Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Royal Randwick on Saturday, October 19th.
We have a nine-race card in Sydney with the Group 3 Nivison and Listed Brian Crowley Stakes headlining the program. There’s been a stack of rain overnight so we’ll be racing on a wet track with the rail out 9m.
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In Episode 5 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Randwick and Caulfield and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, October 21st! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. You can also check out our Caulfield Preview & Betting Tips here for Caulfield Cup Day!
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 3 Goodfella
Best Value: Race 7 Kinsachi
Race 1
Difficult start to the day with a field of nine two-year-old’s, eight of which are on debut. Hard to get a gauge on which horses will handle the wet ground, but TACTICAL FORMATION will jump straight to the front like he did when winning a recent trial by 6L. He’s bred by Mossman which typically love the wet ground and with the rail out 9m, I’d rather be up on speed than back in the field. Should give himself every chance. FIESTA was unlucky on debut when finishing 3rd behind a handy winner Satin Slipper. I think the two-year-old races on that day will prove to be strong form races, so she rates highly in this. She draws well but will settle midfield at best, and provided she handles the wet ground she will be hard to beat. The Lindsay Park team send ALSHAHHAD over from Melbourne. He’s won one trial at Wodonga leading into this and as we’ve already seen this season, the stable is one of the strongest in the country when it comes to two-year-old’s. The two Godolphin debutantes GODODDIN and GORGONS are both bred by Exceed And Excel, whose progeny typically prefer dry ground.
TIP: Tactical Formation
Race 2
Think this is just about a two-horse race and as mentioned on the podcast, I’m very keen to be on KAONIC. His win at Canterbury last time we saw him was extremely impressive, motoring home from well back in the field to chase down the leader. I think he’s a pretty good horse who will go on to much better races and the only box he needs to tick is the wet track. He looks to have a serious engine so if he handles the ground I think he’ll win again. The biggest threat to him on paper looks to be OUR MANTRA, who comes out of two good form races. Two starts ago he ran 2nd to Beau Geste (favourite for a race in Melbourne today) and last start he ran 2nd to Goodfella (likely to start favourite in a race later on at Randwick). My biggest concern is the wet ground for him as he failed on it on debut. The soft ground will be no problem for REGENT, and it could also see THE MIGHTY FED return to some sort of form.
TIP: Kaonic
Race 3
Wide open Highway Handicap here and very few runners with wet track form so there’s not much to go off. I’ll be taking on the favourite REKINDLED FORCE who won well on debut at Muswellbrook but it was only a maiden and its bred by Redoutes Choice, so if the track is genuinely wet he may struggle. Happy to have something each way on KOORINGAL STAR who is first up here and is one of the only horses with form on wet ground. He ran 3rd behind Fickle Folly in a similar race first up last preparation, which was on a Soft 5, before going back to the country and bolting in by 5 lengths on another Soft 5. Drawn well, has a god enough first up record and looks one of the more reliable horses here, but this is a race which could see a blowout result. POLSKIE LADY and NEYLA’S GIRL two at huge odds to be included.
TIP: Kooringal Star EW
Race 4
ALWARD now looks probably the lay of the day with the wet ground. He’s in flying form but he’s never placed from five starts on soft ground, so at $1.95 I’ll be taking him on heavily. It’s no surprise to see the money come in for DESTINY’S KISS, who goes significantly better on rain-affected tracks. He comes out of the St Leger Stakes behind Big Duke last start where he ran 4th, and he’s had eight runs at this track and distance for four wins and two placings. The big query is obviously carrying 6.5kg more than any other horse in the race, but he’s won 6 races from 14 starts on heavy ground and gets conditions to suit tday. ADMIRAL JELLO is racing consistently and only went own very narrowly to Auvray last start. Auvray then came out and ran 2nd to Big Duke last start so the form ties in. He’s placed in both tries on wet ground but has never raced on a heavy track. Sure to go well and clear second pick in the race. SOCIAL ELEMENT next best.
TIP: Destiny’s Kiss
Race 5
Keen to back DAGNY each way here. She was good first up over 1200m when running on to fijnish 3rd, and last start she had no luck at all and never got clear in the straight. Up to her best distance now of 1400m where she’s never finished outside the top two, and should be ready to win now third up from a spell. Has finished 1st and 2nd in two runs on heavy ground and is bred to love the rain, so from the good draw she gets conditions to suit today and is a strong winning chance. IMPROVEMENT is flying. Only went down very narrowly two starts ago and her run last start was huge after being caught wide on the speed throughout the race. She draws wide but will go forward and she’s won on heavy ground before so she will be right in the finish again. PEACOCK failed at his only start on heavy ground but he’s bred to relish these conditions, being by Lonhro out of a Commands mare. He’s won on soft ground and he spelled immediately after his failure on heavy ground so he’s worth another chance. SHAZZA LEE and COLLATERAL both love heavy going, while KING DARCI has a great record at this track and distance and excels on soft ground. He might still need this run and be peaking next start but can’t be discounted.
