Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for midweek racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, January 17th.
We have a seven-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the 3m position. We have tips and comments for every race on the card below, and the meeting will be followed by the twilight card at Caulfield in Melbourne.
WARWICK FARM RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 3 Akasaki
Best Value: Race 6 It's So Obvious EW
Race 1
Fairly dull affair to kick things off with just the six runners. The market is shaped in a way where I’m not particularly keen to get involved with anything, but I’ve got HIGH LOW BET on top. While many of the runners are still lightly-raced, their form is somewhat exposed. High Low Bet is first up from a spell here and having just its third race start. It won on debut and was then sent for a spell, before returning in August with a 7th place finish. She was spelled once again after that, which suggests she wasn’t 100% pulling up from that race. Her two trials leading into today’s race have been very quiet, yet promising. Hugh Bowman goes on straight away and not a claiming apprentice, which suggests to me she could be ready for the 1400m straight away. I’d rather take $4.80 for her than $2.30 for KISSING GAME. She comes out of a decent race behind Sasso Corbaro, who was then hard in the market in a good race at the Gold Coast last weekend. Gets her chance here. STELLA VICTORIA next best.
TIP: High Low Bet
Race 2
Not a bad race and there looks to be a bit of value around. CONDOR goes on top for me here at $8. He raced in some very strong juvenile races in his first campaign and wasn’t far away. He’s had three trials leading into this and all of them have been good. The horse that beat him in both of his most recent trials has since come out and won on debut at Taree. Granted, Taree maiden form isn’t city class, but it at least shows the trial form isn’t completely legless. It looks like he’s trained on as a three-year-old and I’d expect a bold showing first up here at a nice each way price. Another I’m expecting a bold showing from fresh is MILANESE GIRL for Waller and Avdulla. She’s been extremely disappointing in recent preps but her two trials this time in have been promising. She’ll enjoy a good run on speed from the barrier and can show up at big odds ($15). OMBUDSMAN is knocking on the door and Bowman takes over today. MOMENTUM TO WIN is an interesting runner at $26. He finished alongside Ombudsman at the trials, but that was only his first trial back, while it was Ombudsman’s second. The form hasn’t exactly turned out to be dynamite but Momentum To Win has more improvement to come from that trial and is a $26 chance, while Ombudsman is a $5 chance despite having three starts since that trial. SONG AND A PRAYER was sound on debut and can improve. Backing Condor, with something small on both Milanese Girl and Momentum To Win at big odds.
TIP: Condor / Milanese Girl EW
Race 3
Very keen to bet here. Really happy with the price we’re getting for AKASAKI, who ticks a lot of boxes for me. He resumed with a good first up run over this track and distance, before a flat run second up last time out, but he pulled up with poor post-race recovery and his second up run can typically be like that. His third up record is very good, however, and suggests he will bounce back today. He’s had three weeks off since that last run and now drops back to 1000m. He’s had a win and a placing from three starts at the track, and two wins and two placings from four starts at the distance. Gets in-form apprentice Blaike McDougall on board who rode a treble on the weekend, and takes on a very beatable field. $4.60 is a good price for a clear top pick. JOHNNY ROO BOY is possibly the value in the race at $7. He comes out of a couple of strong races and drops back to Wednesday grade here. First up he finished 3rd to Viceroy, who then ran a narrow 2nd at his next start, and last start he was just outclassed by a decent field. Third up here with red-hot Jason Collett taking over from the apprentice, should go well. KING’S TARIFF is third up here from a long spell here and drops in weight with the apprentice claim, so can give a bold showing. My query is the Gosford form he comes through but he looks to have returned well. Fairly happy to take on the rest.
TIP: Akasaki / Johnny Roo Boy EW
Race 4
WITCHES goes on top here, just about by default. The former Godolphin mare won her first start for the new stable at Randwick last start, and it was done in nice fashion. She attacked the line after settling back in the field, and that was only her first start for the campaign, so despite her previously poor second up record, I’ll stick with her here based on her having just her second start for the new trainer. FANNING does come out of some decent races at his past two starts and I respect the form out of them, but I still can’t take $3.20 about him. UNO BEST ran 3rd to Witches last start and looks set to peak third up from a spell here. Gets a 2kg weight swing and can be competitive once again. If Witches races flat second up then this could be your winner at good odds. I’ll nibble the $9 on offer. ALL IN RHYTHM isn’t hopeless, but the rest really do look like battlers.
TIP: Witches / Uno Best EW
Race 5
Five main chances to mention here. PROMETHEUS goes on top but he’s far from a sure thing. He finds a winnable race and has won both starts this preparation, and the step up to midweek city grade look suitable at this stage of his prep. Typically I’d be keen to oppose Kembla Grange form but he’s in the right stable to be able to handle this class rise. BARBEQUE ran 3rd in a decent Saturday race last start behind Aqua D’ivina and Island Missile, but I thought he was a bit plain late. He’s been well-backed early for this race, but he’ll find himself out near the back again during the run. SIR BARB looks ready to do something. I’ve been waiting for him to get to this stage of his prep, as he typically takes one or two runs to come good. He’s got a good record at this track and distance and looks ready to peak third up at good odds. MULTIFACETS ran his best race all prep when he was first up last campaign over this track and distance. He’s had two trials and seems to go best at this distance, so I’d keep him very safe with Bowman on. He’s at $15. TAHSIN ran well at this track three starts ago before a luckless run at Canterbury. He then won the Mudgee Cup last start so he seems to be going well and shouldn’t be ruled out. Backing Prometheus with something small on Sir Barb and Multifacets.
TIP: Prometheus / Sir Barb EW
Race 6
Two I’m interested in here. NINE’S ENOUGH has a great chance but is much shorter in the market than I expected it to be at the $3.70 mark. She was a dominant winner on debut back in December of 2016 before a 12-month spell. She resumed at Hawkesbury where she bumped into a smart one in Sasso Corbaro, before a luckless run last time out at Canterbury. She drew barrier 1 on that occasion and will have the same issue here from barrier 1 again. In terms of form she probably goes on top but she’s well short enough in the market. I’m really interested in IT’S SO OBVIOUS at the $8.50 on offer. She’s first up from a spell with one trial under her belt. She ran 2nd in the trial, beaten by Supreme Effort, who has come out of that trial and been very competitive in two Listed races. She has a good first up record, a good record at the distance and gets the blinkers back on today. Draws wide, but think she’ll run a big race.
TIP: Nine’s Enough / It’s So Obvious EW
Race 7
Nice race to finish with. DANZIE goes on top first up from a spell after a stylish trial win leading into today. He had some reasonable form in his first campaign and despite it all being in provincial races he looks capable of making the step up to midweek city grade. Jason Collett and barrier 1 are both positives. Interested in backing TIME OUT OF MIND, who comes into this third up from a spell. Ran well first up under a big weight and finished off well behind Witches last start. Won third up last prep, Avdulla takes over and draws a good gate. Saving on TRAVANCORE who beat a fairly smart horse in Smartedge last start and looks to be going well this preparation. AQUATIC ran well behind Sugar Bella four days ago but has won just one race from 20 starts. Backing Danzie and Time Out Of Mind, with a saver on Travancore.
TIP: Danzie / Time Out Of Mind EW
QUADDIE
3, 6, 8
2, 3, 5, 9, 10
7, 8, 10
2, 4, 9, 12
$100 = 55.55%
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