Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Royal Randwick on Saturday, October 14th.
The 10-race card is obviously highlighted by the inaugural running of the $10million TAB Everest, with two Listed races and the Group 3 Craven Plate also to look forward to.
The track is currently rated a Good 3 but there is plenty of rain predicted so I’m expecting to end up in the Soft 5-6 range.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below! You can also check out our Caulfield Preview & Tips here!
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 In Her Time
Best Value: Race 5 Oklahoma Girl
Race 1
Two horse race for mine between DON’T GIVE A DAMN and MY TAGOSON and I’m extremely keen on Don’t Give A Damn here. This horse won on debut at Goulburn before running 2nd to Suncraze in his first Highway Handicap. At his third start, he came out and demolished the Highway Handicap field to win by more than 6L. During the week, his trainer Danny Williams sent a tweet out saying it was scary how much the horse had improved since his last run, and said on radio the horse had improved 10L. That’s a pretty huge wrap and I said after last run this horse can go on to better races. His only problem is the wide barrier draw but they can lead if they need to and he’ll be very hard to beat. My Tagoson is undefeated at the track and has won his only start at the distance. He won from this barrier last start with Bowman aboard and he keeps the ride. I really see him as the only danger to the favourite. Unfortunately the $2.50 for Don’t Give A Damn is all but gone now, with $.80 the best we’re getting.
TIP: Don’t Give A Damn
Race 2
Interested in the two Snowden runners here in SPIN and MUNICH. Spin ran home well to finish 4th on debut behind Performer, and I think we’ll find that race turns out to be a good form race. Leading into the race he trialled nicely behind the same horse, so from the inside barrier here he looks a big chance to go close. Munich is on debut with two trials under the belt. Hugh Bowman takes the ride which is a good lead and from barrier 3 he will get a god run throughout. LEGEND OF CONDOR won a trial in impressive fashion and is a live chance on debut here. He will jump straight to the front and give them something to chase, while THE ENZO and REBUKES have also trialled well.
TIP: Munich
Race 3
Listed race for the three-year-old fillies here and I have to take on REGIMEN with the big weight here. She’s won three of her four career starts but carries 59kg, which is 4kg more than any other runner in the race. That’s enough for me to look elsewhere. SWEET DEAL drops back from Group 1 races behind Alizee and finds a much more suitable race here. Drops back to the 1400m after failing to run out the mile last start, so with the good draw and Craig Williams booked to ride she should go close. Interested in backing WORKDRINKS who was well supported last start when finishing 2nd to Demerara. I think that’s another formline that can be followed as Demerara looks a smart type. Workdrinks gets the blinkers on for the first time here so happy to have her on top.
TIP: Workdrinks
Race 4
PUMPKIN PIE has been well backed to win here and she’s the class runner of the field so it’s no surprise. She was sound first up behind Tango Rain and then again behind Isorich last start without much room in the straight. Simply outclassed behind In Her Time Last start but this is an enormous drop back in grade for her. Draws ideally in barrier 2 and Bowman takes over from Jay Ford for the ride today so she really should go close. I’m going to side with SUNCRAZE though. He trotted in two starts ago over 1400m and backed that up with a solid enough win back to 1200m last start. The horse that ran 2nd was Don’t Give A Damn, who came out and won his next start by 6L and will likely win Race 1 today. Back up to 11400m now, has won a trial since that last win and he goes on top. Include PUZZLING WONDER at big odds.
TIP: Suncraze
Race 5
Chris Waller looks to have a mortgage on this race and I think it’s pretty well a two horse race between INVINCIBELLA and OKLAHOMA GIRL here. Invincibella resumed with a good win over 1300m and now steps up to 1600m. She’s run 2nd in all three starts when second up so there’s nothing wrong with her form in that respect. Bowman can’t ride the light weight so Tim Clark takes the ride and from the good draw she looks a good winning chance once again. OKLAHOMA GIRL resumed with a terrific run over 1400m behind Wayanka and Interlocuter. That form has held up with Interlocuter since winning again easily. She’s undefeated over 1600m and generally improves second up so with Kerrin McEvoy booked for the ride, the $7 looks a nice each way price. Having a big each way bet on Oklahoma Girl but no knock on Invincibella.
TIP: Oklahoma Girl EW (Best Value)
Race 6
Surely all BIG DUKE has to do is repeat his performance in The Metropolitan last start to win this. He had the three lead-up runs to the Group 1 before finally showing his best form (as predicted) when it mattered, and he’s only going to improve the further he gets into his prep. The step up to 2600m works in his favour and from barrier 2 we can probably expect him to be a touch more forward in the run. Think he’s a huge chance here and I struggle to see anything standing out to beat him. AUVRAY is flying and won a Group 3 over 2400m last start. He can certainly run well again here at each way odds. LIBRAN was out the gate in betting last start and ran accordingly. If he were to reproduce similar to what he did two starts ago he’d probably win this. He’s won over this distance so keep an eye on the market. If they back him it will be a good indication that he’ll go close today.
TIP: Big Duke
Race 7
If IN HER TIME gets a clean run in the race and can find cover from barrier 9, I think she’s close to a moral here. She resumed from a spell with a big win in the Premiere Stakes, defeating four Everest runners in the process. I think if she had got a run in the Everest she’d have been very competitive, so this Listed race should be well within reach for her. She should be a Group 1 winner already, she’s got a good second up record and is undefeated at the track so I’m happy to unload at the $2.60 on offer. IMPENDING resumes for the first time since winning at Group 1 level. There’s really no knowing how he’s going to perform first up. BALL OF MSUCLE and TAKEDOWN both finished behind In her Time last start and I can’t see them turning that around. WASHINGTON HEIGHTS and KAEPERNICK others to include.
TIP: In Her Time (Best Bet)
Race 8 - The Everest
See our full runner-by-runner preview of The Everest here!
Race 9
Looks a nice race for HAPPY CLAPPER but at $1.60-$1.70 I can’t be backing him. He’s been faultless this prep, with a big win first up followed by an admirable performance behind Winx. He then won the Epsom in good style last start and there’s no reason he can’t go on with it here from the inside barrier. That should see him box seat and get the run of the race once again, so with all things being equal he looks your winner. I can’t take $1.60 though for a horse that’s only placed once from four starts over 2000m. Expect a good run from STAR EXHIBIT who will be rock hard fit now and comes off a good run behind Jon Snow. MACKINTOSH has won at the distance but he was comfortably held last start in a race that he was well suited in so happy to pass on him today.
TIP: Happy Clapper
Race 10
Looks a nice race for MACHINEGUN JUBS first up from a spell here. She’s never missed the top two from four starts when first up from a spell and she’s finished top two in both starts at the distance. Has form behind the likes of Badajoz and Bonny O’Reilly which should see her very competitive in a race like this. Drawn well and looks a nice each way bet to finish the day. There’s nothing wrong with the form of LATIN BOY who has put together four wins on the bounce. He draws the carpark which is his biggest issue but the Richard Freedman stable is flying so expect him to run well once again. PICK ME UP can go well first up from the inside barrier.
TIP: Machinegun Jubs EW
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
