Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, December 23rd.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. I’m predicting that, given the rail was in the 6m position last Friday night, the grass on the inside may be a touch fresher, and therefore the outside more compact, so horses should get their chance to swoop.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Muraahib
Best Value: Race 6 King's Command EW / Khutulun EW
Race 1
Tough race to start off with and every horse can win here, as indicated by the market having all bar one in single figures. I’ve landed on BONUS D’ORO by default here because I don’t like a few of the others. She’s knocking on the door for another win this mare, and went very close last start on soft ground. Back onto firm ground is a positive, but she’s going to need luck from barrier 1. $4.60 is probably a price I could entertain, only because I have queries on others. MILES OF KRISHAN at $6 goes in for second pick and is worth backing at that price after running 2nd in Adelaide last start. She gets the in-form Ethan Brown on board and is in line to win another race. She’ll put herself on speed and be there for a long way. STORMSABREWING is a horse I quite like but just always runs into trouble or finds a couple better. Her best would be good enough to win this, and the small field gives her a chance to avoid trouble that she typically finds in big fields. Mark Zahra takes over from Beau Mertens which is a big positive, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her win. No knock on HEAVENLY DESCENT who has won two from three at the track and ran 2nd to Mrs Gardenia last start. Taking on LA FLEURETTE who has never placed from three starts at this track and has only placed twice from six starts at the distance. ROYAL APPLAUSE rises quite significantly in grade.
TIP: Bonus D’Oro / Miles Of Krishan EW
Race 2
Keen to be with KARDASHING here who I backed last start but just ran into the smart Bella Martini. She should go forward from barrier 9 and Ben Melham taking over from apprentice Ethan Brown is a positive change, despite Brown being in form. I think there’s more to come and I like the step up from 1200m to 1500m for this filly. $4.40 is the price we’re getting, which is about as short as I’d want to go. PLEASURING comes up favourite for Weir and Lane, despite being a maiden in BM70 grade. That normally would be enough to turn me off, but Weir wouldn’t enter her here if she wasn’t good enough. We’ve seen how he can get horses to improve lengths when they come to town, so I’ll be keeping her safe. SUPER HUSSEY can run a good race from the better draw. If they go back from barrier 2 they’ll find trouble, so hopefully they sit a touch further forward. She won nicely first up and finished the race off very well behind Bella Martini and Kardashing last start. Very tough race.
TIP: Kardashing / Super Hussey EW
Race 3
Four main hopes here and we’re going to need some good rides in the big field. LA VOLT goes on top at $6. He ran well first up at Sale and ran well again last start at Caulfield when he had no luck in the straight, held up from the 400m-200m before finishing off well on the rails. His second up record reads pretty poor so hopefully his good run indicates he’s in good shape this prep. Typically I’d be steering clear of a 3kg apprentice from barrier 15, but it could be a blessing to be drawn wide early on the program in my opinion. The value could be CALENDAR LAD, who draws polar opposite with the inside gate. He’s done little in two starts back from a spell, but they’ve both been on soft ground, and as his record shows, he just doesn’t go on wet ground. With two runs under the belt and a good track, he could outrun his $21 quote. The money has come for the Weir runner RANSOM MONEY who gains a run due to scratchings. I’d think he’d need to improve but he gets a gun barrier, an in-form apprentice to take weight off, and he’s in the right stable to find the necessary improvement. The money is certainly there to suggest he’ll go close. MACATTACK draws well in barrier 8 and comes off two good runs to start the prep. Bonus D’Oro could be a good indicator of the strength of the form from his last start, but he gets out to a distance he’s performed well at and should run a good race. VUNGERS next best, while GUANGZHOU will be a big effort if he is to win.
TIP: La Volt / Calendar Lad EW
Race 4
With O’LONERA scratched I’m pretty keen on backing the Weir runner CRAFTY DEVIL each way at $6 here. Won well two starts ago over this track and distance and in this grade, and only carries 2kg more here. Ran 3rd in the Ararat Cup last start and has had a short break since then, so betting will tell us all we need to know pre-race about whether he is in good enough shape to win or not. Expecting sharp improvement from MULTITUDE here, who is from the Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott stable and is now third up. His second up record is terrible (never placed from five starts) so don’t take too much notice of his run last start, but his third up record suggests he will improve here. Back on to firm ground should assist him; he’ll go straight to the front and give a good sight at $13. There’s been a good go for THE THUG who gets Damian Lane booked for the ride to take over from Fred Kersley. Draws barrier 1 and comes out of a good form race behind Last Week, so you have to respect him. FONTEIN LAD and SHARDS next best – David Hayes gave a big push for Shards and labelled him his best value bet of the weekend.
