be hitting the line hard. Jason Collett jumps off (9) Addictive Nature to ride him too. Addictive Nature started favourite in the Expressway Stakes but could only manage 3rd. He’s probably much better suited second up at 1400m back on a good track here, so it won’t be a surprise to see him bounce back to the winner’s stall (though it will hurt because I backed him first up and am jumping off today). The value could be (4) Stampede who is first up here and has a good fresh record and a good record at this distance. Probably better suited over further but he can be effective fresh here at $9. (2) Prized Icon ran a huge race first up but stays at 1400m and draws barrier 1 which I don’t like. (3) Endless Drama was good in that same race but was heavily backed, indicating they had him tuned up to win. His second up record isn’t as good as his first up record so that may have been his chance. (8) Global Glamour is well and truly cooked in my opinion, at least for this preparation.
TIP: (6) Comin’ Through / (4) Stampede EW
RACE 7
Wide open race this and one I’m not very confident with. I’ll be playing around three horses. (5) Raiment is clearly very talented but has also had issues along the way. This time last year she was dominating races similar to this on wet ground, but failed in Brisbane during the Winter and has now been off the track 252 days. She goes well fresh and has a great record at the distance, so with 53.5kg her talent might just get her across the line, but she’s just had the one recent trial which was only fair. I’ll be saving on her. (10) Faraway Town was backed off the map and won impressively first up over this track and distance. This is a huge step up in grade but she looked to return a different horse this preparation and might be able to go on with it here at $7. (3) Zestful does some of her best racing at this track and distance with five starts for two wins and two placings, including a win at big odds two starts ago. She’s had a little freshen coming into this and although she draws poorly, she does look well suited returning to the Randwick 1200m. I like the booking of J Collett too. $21 is a big price.
TIP: (10) Faraway Town / (3) Zestful EW
RACE 8
All things being equal, (3) Alizee will be incredibly hard to beat here. She showed us last preparation that she is a seriously talented filly and she looks to have even gone to a new level with the recent trial behind Redzel. The concern for me is that she will be back in the field and first up at 1200m with one trial is some concern. She should be able to sprint well fresh because of those factors, but she;s undoubtedly going to be better over 1400m and 1600m. I think if she’s got clear running at the top of the straight, she’ll win, but if she’s held up trying to find room then (13) Shumookh will be the one to catch. She will make her own luck out in front and comes into this on the back of a good performance behind a very smart horse in D’Argento. From barrier 5 they will jump straight to the front and try and run Alizee of her feet. I think she’s a decent each way bet at $9.50 if you’re opposing the favourite. (2) Melody Belle comes across from New Zealand after bolting in by 3.5L last start, but I’m not sure she beat much. Alizee very likely to win but at the odds, Shumookh EW could be the way to go.
TIP: Shumookh EW
RACE 9
Two I like here. The trial of (8) Suncraze was very stylish, and although all of his form from last preparation was in Highway races, I think he’s capable of winning a race like this. There’s the possibility that he’s better suited over 1400m but I think he’ll give a good account of himself over 1200m today. Draws well, has a good fresh record, a good record at Randwick, should be competitive at $4.40. I have no idea how they went up $61 for (14) No Interest. She’s done little in two runs back from a spell but she never does at that stage of her preparation. If you look at her third up record (four starts, two wins and a placing) it suggests she really improves significantly with two runs under the belt. She’s third up today, draws well and is lightly weighted with the claim for Rachel King and to my eye, she’s way over the odds. $12 to place and $61 to win is very appealing. (13) Star Of Monsoon was luckless last start and can continue his good form as a gelding. (17) Missile Coda and (2) Osbourne Bulls good chances but short enough.
TIP: (8) Suncraze / (14) No Interest EW
QUADDIE
4, 6, 9
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
3, 13
2, 5, 8, 13, 14, 17
$100 = 46.29%
