Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Friday night racing under lights at Moonee Valley on December 1st.
We have an eight-race card with the rail in the True position, which generally allows horses to make looping runs and swoop, but if this rain falls as predicted, there’s a chance it could be hard to make ground. The track is currently a Good 3 but they’re forecasting 25-50mm of rain throughout the day, which would see us racing on a Soft track at the very best.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
SANDOWN RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 8 Emaan
Best Value: Race 6 Galileo’s Pearl
Race 1
I’ve got a pretty clear top two to start things off here. Pretty keen to be with Weir’s horse LARANTA who comes to the city after running 2nd by a nose on a soft track at Donald last start. That was the first time she’s shown something in her five-start career, which could have been due to the step up to the mile. She stays at the mile here and although this is technically a city race, it’s still a pretty thin maiden and a winnable one at that. Expecting improvement once again here and from barrier 7 I’m hoping they can find a nice spot somewhere close to the speed. Should handle a wet track and the $6/$2.15 on offer looks a good each way bet to start off the night. The biggest danger is the favourite GLOBAL SANCTION who has had just the two starts and has run well on both occasions. She hit the line hard last start despite being wide in the mid-stages of the race, and it was on a soft 7 so conditions won’t be an issue tonight. I’d expect she will be midfield at worst from the good barrier and the mile really looks to suit her. We’re getting $3.80 and I’ll be saving on her at the very least. CONSIDERING has run 3rd at her past four starts, three of which were on soft ground. They’ll go forward from barrier 10 and if they lead she’ll be tough to run down. Interesting booking of apprentice Steph Thornton despite being unable to use her claim. Happy to back Laranta each way at $6 and save on Global Sanction at $3.80.
TIP: Laranta EW
Race 2
Tricky little race. Fairly interested in MAGNESIUM ROSE who resumes for the first time since her debut win at Bairnsdale back in July. She sped out to lead on that occasion before kicking away to win, and the horse she beat has measured up against some decent horses. She’s won a trial leading into this and my initial impression is that she’s been set for this. Ethan Brown takes off a valuable 3kg and I’d expect them to make use of barrier 1. My slight query is obviously the wet track, but also the speed in the race because there looks to be a few who could go in search of the lead. Still think she could be the most progressive horse in the race and $5.50 is a backable price on an each way basis. WRAPSODY absolutely bolted in first up at Echuca before tackling a strong race at Flemington during the carnival. Gets the sit on the leaders here so will enjoy a good tempo; my query is the wet track. If they do go hard up front, it should play into the hands of REWARDING LAUGHTER, who is also a winner on heavy ground. CAMILA LUCINDA won well two starts ago and bumped into a Group 1 horse in Nature Strip last time out. She’s one horse that will push forward from barrier 3. SIERRODORA the blowout at $23 with the blinkers going on first time after winning at Dunkeld last start.
TIP: Magnesium Rose EW
Race 3
A 3000m on a potential heavy track could mean this is an absolute lottery, and it looks that way anyway. I was keen on ZOFFANY ROSE last start and even though the run was a touch disappointing, she didn’t get a great run and was checked at the 400m to be well back coming around the turn. She gets a significant jockey change with 3kg apprentice Jess Eaton replaced by Craig Williams, and if you assess her off her form prior to last start then she can easily bounce back here. Query on the wet track but she’s run well on soft ground previously so I’m prepared to give her another shot at $5. The 3kg rise in weight may not be enough to stop WEAVE winning again, after saluting over this track and distance last start. Looks to get the same run as he did last start and he’s performed well on wet ground before so I’ve got no knock on him. Dare I say it but CRAFTY CRUISER has to be a legitimate chance in this given his phenomenal record at the distance. He’s had eight starts over 3000m and has finished in the top two on seven occasions, including five 2nd placings over the track and distance. The wide draw and a genuinely heavy track would be some query. There’s been money for ROCK AWAY but his prep seems awfully strange and I couldn’t have him stepping up from 2000m to 3000m in the space of two weeks. CHERON WARRIOR comes out of the same race behind Weave and Crafty Cruiser last start and also gets a significant jockey change with Dunn going on. He’ll go back from barrier 13 and will need to be good to win from there. NASSI is the absolute blowout IF the track gets to the heavy range. If it’s soft he’s probably no good.
TIP: Zoffany Rose / Crafty Cruiser EW
Race 4
Very keen on two here. The first is the favourite LAST WEEK who charged home to be beaten a lip by Almighty last week. A genuine heavy track would be the only query, and while he’ll have to be good from barrier 14, it does look a relatively thin race and a repeat of his last run would see him very hard to beat here. The best value in the race is clearly NANGAWOOKA at $14. He comes into this second up after a decent first up performance, and he gets to a distance that he’s had six starts at for three wins and two placings. He’s had eight starts on wet ground for two wins and four placings, and he’s had one run at the track where he ran 3rd. Draws barrier 1 so should get a suck run and looks a decent each way bet at the price. If it rains I doubt the likes of DANGLE LAD and RIVERINA EXPLORER will be suited, but we’re really relying on the rain to come here.
