Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Caulfield on Saturday, September 23rd.
Caulfield hosts a nine-race card featuring the Group 3 MRC Foundation Cup, Group 3 Ladbrokes Odds Boost Stakes and Listed Testa Rossa Stakes.
The track is currently rated a Good 3 but will likely start a Good 4. There is a drop of rain predicted which should have the track in perfect condition, but there are some strong winds also forecast for the early races.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. You can also check out our Golden Rose Day Preview & Betting Tips here and our Belmont Racing Preview & Tips here!
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In the first episode of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the 2017 Golden Rose Stakes Day and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, September 23rd! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 4 I Did It Again
Best Value: Race 7 Samovare
Race 1
Extremely competitive race to start the day here and I won’t be betting big here at all. Think we have to stick with SANADAAT after she was on the receiving end of a poor ride last start when Duffy handed up his position outside the leader to Shoals, which then forced her to overrace and allowed Shoals to build momentum and win. We can forgive her for that and look back to her first up win and also remember Hayes was quite keen on her chances last start and going forward to the Thousand Guineas. Up to 1400m should suit, Duffy is replaced by Luke Nolen, and I think she’ll roll forward from the wide barrier. $4.50 is about as low as you’d want to go in a deep race. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a long-priced winner either. I’LL HAVE A BIT was a touch unlucky last start and should be suited third up over 1400m here. She’s a big price at $21. PURE SCOT was last and literally off the screen at the 100m mark behind Shoals last start but hit the line really nicely. She may be looking for even further but 1400m suits. HAPUKA ran very nicely on debut and can measure up here with that experience under her belt. ALOISIA obviously has a stack of ability. She ran 2nd in the Group 1 JJ Atkins Stakes in the winter and resumes here. She’s on an Oaks path so could find today a touch sharp over 1400m. LEATHER’N’LACE comes to town after two solid wins on the provincials, which is a method Darren Weir uses regularly. BLONDIE led before running 2nd to Shoals last start. Favoured by the track that day and it remains to be seen how much effect the wind has on the leaders in the early races. BANISH another to include out of the Shoals race – caught wide and still finished off nicely.
TIP: Sanadaat / I’ll Have A Bit EW
Race 2
ESHTIRAAK looks a really nice bet here at the $3.30 mark. We were on last start when it just couldn’t quite run down Masculino at the Valley when leaders were very much favoured. They cleared out from 3rd and I think stepping up to the mile here ticks a lot of boxes. Oliver retains the ride, draws perfectly, comes out of a very strong race two starts ago behind Dracarys and Gold Standard, and Tom Dabernig labelled him the stable’s best chance all day. CLIFF’S EDGE was a reasonable run last start behind Royal Symphony after being caught wide. Before that he beat nothing in Adelaide. Much better drawn here but keen to take him on. SUNQUEST was a good run last start once again, which backed up his big run two starts ago. Draw is slightly tricky I think, he’ll get a fair way back in the field on the rail. I think the best value in the race is PRES DE TOI at $34. He’s still a maiden but his last two runs have been absolutely luckless when horribly held up on both occasions. The stable is flying at the minute and have had a few big-price city winners in recent weeks, and Damian Lane has ridden most of them so his booking is certainly encouraging. A number of these other horses all won well last start but all take a big step up in class here. Eshtiraak the clear lass runner and betting accordingly.
TIP: Eshtiraak / Pres De Toi EW
Race 3
This race has a very long tail with a lot of deadwood. It may sound a bit repetitive with these Hayes runners but SIN TO WIN profiles perfectly for this race. Comes out of two good enough form races, gets up to 1800m third up from a spell with blinkers fitted for the first time. Draws ideally in barrier 6 and really should be going very close at $3.50. EBEDIYIN was a great winner at good odds last start but he has a few negatives to overcome today. The track is set to be very firm, which is the reason Weir highlighted for his poor first up performance. He draws awkwardly in 14 as opposed to 3 last start, rises slightly in weight and goes from Damian Lane to Ben Allen. Which is all why we’re getting a decent price again today but I’ll be taking him on. I think this horse down the bottom TABLE OF WISDOM can run a race if he gets a start. He’s had just the four career starts but he’s never finished outside the top two. First up he only ran in a BM64 at Geelong, but I’d suggest there’s plenty of improvement in him coming into today and when McEvoy brings these runners to city races you have to take notice. The draw does hurt though. GOODWILL is another with a poor draw but can run into a place, just as he did first up. Oliver takes over from Melham today and he did win second up last prep so keep him safe. THUNDER TEDDINGTON, ANAHEIM, ELECTRIC FUSION and CARRAIG AMOUR all others to include.
