The final round of the 2017 AFL season has arrived and surprisingly there are still plenty of interesting games to keep us entertained all weekend! Several of the upcoming matches have finals implications including the order of the top four and whether teams make the finals at all. Let's take a look as I preview and offer my AFL Round 23 betting tips!
2017 AFL Round 23 Betting Tips
Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, August 25th at 7:50pm AEST)
The Hawks farewell champion Luke Hodge on Friday night and unless there is a miracle over the weekend, the Bulldogs will be missing the finals and therefore saying goodbye to Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd. No doubt it will be a fiercely contested and emotional final Friday night footy of the regular 2017 AFL season!
The Hawks should be favourites here. It's perhaps understandable that they aren't given how poor they played against the Blues last week, but the Dogs haven't been playing great football themselves. Hawthorn also have a great record against the Dogs (apart from last year's final) and I don't think playing at Etihad will worry them too much. I'm not going to try and build up some sort of 'Luke Hodge' factor here, but you have to assume the effort will be far stronger than it was last week. Yes, the Bulldogs likely have their own champions to say goodbye to, but the Hawks specifically requested this Friday night slot and have been building up to this game knowing the entire time this would very likely be their last game of the season. The Dogs, meanwhile, have zero confidence after their finals chances were destroyed by another mediocre performance last week. They will keep saying that they just have to win this and let the other games play out and if they get lucky, they will make the finals, but I think it's more likely they have one eye on the pre-season now. The Dogs struggle to score meaningful goals, have a depleted and out of form forward line and the Hawks are a better defensive team. Get on Hawthorn at this price.
Tip: Hawthorn to win Hd-Hd - $2.08 at CrownBet (3.5 units)
Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, August 26th at 1:45pm AEST)
Although quite likely, the Demons aren't yet a certainty to make the finals. If they want to lock up a spot in the top 8 for the first time since 2006, destiny is in their hands and that means coming out and beating the Magpies on Saturday afternoon.
The Demons have won the last two against the Pies, including their thrilling four-point win back in Round 12 of this season. The Demons have been playing solid football and I think they will finish the season with a win. The Pies are now without Jordan De Goey, Daniel Wells, Levi Greenwood, Travis Varcoe and Scott Pendlebury which is a lot of their attacking power. Taylor Adams, meanwhile, is in doubt after copping multiple head whacks in last week's game. They fortunately get Brodie Grundy back in this week which will be key against Max Gawn, but the Dees are a better side this year even with the Magpies at full strength. Taking the Demons by the margin, but would consider the quite small line if we get a sniff of any Adams news.
Tip: Melbourne by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes (2 units)
Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday, August 26th at 2:10pm AEST)
The battle for the wooden spoon sees the Demons and Lions stuck with the following conundrum - win and finish as high as 15th and miss out on one of the top three picks in the draft; lose and secure the number one pick in the draft.
"Tanking" will no doubt be talked about in the lead up to this game, but I think one of these teams is superior at the moment and that's the way this one would have played out regardless of draft implications. The Lions should win this. Their midfield is one of the most underrated in the comp, with Dayne Zorko, Dayne Beams and Tom Rockliff all players who could be close to the best player at a number of AFL clubs. They have all been able to contribute to the scoreboard this season and have helped their team average 95 points in the last five. The only chance the Roos have is if their forwards like Ben Brown really get a hold of Brisbane, but I can't see that happening at the Gabba. I won't be at all suggesting North Melbourne will tank, but I know Brisbane's attitude towards this game and the end of the season in general has been very positive. Happy to take the Lions at this relatively small line.
Tip: Brisbane at the line (-12.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, August 26th at 4:35pm AEST)
They may be at opposite ends of the ladder, but both the Swans and Blues are brimming with confidence after big victories last week. Will the Swans continue their hot form or can the Blues claim one more scalp before the 2017 AFL season is over?
While the Blues can clearly play some solid football at their best, defeating the Hawks won't be quite as big a feat compared to the task they are faced with the Swans at the SCG on Saturday. If Sydney had any doubters in regard to their premiership credentials, that all changed when they managed a rousing victory over the Crows in Adelaide last Friday night. Sydney will easily defeat the Blues, but I don't like the look of the almost ten-goal line. I actually lean towards Carlton being able to keep it close enough to cover that line, but opting to just skip this one.