TIP: Last Week / Nangawooka EW
Race 5
Two in particular that I’m keen to be on here. I’ve got no knock on the favourite BELWAZI after two good wins to start the prep, taking his career total to three wins from four starts, but I just question the strength of that form overall. Barrier 4 should see him get a lovely run and he was a dominant winner on a heavy track on debut but just at the prices I’m keen to back others. The next two in the current market are the ones I’ll be backing. MAGNETAR is first up and his first up record stands at three races for three wins. He won a trial leading into this and looks ready to go fresh. He’s had just the one start at the Valley for a 3rd placing, and has won twice over 1000m so with the 1.5kg claim for Ben Allen, he should be going very close. PRAVRO would like as much rain as possible given he’s won two of his three starts on heavy ground. He resumed with a good run over this track and distance a month ago, running home strongly from back in the field to grab 2nd. He’s won two from three when second up from a spell, so expect him to improve once again. From this stable, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift in the market, which is what I’m hoping will happen. PUNT CLUB has a great record at the track and distance and is much better suited second up from a spell here. Mitch Aitken booked to ride from barrier 10 is my biggest issue. Backing both Magnetar and Pravro.
TIP: Magnetar / Pravro
Race 6
Very open race. Interested in TRISTANO on the wet ground, after he produced a sound win two starts ago on a soft track. Prior to that he ran 2nd to Villermont which obviously turned out to be a very strong formline, and the horse that beat him last start then came out and ran well again on Wednesday. His breeding suggests he will love the rain-affected ground and he should get a nice enough run from barrier 7. I’m tipping another out of left field here and that’s GALILEO’S PEARL at $31. This horse did absolutely nothing first up, but it never does anything first up. It’s had four starts first up for just one placing, but he’s had three starts second up for one win and one placing. Look back to last prep and he ran last and was beaten 11L, but then came out second up on a heavy track and won. It’s fairly typical of Mick Kent runners and we only saw it a few weeks ago with Oncidium Ruler. The 3kg claim is helpful and so is the barrier. Can outrun its odds here. BEACH LIFE looks to be a swimmer and will go forward. My only query is the 2000m with this horse, and the fact he pulled up lame last start and has had four weeks between runs. MAGELLAN is another wet tracker and must be included, while the favourite PERSIAN EMPIRE comes off a visually impressive win and obviously can’t be dismissed, while KASTOR brings some good form to the race but positions poorly from barrier 2.
TIP: Tristano / Galileo’s Pearl EW (Best Value)
Race 7
The only thing stopping YOU’VE BEEN HAD from bolting in here is the wet track. He’s been dominant in two starts to date, the most recent of which was a 3.25L win over 1000m at Mornington, and the horse that ran 2nd won his next start by more than 2L. He draws barrier 4 here and looks a very smart type, but he had two trials on heavy ground earlier in the year and was unimpressive in both, so that’s the biggest cause for concern. STRYKINGLY is the obvious danger after a good first up run over 1000m here behind Sprightly Lass, who is undefeated. She’s got a terrific second up record and has a significant jockey change with Ben Melham taking over from apprentice Ethan Brown. I thought IN FAIRNESS could be a good roughie for exotics here at $19. He’s got a good first up record with two wins and two placings from four starts, has two wins from four starts at the track and has won on wet ground. Has a big weight to carry but could go well fresh. TANGO ROCK s another with a good first up record that could feature, while MR WALKER, I BOOGI and REINCARNATE are others to throw in.
TIP: You’ve Been Had
Race 8
Three main chances I like here but I just keep coming back to EMAAN. This filly was held up the entire straight on debut back in June, and was put straight in the paddock after that run. She resumed with a dominant win at Geelong when leading all the way, and she’s bred to be a swimmer so should get conditions to suit tonight. I’ve got a knock on a few of her main rivals so I see no reason why she can’t win this and I think the $3.30 is actually a reasonable price. STRANGEST DREAM could be the value in the race at $9.50. She’s second up here after running 3rd to Private Lounge first up at Kyneton, without a lot of luck. She’s won two races when second up and has two wins from four starts on soft ground. So long as Aitken can ride it well, I’d expect a good run here. EL QUESTRO is the last legitimate winning chance after a luckless run last start. She won two on the bounce leading into that and should be competitive. MELODIES WAY the complete blowout.
TIP: Emaan (Best Bet) / Strangest Dream EW
QUADDIE (wide – skinny)
1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12 1, 4, 7, 9
1, 2, 4, 6, 10, 11, 12 11, 12
5, 9, 13, 16 5, 9, 13
$100 = 10% $100 = 83%
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