TIP: Crafty Devil / Multitude EW
Race 5
I’m surprised to see ONCIDIUM RULER drift in early markets because he looks well suited here. He wasn’t ridden well last start in the Pakenham Cup, and the jockey change from Mertens to Ethan Brown is a positive in my opinion, not only because of the weight relief but in terms of form at present too. He’s won his only start at this track and looks to get a sweet run from the gate, and has a good grounding for the 2500m here. IMPERIAL AVIATOR stamped himself as a stayer to follow after an impressive win in Sydney last start, which followed up his positive Australian debut. He stays at the 2500m after running over 2400m last start, so the fact he’s had the run over 2400m leading into this is a positive, but his third up record is some cause for concern. He’s had the three runs for just one placing, which is noticeably worse than his second up record (two wins, two placings from four starts). Not saying he can’t win, but I can’t back him at the price. There’s been money for both SURVIVED and BLING DYNASTY but I’m not convinced they are as classy as the first two, though Bling Dynasty does carry just 51kg. CRAFTY CRUISER a decent each way bet if not interested in the favourites.
TIP: Oncidium Ruler
Race 6
Keen on three runners here and will be playing the two longshots. KING’S COMMAND goes on top here first up from a spell. This horse has a great first up record with three wins and a 2nd placing from four starts. He’s won twice at the distance and also has a solid record at the track with a win and two placings from three starts. Gets in with 57kg after the claim and draws reasonably well in barrier 9, and at $13 I think he’s a terrific each way bet. KHUTULUN is the other at big odds that’s worth a bet. She’s another that’s first up and she also has a terrific fresh record with three wins from six starts. She’ll be better over the mile but she can sprint well fresh. She’s had five starts over 1200m for two wins and two placings, and draws well in barrier 3. The 3kg apprentice Nathan Punch doesn’t fill me with confidence, but at the odds she’s worth a throw at the stumps. JUST HIFALUTIN comes up $6 and is definitely worth backing to cover our bets. She won in terrific style last start over this track and distance, keeping her unblemished record at the distance intact. She’s a mare that needs luck in her races, and she certainly got it last start thanks to a great ride from Luke Currie, and she will need it again from the wide barrier. PAINTE, ESSENCE OF TERROR and KIEVANN others to consider.
TIP: King’s Command / Khutulun EW
Race 7
Best bet of the day here with MURAAHIB, who returns from a break as a gelding. First up last prep this horse ran 3rd to Merchant Navy – form lines don’t come much better than that for a race like this. He draws well in barrier 5 and all things being equal, should be too classy here. TELEPLAY won well on debut at Kilmore and can measure up, while MISS SKEPTICAL is the blowout in the field after breaking its maiden at Bairnsdale last start. The stable ran her in some good races in her debut preparation but she didn’t show anything, but she’s returned in better form this prep. BEL SONIC also returned in good style and should run well, while AEECEE TONG DE shouldn’t be discounted from the Waterhouse/Bott stable after a win in Sydney first up.
TIP: Muraahib (Best Bet)
Race 8
This is easily the most competitive race on the card. WISE HERO goes on top. He’s a horse I’ve had a lot of time for since he debuted and his run first up from a spell was good enough to suggest he can win here. He was nosed out by NASDEX on that occasion, but gets a swing in the weights here and should appreciate getting back onto firmer ground. From the good draw he should get a dream run and he looks very hard to beat. INVINCIBLE AL can be forgiven for failing last start on wet ground. He won well first up at this track and has a great record at this distance, so back onto firm ground he’s another that can fire at double figure odds with Tahlia Hope taking 3kg off. As mentioned, NASDEX beat Wise Hero first up but concedes weight here. Despite that, he will go forward and give a bold sight. He’s undefeated second up from a spell and has won five from nine at the distance. KEN’S DREAM is first up here as a gelding. This horse started $3.30 favourite in a Group 2 in Adelaide so has no shortage of talent, and the gelding operation may just take him to the next level. I think from the very wide barrier they’re going to take him back in order not to gas him first up, so he’ll need to be good to win. MODERN WONDER bolted in two starts ago at this track and is undefeated here. She’s also got a terrific record at the distance so can bounce back from a heavy track failure behind Debonairly last start. LADY ESPRIT and LEODORO not hopeless. Happy to take on MOGADOR despite trialling well leading into his first up run here. The blue jackets of Godolphin can go around without me in Melbourne.
TIP: Wise Hero / Invincible Al EW
Race 9
Hard to be against WIDGEE TURF here who bolted in first up from a spell on a heavy track at Sandown. There is some concern that he may be a bit flat following the hard run on the very wet track, but if he’s taken no ill-effect from that then he should prove awfully hard to beat here. I think the value in the race is BEL BURGESS at $9.50. He’s taken a few runs to come good this preparation but he won the Wodonga Cup last start in good style, and gets the in-form Ethan Brown on board here. Draws well and has won his only start at the track and distance, so he’s a good chance in this. AMADEUS was another good last-start winner but my queries lie with the tactics likely to be employed. Typically, Mick Kent runners go back, and from the inside draw, it’s likely that Craig Williams will find some traffic. MR GUSTAVO was a dominant winner here two starts ago before failing on soft ground last start. Definitely worth including at $16.
TIP: Widgee Turf / Bel Burgess EW
QUADDIE (wide – skinny)
2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 14 2, 3, 5, 13, 14
1, 2, 8, 11, 12 2, 11
5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 14 6, 7, 11, 12, 14
1, 5, 6, 9 1, 6, 9
$100 = 12% $100 = 66.66%
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