Tip: No Bet.
Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants (Saturday, August 26th at 7:25pm AEST)
One of the most intriguing games of the final round is no doubt when the GWS Giants travel down to Simonds Stadium to take on the Cats.
Geelong's premiership chances took a real hit when Joel Selwood was sidelined with an ankle injury and this will be the biggest test to see whether they are still a September threat. They get Mitch Duncan and Tom Hawkins back this week and have the home ground advantage, but this is going to be tough. The Cats were gallant in victory over Richmond at Simonds with their stars out and have yet to lose to the Giants at the stadium. The last time the two teams met was in Round 15 in a match at Spotless Stadium which ended up in a draw. We have been shown time and time again to not underestimate the Cats at home, but I think the Giants are value here. They are closer to their best 22 than the last time the two teams met and their midfield is in redhot form. I think Selwood will be sorely missed against the best clearance side in the comp. Can't wait to watch this one. Will be having a small bet on the Giants to win a competitive game.
Tip: GWS Giants by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.60 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Port Adelaide Power vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, August 26th at 7:10 ACST)
Port Adelaide locked up their spot in the finals last week and depending on this game and some other results, could secure a home final or even a double chance by finishing in the top four.
I think it's safe to say the Suns have checked out and are ready to focus on next year. We all know the coaching situation and not to mention the Gary Ablett fiasco. They showed glimmers of solid football against the Bombers last week, but ultimately there just isn't enough to play for. The Suns are ranked 16th for average scoring and are coming up against the second-highest scoring team in the comp on their home turf. You would be a brave punter to give the Suns a chance here. It's a massive line, but with the Suns having nothing to play for, I think the Power can capitalise and really put a show on for their fans at Adelaide Oval. It might not end up being as big a margin as the 72-point smashing in China, but happy to have a small play on the Power to cover.
Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-49.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Essendon Bombers vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, August 27th at 1:10pm AEST)
The final Sunday of the regular AFL season for 2017 sees the Bombers battling it out for a spot in the top 8 in a very important game against the Dockers.
Fremantle's horrible form decline has been well-publicised this week and that's not surprising considering they are coming off back-to-back 100-point losses. There is no real reason to think the Dockers will turn this around other than trying to show some kind of pride. Essendon are a better side and can move the ball very quickly and you can see them really cutting the Dockers up. This is another situation where there is a massive line, but I think it's warranted - especially considering the Dockers literally have no true ruck prospect for this week after adding a suspended Sean Darcy to a large list of injured big men. Just a small play, but on current form and the situation the Bombers are in, they should easily take care of business here.
Tip: Essendon at the line (-41.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints (Saturday, August 27th at 3:20pm AEST)
Yet another game which has finals position implications, but by this time on Sunday afternoon the Tigers will know where they finish in the top 8 if they win or lose their game. The Saints, meanwhile, will know their situation as well - likely that they are unable to make the finals unless they absolutely smash the Tigers by an unrealistic margin. If it does end up being the Saints' last game, then we will be saying goodbye to one of the all-time greats Nick Riewoldt.
Interestingly, the best football the Saints have played all year was in Round 16 of this season when they scored 138 points and defeated the Tigers by 67 points. That game was in the comfortable confines of Etihad, whereas this one will be where the Tigers love to play at the MCG. However, the Saints have actually won the last two against the Tigers including one at the MCG in Round 22 of last season. While I think the Tigers win this most of the time, the Saints match-up well against the Tigers and I think they can cover the line, while being a slim chance to snag a victory for Roo.
Tip: St Kilda at the line (+18.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (1.5 units)
West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows (Sunday, August 27th at 2:40pm AEST)
By the time the final game of Round 23 plays out we may still be waiting on the result of the Eagles clash with Adelaide on Sunday afternoon to find out who officially makes the top 8.
If the Eagles don't really have a chance at making it to September, that may change the dynamic of this game all together. Regardless, the Crows have earned the right to be favourites, even with the game at Domain Stadium. The Eagles simply rely too much on too few players to perform to be any chance in games, while the Crows arguably have the most depth in the comp. I can't see the Eagles being any chance in the midfield battle and we know how potent the Crows can be rebounding from the back half. Happy to take the Crows to cover a small line, but would consider re-evaluating depending on the finals situation.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-10.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (2 units)
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