Seven races to look forward to today from Warwick Farm, where we start off with a couple of slow races but end with some very nice horses going around. The track is currently rated a Good 3 with a perfect weather forecast and the rail in the True position for the entire circuit.
We have betting tips and comments below for all seven races and we have also Sandown betting tips meet for Wednesday here.
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Warwick Farm Racing Tips for Wednesday, August 23rd
Race 1
This is a horrible race to be betting into to start the day. PANDEMONIUM comes up $2.10 favourite after a 3.3L win at Kembla Grange last start. Her time over the 1400m was quicker than SEVERENCE's time for his 1400m win at Kembla last month, and the key factors in favour of Pandemonium here are barrier 1 and the track being very firm. We're likely to be on a Good 3, which could mean it's hard to make ground, and we know the tactics Waterhouse will want from barrier 1 - lead at all costs! The big unknown is PRIDE OF DARCI who was heavily backed on debut at Taree and trotted in to win easily. The time was nothing special and it was a Taree maiden, so the step up to midweek city company must be somewhat of a query. CAMPAIGN looks over the odds given he blew the start at Kembla when finishing 3rd behind Pandemonium last start. He was beaten 3.8L but as mentioned, he blew the start and gets a 4kg weight swing here. $13 looks over the odds. ST VADUZ comes up from Melbourne for the Hayes/Dabernig stable which is an interesting move. Comes out of a race behind a very smart horse in Anchor Bid so he's not the worst here. AUGUSTUS can box seat from the good barrier with Bowman on board and can't be discounted. I think Pandemonium is the one they have to beat here but I couldn't touch $2.10. If anything I'd have something small each way on Campaign.
TIP: Campaign EW
Race 2
Another tough race to get excited about. The only horses I'm interested in here are the Waller horses. QUEEN OF HEIGHTS comes up favourite with Bowman on board after a good run last start More Moet. Made a mid-race move on that occasion and was only run down late to be beaten half-a-length, so with Bowman taking over today and a position up on the speed, she should be tough to beat. I'm interested in PRESSCOTT at the $4.60 though. He's had three runs in Melbourne and has had no luck on any occasion. Two starts ago he went to the line untested, and last start was held up at the 300m mark before finishing 5th behind Eureka Street and Spanish Reef, which I actually think is a decent form race. He normally takes a few runs to come good, so fourth up here, back in Sydney, McEvoy on board, ticks a few boxes. Just needs to be able to make ground from the back. The other Waller horse is EXOTERIC who I think can improve sharply today. Has done absolutely nothing in three starts in Australia so far, but there's been contributing factors. On his Aussie debut he struck a heavy track and was sent for a spell immediately after that. And while he's not done anything in his two starts back this prep, both have been well short of his best distance. All three of his wins have come over 2000m-2050m, so 1250m and 1500m are hardly ideal. Steps out sharply now to 2200m so finally gets a distance that suits, and he's won his only previous start when third up from a spell. Carries a big weight but at $21 I think we'll see him improve today and this field is by no means made up of stars. $4.70 the place appeals.
TIP: Presscott / Exoteric EW
Race 3
Now this is a good race. DISSOLUTION ran 2nd in a Group 3 behind Taking Aim at the end of last prep after being transferred to the Hawkes stable. Resumes now on the back of a trial behind Spieth and he should be able to measure up here, though I don't think he'll be fully wound up. SMARTEDGE is a horse I struggle to price in this field. He had a big spruik on him leading into his debut when he was rolled as the odds on favourite at Newcastle, but that race has turned out to be a hot form race with the winner going on to win in city grade, and the 3rd horse winning its next two starts. Last start Smartedge was caught three-wide without cover the entire race before dropping out, but once again the winner of that race (Gold Standard) has gone on to run 2nd in Saturday city grade. McEvoy takes the ride here and the blinkers go on for the first time. AL MAH HAHA debuted in a very strong form race, beaten 2L, and the 2nd horse in that race was Gold Standard. So we can tie that form in. He then went on to run 2nd last start when he was meant to be ridden forward but instead settled last. Ran on strongly but just missed out by a nose. Down 2kg in weight here, blinkers on first time, and Bowman takes over from Collett which is an enormous jockey change. COOK STRAIGHT and CEDARWOOD can go well on debut. Really good race, very hard to split Al Mah Haha and Smartedge but prepared to give Smartedge one more chance.