TIP: Dagny EW
Race 6
Very, very keen on GOODFELLA here who will start a short price after the scratching of Single Bullet. Goodfella produced a huge win last start when settling three-wide on the speed but still managed to fight off Our Mantra. Drops back to 1200m here but I don’t see that being much of an issue. He’s won his only start on heavy ground and is capable of going on to better races so he looks the clear standout to my eye and one of the best bets of the day. ALBUMIN and MALAHAT come out of a hot form race behind Viridine, while ANDAZ should improve. CHAUFFEUR has failed on both occasions when struck with a heavy track, PIRACY needs to improve, and MUSTAFA finds a tough race on debut. Very keen Goodfella.
TIP: Goodfella (Best Bet)
Race 7
DIDDUMS looks one of the other better bets on the card after a dominant display first up from a spell at Rosehill last start. She came out of a hot trial behind She Will Reign leading up to that, and produced a brilliant performance to lead all the way to win by more than 2 lengths over 1100m. Steps up to 1200m now which is a distance she’s raced at four times for two wins and two 2nds, and she’s had three starts on heavy ground for a win and a 2nd. Draws beautifully in barrier 4 today and should be very hard to beat once again. There’s no shortage of horses with wet track form in the race, though. KINSACHI looks the clear value at double figure odds. She’s won three from four when first up from a spell and has two wins and a 2nd from three starts on heavy ground. Won her only start at the track and distance, and has five wins and two placings from eight starts at the distance. Very keen to have something on at the odds. I thought ZESTFUL was a huge price but now that the rain has come her chances are probably gone. She’s been luckless in two starts this prep and is undefeated third up from a spell but her best form has come on good tracks. DIXIE BLOSSOMS and DAYSEE DOOM are the two class runners of the field but both drop back from 1600m to 1200m, a distance probably short of their best. WHITE MOSS is building a terrific record but steps up from midweek class to Group 3 class here so needs to improve once again to win.
TIP: Diddums / Kinsachi EW (Best Value)
Race 8
Very interesting race because many of these fancied horses aren’t suited, in my opinion. ZENALICIOUS has only placed once from five starts at the track and has failed in both starts on heavy ground. BLACK ON GOLD has never placed from four starts on heavy ground. HOGMANAY has only placed once from five starts at the distance and is yet to win from seven starts at the track. IMPRAVIDO has never placed from three starts on heavy ground. So that’s four horses $10 and under that I’m keen to take on. I landed on MAPMAKER by default given his great recent form and the fact that he’s at least won on soft ground and placed twice on heavy ground. He finished 2nd to Interlocuter last start which is a form line that can be followed. Prior to that he won over 1500m at Rosehill. There’s nothing to suggest he can’t run well again today so he is worth backing at the $7 on offer. WU GOK normally needs further than this and a few runs under his belt but he ran terrific first up behind Mapmaker. He gets a 1.5kg weight swing today and has won twice on heavy ground. My biggest concern is Christian Reith booked for the ride for Chris Waller, which is essentially just a pen job. I’d be including him in everything but I’m put off slightly by that. GAUGUIN got the blinkers on for the first time last start and saluted in midweek grade. He’s untested on wet ground so it’s hard to know how he will handle it, but he gets in very light with just 51.5kg and draws for a good run. Similar can be said for INTUERI who also won in midweek company last start. BE LIKE DAD has only placed twice from eight starts at the distance but has a terrific record on heavy ground so must be included.
TIP: Mapmaker EW
Race 9
We’ll round out the card with a good bet on NEW UNIVERSE. This horse has plenty of talent. He’s won four of his six career starts and his two wins at the start of last preparation were highly impressive. Put a line through his run at the end of last preparation. If he returns in the same style as last prep he’ll win this, and he’s bred by Darci Brahma so he should relish the wet track. Had the two quiet trials leading into this and looks a horse destined for better races than this. ZUMBELINA hates wet ground so I’m more than happy to risk her. CRAFTY COP is next best; he ran ell first up behind Diddums and has a good record on heavy ground, while ZIGGY WILLIE has had no luck in two starts so far this campaign so is worth including at good odds. Very keen New Universe.
TIP: New Universe
_ _ _
The team at TopBetta have announced of their brand new GOAT Tote product, offering punters guaranteed better odds than provided on the regular totes. Don't be satisfied with poor odds! Check out the GOAT Tote which will give you the biggest bang for your buck when punting on the races this weekend!
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
