Canterbury Racing Tips for Wednesday, August 16th

Welcome to the first set of comprehensive previews for midweek City racing! We'll be providing in-depth analysis of every race on the card in both Melbourne and Sydney as we march towards the Spring Racing Carnival.

Sydney's card comes to us from Canterbury today with a seven race program. The track is currently rated a Good 3.

We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below.

Canterbury Racing Tips for Wednesday, August 16th

Race 1

Hard to know how tuned up SHOWTIME will be here, but if he's ready to fire then he should be hard to beat here despite carrying 4kg more than any other horse. If you look back through his form from his first preparation, you'll see the horses that beat him were She Will Reign, Gunnison and Doubt I'm Dreaming. They are all very smart, and he's prepared for this with a nice trial win at Rosehill. The weight is the obvious query, but I'll take $4 to see if he can overcome it. SONGLIKE is a very short priced favourite, and too short to back in my opinion. He has finished 2nd in both starts this prep, the latest of which was behind Alizee who is the favourite for the Silver Shadow on the weekend. From barrier 1 he should be able to lead and with 54.5kg he certainly gets a big pull in the weights on Showtime. Great winning chance, but too short for me. MY ZEBRINKA has won four trials leading into this and looks the value in the race at $6.50. I'll be backing him as well as Showtime.

TIP: Showtime / My Zebrinka EW

Race 2

Any of the six runners involved here can win, so I'll be specking the two outsiders that are first up. The first of those is GROUNDBREAK who looked a very promising horse after his first start behind Veranillo, but failed to go on with it in two subsequent starts at Flemington. He resumes here without a trial but he's been gelded. The obvious query is Tommy Berry is the Hawkes stable rider and he chooses to ride Mark Newnham's horse over this horse, leaving Brenton Avdulla to pick up the ride. That suggests the horse may not be good enough to win first up here, but I'll still have something small on at $10.  The second is MOSS TRIP for the Snowden/McEvoy combination. This horse won its only start at Kembla Grange back in April and she had to overcome a bit of trouble on that day. She was sent straight for a spell and resumes here with two trials under the belt. Carries just 53.5kg and any horse at $10 for this stable and jockey combination is worth having something on. I could genuinely make a case for every one of the other horses so it's a very tough race and one that we may be better off just watching and learning from.

TIP: Groundbreak EW / Moss Trip EW (Best Value)

Race 3

UP 'N' ROLLING returns to the track here for the first time since being one of the greatest tragedies beaten in all of horse racing history. I think it's probably the best horse in the race with the greatest scope to go on to better races, but there are a couple of queries. First up last prep he couldn't win over 1600m at Newcastle, and it wasn't until he got to 1900m that he really produced. So the 1550m first up off two soft trials must be some query, but I think he will win anyway. Barrier 1 with Kerrin McEvoy on board is a huge positive in terms of jockey change. Has already been well supported, whether that is due to stable confidence or the fact he's in every black book in Australia is yet to be seen. NOTIO finished off well behind Special Missile last start over this track and distance. Special Missile has now won four straight and won in Saturday grade this past weekend so that form is strong. Has the benefit of race fitness and can win, but will be coming from well off the pace. NO PUSHOVER has returned in great style in the bush, winning her first two starts this campaign by 5.75L combined. Slight query up to this trip in town and also third up from a spell, but she's flying for the new trainer and looks to get an uncontested lead from barrier 3.

TIP: Up 'N' Rolling

Race 4

Tough race. IRITHEA has won both starts this campaign and in quite easy fashion too. Both were over 1200m so the trip suits, as does the good barrier draw in gate 2, and the 3kg claim brings her down to a nice weight. She's led in both of those starts but with a bit of pace on paper here she may be able to take a sit on the leaders' heels. She goes on top at $4.80. SAVAPINSKI will likely lead for the Waterhouse/Bott/Hyeronimus camp. She'll have to do a bit of work early from barrier 10, and with PHOENIX CLAWS and Irithea drawn inside her she risks being caught wide. SEPOY ACHEVA for Waller/Bowman should really relish a hot tempo up front, as will VIENNA ROMANCE. Both should be included in an open race.Big watch on MARABEL first up for Joe Pride. Typically needs one run to fire so perhaps keep an eye on her for her second up run next time. Tough race.

TIP: Irithea

Race 5

Three in particular I'm interested in here. Firstly, I'll be taking on PARLAY VOUS. Her two runs this time in have been reasonable but I'm not convinced they make her a genuine $3.70 chance, and she's since switched stables to John O'Shea. Happy to let her go around. LUBITON resumes here for the first time since finishing down the track in the Group 1 ATC Oaks. She was Group 3 placed over 1600m last prep so the ability is there. The question is whether she will be sharp enough first up with a big weight over 1250m. $3 is the best price around, with most placed at the $2.60 mark, and I'll be backing her as a saver bet at best. I'm going to have something on BRING A SECRET here at $8 each way. He won dominantly first up in Canberra, and last star struck a wet track which he just doesn't go on. Back on to a dry track here at his third run back from a spell, he may be able to give this a shake if the others are vulnerable. The other that could go well is EASTERN LEGEND at double figure odds, though he's never placed from three first up runs.

TIP: Bring A Secret EW

Race 6

Pretty keen on BEACON here who looks a talented horse in the making. Her debut win at Wyong was good and from all reports she has plenty left to come. Kerrin McEvoy is a really strong booking here at 53kg and she should probably be able to slide across from barrier 10 to sit in a prominent position. I think she can go on with it and happy to take $3.20. CUDABEEN can bounce back after failing last start. Bowman takes the ride for the Snowden stable which is a strong hint, and she won her only start over this track and distance. Interested to see PRINCESS POSH resume from a spell. She won her first two starts last prep and has also won a trial leading into this. Her record at the distance is very good and it'd be no surprise to see her win this. AKASAKI gets in well at the weights and can run a good race. Taking on INVIENNA who has a case of second up syndrome with just one placing from six second up starts.

TIP: Beacon (Best Bet)

Race 7

I have queries over a number of these runners and it was hard to land on one but I eventually ended up with WAHNG WAH at $4. Her last two runs have been very good. Two starts ago she finished strongly behind Philosophy and Awoke which is a formline that's already produced a winner. Then last start she won nicely against a decent field over 1800m at Randwick. The query with her today is Canterbury, because she won't want to get too far back, especially from barrier 2. But her form should have her right in the mix again. BRAZEN gets his chance to win today after three relatively luckless starts this prep. 61kg and barrier 10 makes things hard. STREET PURSUIT will lead but is 1550m up to 1900m. TRENCHANT has never placed from seven starts on Good ground. ESTIKRAAJ has been okay without being great his last two. Bowman back on from the good barrier could see him return to form. QUICK DEFENCE can go well. He drops back from two good form races in his past two starts and drops from 60.5kg to 58kg. PLYMOUTH ROAD the value and the blowout third up from a spell. 

TIP: Wahng Wah

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