TIP: Sin To Win / Table Of Wisdom EW
Race 4
One of the best bets of the day here in I DID IT AGAIN, as highlighted on the podcast. This was a big spruik horse leading into his debut, when he was backed off the map and won accordingly. He had things go against him that day as he was given no peace when leading, and he defeated BANDIPUR and Aljawzaa. That’s great form for this race. They put him straight away in order to set him for the Guineas, but word is they’re keeping him for the sprint races so expect him to be forward enough to win today. He meets Bandipur again today, who went and won a listed race in Adelaide at his next start following his loss to I Did It Again, so the form is hot. Draws poorly here but will be thereabouts at the finish. SUPERHARD has been super impressive in two career starts to date, winning both in good style. They said he was stakes class and there’s no reason he can’t give this a good shake once again from the inside gate. COUNTERPLAY looks the best value in the race. Won its first two races in Adelaide stylishly and resumed with a runner-up finish, but I’d think that was just to blow the cobwebs out before coming here. Stokes sending a runner over definitely raises eyebrows at big odds. ARCTIC ANGEL and WILLIAM THOMAS included.
TIP: I Did It Again (Best Bet)
Race 5
Not an overly good race this one and one I’ll be cautious betting into. REVOLVING DOOR has only really failed once this prep and he pulled up with a legitimate excuse that day with an irregular heart rhythm. He’s since bounced back to run 3rd behind Brave Smash, beaten 1L. Brave Smash is going to The Everest and should be winning Race 6, so the form is hot. Not entirely sure Revolving Door gets 1400m, but he will get every chance from barrier 6 today. I think the best betting option in the race is backing DUKE OF BRUNSWICK each way at the $7 on offer. He went terrible last start but goes from Chris Caserta to Damien Oliver here, draws absolutely perfectly in barrier 5 and has placed in five of his six runs over the track and distance. Think he’s a pretty safe each way bet. HERE TO THERE is running consistently well with two wins backed up by a solid 4th last start. He’ll get a nice run from the gate and be thereabouts. HE OR SHE is the class runner and should improve but is probably still looking for further. SO SI BON comes up a short enough price here. If you back this horse regularly you’ve already gone broke and he can win without me. Backing Duke Of Brunswick with a saver on Revolving Door.
TIP: Duke Of Brunswick EW
Race 6
It was announced this week that BRAVE SMASH had been chosen as the ATC’s horse for The Everest, and given they’re talking about this horse as a genuine top 3 chance in the race, I’d expect him to win this and win it pretty well. I reckon the ATC would be slightly concerned if their horse was losing a Listed race (and not a very strong one either) on route to the big race. I thought his win at the Valley last start was a pass mark. He didn’t pull away from them but he sat three-wide on the speed, which isn’t how he’s best ridden. They’ll take a sit today and let him finish off from a bit further back, but I’d be very surprised if he lost this. KEEN ARRAY is ready to go close. His run last start was very good after settling a mile back from the wide barrier. He had to make a big run out wide and got within 1.75L at the finish. He’s undefeated from three starts at this track and distance and draws barrier 1 here, so he’ll be the one to test Brave Smash and the $2.45 place bet looks a nice bet. I think MALIBU STYLE can put in a much better effort than what we saw first up when I thought he was a bit disappointing. Second up is when he tends to fire, with three wins and two placings from six starts. Draws perfectly to get a nice run up on the speed and he can run into a placing at $14. BONS AWAY has bolted in at his past three starts. Takes a big step up in class here but he deserves his chance. I think Brave Smash wins, but if you’re not wanting to take the $1.80 then the $2.45 for Keen Array to place and the $3.40 for Malibu Style to place are nice options.
