Welcome to our horse racing preview of Warwick Farm on Wednesday 6th September, which hosts an eight-race card. The track is currently rated a Good 3 with the rail out 3m. There's no rain predicted so we'll be on a Good 3 for the entire meeting, which could mean those on speed may be favoured.
We have betting tips and comments on every race below.
WARWICK FARM RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Royal Navy (Best Bet)
Best Value: Cosmic Cameo EW (Best Value)
Race 1
CUBA obviously brings the strongest form to the race and gets the blinkers applied for the first time here so from the good draw expect him to be hard to beat. In saying that, I'm pretty happy to take him on here. I'll be backing LONGMU and saving on AONAIR. Longmu resumed at Kembla Grange where he ran 2nd to Molten, beaten 0.4L, with a horse called Masterati back in 3rd. Both of those horses (Molten and Masterati) have since won their next start, so the form looks pretty reasonable. Molten beat the promising Floki at Newcastle yesterday in BM65 company, so although the form is only on the provincials, I think it can be followed. Snowdens wouldn't bring him to the city if he wasn't up to it. Aonair resumes from a short break after running 3rd at his first two starts. He's been kept up to his work with a trial leading into this and has blinkers on for the first time here. Bowman rides for Waller and he looks a decent chance in a relatively thin race. Taking $4.40 for Longmu and saving on Aonair at $4.75.
TIP: Longmu
Race 2
Five of the seven runners are on debut here so it's a hard race to be confident betting into. It's also difficult in that Waller has three runners in the race, and while you'd think Bowman would ride the top stable elect, two of the three runners aren't in his weight range. So betting will play a key role here. In any case, I'm interested in READYCATGO here at $8. She trialled nicely behind the likes of Piracy (undefeated this prep) and Jorda (3rd behind Pariah first up) leading into her debut. In that debut she was slow away and then hampered shortly after, which made it very difficult for her to get into the race. Songlike was the winner of that race and he's a horse with some ability, so I think she's worth another chance here, especially with McEvoy replacing Jay Ford. FRESH START will be up on the speed and Waterhouse will have it ready to run well. OMBUDSMAN for Waller/Bowman has obvious claims.
TIP: Readycatgo EW
Race 3
Seriously low race. $2.20 for ALLUVION sums it up. She is the only horse that brings Saturday form to the race and she'll be up on speed in the small field, but it's hard to take those odds about her. I'll be siding with CANBERRA for Waller/Bowman. She put two wins together at Kembla Grange before being murdered last start at Newcastle Beaumont when finishing 2nd. She strikes a very, very thin midweek race here and I'd rather the $4.20 about her than the shorts about Alluvion. I thought MARABEL was the value at $7.50. Her first up runs are always pretty ordinary but she's undefeated second up, which suggests to me she could run a big race here with the low weight. Canberra on top but I'll also be backing Marabel.
TIP: Canberra
Race 4
Pretty keen on a couple here. The first is REBEL MISS at the $2.90 mark. She comes out of two strong form races behind Nictock and Cudabeen, the latest of which she had genuine excuses after being caught three-wide without cover, but still managed to finish 4th. Drawn better in barrier 5 today on her home track and should be able to bounce back. I think COSMIC CAMEO at $51 is a huge price. He's done absolutely nothing in three runs this prep, but he never does anything in his first two runs back from a spell, and he never does anything on heavy ground. So we can basically pen every start he's had this prep, and based on his good trial win leading into this race, the horse could be ready to run a race here. He's won two from four over this track and distance, draws well, has an in-form jockey on board with a nice claim, and gets back on to a rock-hard surface. Definitely having something each way with Centrebet offering $51 and $11 for the place. RELISE POTENTIAL and PHOEBE'S LASS others to include.
