Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, February 3rd.
We have a nine-race card on a Soft 6 track with the rail in the 3m position, which is generally the fairest rail position at Rosehill.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 20 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Caulfield and Rosehill Tim is keenest to bet into.
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Addictive Nature
Best Value: Race 8 Mortar Platoon EW / Firebird Flyer EW
RACE 1
Keen to back (7) Charlayne to get the day underway here. Chris Waller gave this filly a good push before her debut run and she justified that with an impressive win at Canterbury over 1100m. I’m normally wary of horses coming to Rosehill or Randwick off a Canterbury win, but she didn’t lead, so I’m more inclined to think she did it based on ability rather than running position. 53.5kg and Kerrin McEvoy on board from barrier 1, keen to stick with her at $4.60. (8) Problem Solver comes off a win in the Gold Coast Magic Millions maiden race. The horse he beat came out and won its next start so the form looks reasonable. Likely to push forward from the wide barrier, I rate it as a chance but don’t have it on top. (5) Sheikha trialled relatively well behind Addictive Nature, who is close enough to favourite for the Group 2 race later on the card. (2) From Within is knocking on the door with recent placings. (4) Goldfinch and (9) We Have Lift Off are others to include at longer odds.
TIP: (7) Charlayne
RACE 2
Small field for the Canonbury Stakes but there’s a bit of intrigue. (1) Performer goes on top. He’s high up in Golden Slipper markets and the stable have had a very big opinion of this horse since day one. He went straight to the paddock after his debut win at Randwick, which was very impressive. Draws well, has trialled well, should be winning this. (4) Exceltic is Gary Portelli’s best chance of winning the Slipper. He’s won all three trials leading into today but he’ll have to be very good to roll Performer. (5) Stratosphere was a $1million yearling and represents the Snowden stable, who will have it spot on to win after two recent trials. (2) Dia D’Oro did a good job to run 2nd to the ultra-impressive Estijaab on debut but isn’t rated as highly as the stablemate Exceltic.
TIP: (1) Performer
RACE 3
Four main chances that I’m interested in here. (3) Into The Abyss goes on top and if you’re quick there’s still some $8 around. I think it starts shorter. She backed up a couple of good trials to win in good style on debut at Randwick. The horse she beat then came out and won dominantly at its next start, albeit at Gosford. Into The Abyss then went back to the trials and went to the line under a strangle hold, and from the wide barrier here I’d imagine she will roll forward and be right up on the pace once again. Keen to back her at the price. Also having something on (8) Impetuoso from the Snowden stable at $12. Didn’t get much luck on debut in the Gimcrack when held up until late in the race. Returns here with just one trial under the belt but Snowden will have her ready to go with the blinkers on first time. (11) Greysful Glamour made nice improvement from her first trial to her second trial and can be competitive at big odds. (2) Fiesta gets the blinkers on for the first time today, first up from a spell and should be thereabouts but is a touch short for mine.
TIP: (3) Into The Abyss / (8) Impetuoso EW
RACE 4
This is a bad race. (7) Flow found his right race last time in and won dominantly, which he’s been threatening to do for a while now. He certainly finds another winnable race today but I can’t back him at $2.50. In saying that, I can’t find much to beat him either. With the track rated soft, it could really set things up for (5) King Darci, who could take some catching if he’s able to find the front. He’s had seven starts on soft ground for three wins and three placings, so at $6.50 he might represent a decent each way bet. (4) Cellarman bounced back to win last start, aided by a gun ride from Bowman. Shinn takes back over today which is a concern, and his record at Rosehill isn’t too inspiring, with just two placings from five starts. There isn’t much between him and King Darci, as evidenced by their clashes earlier this prep. (3) Pelethronius is better suited second up and up in distance, and the soft track really enhances his chances. He could be the value in the race at $10. (2) Liapari is ready to win one but if the track is soft it’s a big negative for him.
TIP: (5) King Darci / (3) Pelethronius EW
RACE 5
Kopi Luwak looked a complete moral but he’s been scratched, which will leave his stabnlemate (13) Acquittal a very short priced favourite. He won a Highway Handicap last start when beating Kopi Luwak, who looks pretty smart, and they cleared out from the 3rd horse, so with a good draw today he should be able to win again. (4) Mister Marmalade probably the best chance to beat him but might not appreciate the soft ground. (7) Mate Story not hopeless down in grade.