TIP: Brave Smash
Race 7
Hardest race of the day with as many as nine or ten chances. I’ve narrowed it down to three or four main chances. I’m definitely going to be on SAMOVARE who has been crying out for 2000m. Thought her win last start was very impressive and with the step up in distance here I think she can give this a real shake. The query with her is that Damien Oliver jumps off to ride SIR ISAAC NEWTON. We’re getting $9 about her though and that’s a good enough price. AMELIE’S STAR is another mare I want to back. She went to the line under a stranglehold last weekend when we were on her and should have been right in the finish. She steps up in trip to 2000m now on the quick back-up, Damian Lane sticks with her and if she can overcome her sticky draw she’ll be in the finish. BIG DUKE should be ready to win now. He was given no hope second up when they took him back to last and set him an impossible task, and the market knew that before the race. Up to 2000m now, third up from a spell and the senior rider takes over from the apprentice. Outside of those I think we’ll see BOOM TIME improve significantly with the good barrier draw and the step up to 2000m. SIR ISAAC NEWTON is a very interesting runner given Ollie rides him instead of Samovare, who he has ridden in her past three starts. ABBEY MARIE and STAMPEDE will have admirers but at the prices I’ll be taking them on today. Backing Amelie’s Star and Samovare with a saver on Big Duke.
TIP: Amelie’s Star / Samovare EW (Best Value)
Race 8
Race of the day for mine. If you backed FUHRYK first up like most of Australia did, then you have to back her again here I think. She was given absolutely no hope by Williams first up when she was backed as if she was unbeatable. David Hayes said it wasn’t anything to do with the horse, it was all to do with the ride, so I’m prepared to forgive her for that failure and butter up at the $5.50 available today. She’s undefeated second up and has five wins from eight starts at the distance. Draws beautifully, Mertens is a jockey booking I like, happy to back her again. I think RAVI is clearly the biggest danger. Her first up win in Sydney was outstanding and when the Snowdens send their horses to Melbourne you have to take notice. The race she won last start was strong and she’s got a good second up record, Dwayne Dunn booked to ride from barrier five, she ticks plenty of boxes. I gave a big push for LEGLESS VEUVE on the podcast as the big value in the race at $21, but that was before we knew she was wearing bar plates. Now that we know that info, I’ll let her go around. My reason behind thinking she was value was the fact she’s won two from three first up, including first up last prep, and has a good record at both the track and distance. SAVANNAH AMOUR was the other at value at $15. She was very good when winning second up back on to a firm track with a soft run. She goes well at the track and distance and will once again get a firm track. The wide barrier is the big negative today but I still think she’s slightly over the odds. KENEDNA is first up since her Oaks campaign but she’s undefeated at the distance and could run a big race at big odds. Taking on PROMPT RESPONSE and MISSROCK. Backing Fuhryk hard, saving on Ravi, something small Savannah Amour.
TIP: Fuhryk / Savannah Amour EW
Race 9
JAMAICAN RAIN has been absolutely smashed in early betting here, $4.20 into $2.75. The horse comes off two hugely impressive wins leading into this. First up she bolted in at Sale, winning by 3.75L, and then went to Adelaide and trotted in by 6.5L. The obvious query is that she comes to a decent Saturday race at Caulfield on what will be a firm track, but I think the fact that Jamie Mott is riding at 54kg is a massive hint. He normally rides at about 56kg+, so if he’s wasting to get down to 54kg just for this horse then the stable must think it’s a moral. PETITION was disappointing first up over 1300m as the odds-on favourite. Steps up to 1400m second up here which will suit, but she may be looking for even further. I think we could see SEA THE SPARKLE bounce back after a really poor effort last start. Drops back to 1400m, down to 52.5kg and will be ridden much quieter from the wide barrier. She might need a wet track though. MERRIEST has won two from three when second up so expect improvement from her, PRINCESS OF QUEENS thereabouts.
TIP: Jamaican Rain
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