TIP: Smartedge
Race 4
NICTOK is a winner of five from six races, the most recent of which was at Canterbury in similar grade to this. Goes up 3kg for that win and I think the $2.20 is a price I'm willing to take on today. There's two that stand out for me as a bit of value and we can play on both. The first is MIXED BLOSSOM at $10. This horse has won three from four when first up from a spell, all three of which were over this distance. From barrier 1 she will be right up on the speed and with a 5kg swing on Nictok I think she can give this a real crack at double figure odds. The second horse I like is WING SNIPPER at $15. I backed this horse first up at Scone due to its terrific first up record, but it went terrible. But it did draw poorly, had a 3kg apprentice on and struck a Soft track. The fact it now comes to midweek city grade straight after that race, with Blake Shinn replacing the apprentice, a firm track and second up from a spell (won two from three when second up) is a very positive sign. Backing both for a value result.
TIP: Mixed Blossom / Wing Snipper EW (Best Value)
Race 5
FORTENSKY deserves to be favourite here and the jockey change of Bowman for Shinn is a positive one, but once again there's two other horses that I'm quite interested in backing to beat the favourite. The first is KOKOPU who is absolutely flying since joining the new stable. He's won his past two races by 3.6L and 5L respectively, and the times haven't been bad at all considering they were at Dubbo and Kembla. I really think he can measure up here and he gets both a good jockey booking and a good barrier so he gets his chance. There's $6 available and I think that's a great each way bet. I think the value could be SIR BARB who put two wins together at Goulburn earlier this prep, before being beaten 3.5L by Special Missile. That's turned out to be a good form race, and he showed that by running 2nd last start over this track and distance. The concern is he'll settle at the back of the field, but he's going well and can feature in the finish at $9.50.
TIP: Kokopu / Sir Barb EW
Race 6
RED IS THE ROSE may turn out to be the best horse in the race heading towards the Spring, but coming into this first up over 1200m without a trial is a big query, especially given she's probably going to get over 1600m and beyond this prep. You always have to respect this stable bringing horses to Sydney, and the $6.50 is a nice price for a horse that's run within 2L of Group 1 winner I Am A Star, but I'll purely be backing her as a saver bet. I AM SERIOUS is the one I want to be on here on debut for the Waller stable. She's undefeated in the country and all three wins were dominant. This is a step up from that, but she has trialled nicely on two occasions leading into this. In the first trial she beat Assimilate and the second trial she ran 2nd to Takedown. That trial form for a midweek race like this is outstanding. Jay Ford is an interesting booking for Waller given his lightweight rider is normally Kerrin McEvoy, but he may have already been committed to the other horse. Happy to take $3.60 for I Am Serious. The value could be HAMMOND LANE, who has finished in the top two on four occasions from five first up runs. Has a good record at the distance and a positive jockey booking with Corey Brown. $27 looks way over the odds. MY KIND at $41 is the blowout.
TIP: I Am Serious / Hammond Lane EW
Race 7
Really keen on AWOKE here at $3.80. She's returned in great order this prep with a win first up followed by a narrow runner up finish behind Philosophy who I think is a good horse. Her run last start put to rest any fears I had about firm tracks with her. Drops from Saturday grade to midweek grade here and has won a trial since that last run, Bowman gets back on and she looks very hard to beat in this field. Hardest to beat is clearly ROYAL NAVY for the Snowden stable, and she's attracted plenty of early market support. She actually beat Awoke by about 6L last prep, but that was when Awoke was cooked and nowhere near the form she's in this prep. Both of Royal Navy's wins have come over this distance, but she hasn't won first up before so I just wonder whether she will need this run to make her spot on for next start. Having said that, she's trialled twice leading into this so should be fairly forward. Draws very well in barrier 3 and whenever McEvoy rides for the Snowdens you must take notice, especially when the money comes! Amazingly, there is still $4.75 available with Bet365 for Royal Navy, while everywhere else is about $3.70-$3.90. I have already gone heavily on Awoke at $3.80 with a saver on Royal Navy at $4.75, and I don't see anything outside those two winning this so that's my play of the day and best bet.
TIP: Awoke (Best Bet)
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