TIP: (13) Acquittal
RACE 6
Not a race where anything really stands out so I’ll be having a small throw at the stumps with some at bigger odds. (10) Travancore got a long way back (as he tends to do) last start behind the impressive Danzie, but prior to that he beat Smartedge and should have beat the same horse three starts ago too. He carries just 50.5kg today and although he’ll get a long way back on the inside, he’s worth another chance at $7.50. (3) Sizzling Bullet didn’t do much first up but he’s undefeated second up and if the track is still soft by race time he’ll appreciate that. He can improve sharply today at double figure odds. Stablemate (4) Quick Defence is also second up and will run honest as he always does. He just seems to struggle to win but he’ll be thereabouts. No knock on (9) Bye See who really gets its chance to win again today, while (5) Tahsin appears to be flying but got a perfect run last start and the drop back in trip is some concern.
TIP: (10) Travancore EW / (3) Sizzling Bullet EW
RACE 7
Fairly keen to take on (2) Global Glamour here, who comes up favourite at $2.90. She had a gut-buster first up with 60.5kg on her back (though she was still a touch plain) and her second up record isn’t great at all. Really liked the trials of (8) Addictive Nature who looks the horse best suited by 1200m here. He was a Group 3 winner last preparation and although that was over 1400m, I think in this field he’s going to handle the 1200m the best. He can lead or box seat from barrier 2 and be very hard to run down. Taking $3.30. (5) Trapeze Artist bolted in to win the Group 1 Golden Rose over 1400m last preparation when he was third up and had the blinkers applied. The key today is that he wears the blinkers from his first start for the prep – they aren’t waiting until later in the prep. Although he’s a winner over 1200m, I just wonder whether he might be better suited still over 1400m. Taking $4.20 as a saver though.
TIP: (8) Addictive Nature
RACE 8
Another little Waller-a-thon here. Wide open race but I’ll stick with a few of Waller’s as there’s a couple at longer odds that do appeal. I do think the one to beat is, however, (3) Vaucluse Bay, who is knocking on the door to win another race. He possibly had an excuse last start when caught wide early, but he really does get his chance here. The concern is the fact he goes back up to 59kg. (2) Mortar Platoon will really appreciate the give in the ground here, and for that reason he’s currently over the odds at $21. He’s a horse that really needs it wet and he hasn’t had that for a long time, so render his other poor stats (such as track, distance etc.) useless as he’s just not as effective on the firm tracks. With 57kg after the claim I expect him to run a good race, but only if the track is still Soft. (11) Firebird Flyer is another of Waller’s that could be a sneaky chance at $23. This horse is in a similar boat to Mortar Platoon. She’s had 13 starts on Good ground for zero wins, but has had 10 starts on wet ground for two wins and four placings. She always takes a few runs to hit her straps, and completely forget she went around last start. She’s fifth up now on wet ground. She can surprise. Backing all three.
TIP: (3) Vaucluse Bay / (2) Mortar Platoon EW / (11) Firebird Flyer EW
RACE 9
Keen on two here. (12) Kaonic is expected to be a big player in some of the Group 1’s coming up, and if that’s the case then he should be putting away this field despite the fact he’s only won over 1550m. He’ll get back from the wide gate but he’ll appreciate this wet track, and I expect his class edge to make up for his lack of fitness and the unsuitable distance. (4) Insensata is the value in the race at about $9. She was fair first up but she should improve plenty from that and be ready to win second up here. The rise in trip certainly helps – she’s undefeated from three starts at the distance – and she’s also got a good record at this track. Expect her to give a very bold showing. (8) Don’t Give A Damn is a horse I really like, but this is easily his biggest test. I think he’s well up to this sort of grade, but he meets a couple of very handy ones here, and he needs to prove himself given he’s only ever raced in restricted Highway Handicap races in the city. (2) Careless the blowout.
TIP: (12) Kaonic / (4) Insensata EW
QUADDIE
3, 4, 5, 9, 10
5, 8
2, 3, 4, 7, 11
4, 8, 12
$100 = 66.66%
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