TIP: Rebel Miss / Cosmic Cameo EW (Best Value)
Race 5
Difficult race to assess. JESSAMIN was an impressive winner on debut back in November last year but hasn't returned to the track since, except for one trial leading into her first up run today. She looks to have nice ability but from what we've seen from her in her lone race and her recent trial, she will likely settle off the pace from barrier 7 and it's hard to know how forward she is and how she has returned from such a long time off. INTRINSIC is the horse that will catch the attention with Bowman riding for Kris Lees. Bowman's had three rides for Lees this season, resulting in a win and a 3rd. The horse itself was desperately unlucky not to remain undefeated in her debut campaign. She's had three months off but has trialled twice leading into this and all things add up to her running a big race today. MEMENTO is another that comes into this first up with two trials under the belt. Yet to win a race but did run 3rd in Group 3 company behind Tulip last prep so the ability is there. ACQUME, VELLOR, BELLA SUCCESS and COULD YOU BE LOVED all come off provincial wins and are hard to line up. Intrinsic is shrort enough at $2.60 but goes on top.
TIP: Intrinsic
Race 6
Another particularly ordinary race for the stayers over 2200m. SOCIAL ELEMENT comes up favourite for Waterhouse/Bott after a maiden win over 2000m at Newcastle Beaumont. The fact it's a $3.50 favourite here tells you all you need to know about the race. To his credit, things didn't go right at all during the run and he still stuck on well to win, but I don't know how confident you can be following that form. QUEEN OF HEIGHTS started $2.60 favourite last start but was posted wide, went forward to lead mid-race and then dropped out in the straight. Draws wide again here so expect a very conservative ride, but Bowman at least sticks with her and on her previous form she can bounce back. I'm with READY FOR SUCCESS who enjoyed the run of the race last start and just missed out by a nose over this track and distance. Will get a similar run today from barrier 1 and gets in 1kg lighter today, so there's no reason he can't be in the finish at $7. The other horse I'll be backing is EXOTERIC who looks to be improving with every run. This is now his fifth run in Australia and his fourth run for the campaign. Has to carry a big weight but should enjoy a good run and really should be coming good soon. Double figure odds available. DYLAN'S ROMANCE and BON EQUUS others to throw in.
TIP: Ready For Success EW / Exoteric EW
Race 7
REGENT comes up awfully short here but it's the least exposed horse in the race and profiles well. On debut he beat a relatively good horse in Envy Of All, before running 2.4L behind Taking Aim in Group 3 company on the Gold Coast. Barrier 10 is a bit tricky and although I think it's a leading chance, I'm not keen to play at the price. I am keen to play at the price of IT'S A SHAMOZZLE, however, who I think is well over the odds at $34. This horse comes into this race first up from a spell, and from six pevious first up runs he has won three and placed in two others. Has a good record at the distance, won over this distance first up last prep carrying 60kg, so with the good draw here and similar conditions I think he can certainly run a good race. CHAVISH was in good form before failing over 1400m last start. Freshened up and back to 1300m is a positive move so at $17 I think he can bounce back. SCREAMAAR is one to follow going forward over further. Regent top pick, but I'll be backing It's A Shamozzle. Something small on Chavish.
TIP: Regent / It's A Shamozzle EW
Race 8
Pretty keen on two here. The first is ROYAL NAVY who looks one of the better bets on the card. This horse was really well supported early in betting first up but as the race drew closer he blew a gale in the market. His first up form isn't great but he tends to improve second up, as we saw last prep. He went on to beat The Pharaoh last prep over 1400m which is great form for a midweek race like this. The step up to the mile should suit second up, McEvoy on for Team Snowden, draws well and should be very hard to beat here at $2.90. ARIGOLD looks the value in the race at $14. Comes out of a strong form race two starts ago behind Up 'N' Rolling, and then last start was just nosed out by Sir Barb over this track and distance. Draws gate 1 again and Tim Clark replaces the apprentice Adkins. Should go well. ART OF EXCELLENCE has been very well backed this morning after a 5L win first up over 1400m at Goulburn. Has a great second up record without winning and tackles the mile for the first time here. This is much harder than anything he's faced previously but he will burn across from barrier 14 and be hard to run down. LITTLE MISS BROWN can bounce back from cardiac arrhythmia last start.
TIP: Royal Navy (Best Bet) / Arigold EW
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