In the blink of an eye we’re up to the penultimate round of Season 3 of the Big Bash League. Round 7 produces some interesting matches, and by the end of the round, we should have a clearer idea of who will be finals bound this season.
Perth Scorchers vs Adelaide Strikers (Thurs 7:40pm AEDST)
The Scorchers have performed very strongly this season, with their bowling proving the key. They’ve been excellent at the death, led by import Yasir Arafat who is one of the leading wicket takes in the competition, and won them the game in the Super Over against the Sixers. The Scorchers weakness is still their batting, but they’ve been fortunate that Simon Katich has been so consistent.
Katich’s 243 runs puts him second on the competition leading run scorers, and long as he can put in another solid innings or two, and possibly play two finals, then we’re a big chance of landing a $67 winner. Most sports books include finals in this bet so Aaron Finch, Mike Hussey and Ben Dunk are unlikely to play finals while Michael Klinger is injured. Luke Wright and Cameron White (who we also backed at $21) loom as the main threats for the Stars as they will play two finals. Cross your fingers! I would suggest you could lay off at Betfair but there’s just no liquidity in that market so hang on to your hats and hold on for the ride.
The Scorchers will lose Shaun Marsh and Nathan Coulter-Nile to the ODI team, but they might play Pat Cummins. Don’t expect much from him though in his first match back after a long injury lay off.
The Strikers were terrible against the Stars. On paper they look so solid but their batting has failed miserably. Now their best batsman Michael Klinger is out for 1-2 matches with a hamstring, so it’s time for import Alex Hales and young gun Phil Hughes to stand up and show what they are capable of. Interestingly, the Strikers also dropped talented batsman Callum Ferguson, so they’ll have some inexperience in their batting line up, while captain Johan Botha is expected to return to strengthen their depth with bat and ball.
Verdict: This is a really interesting match. Early in the season I would’ve leant to the Strikers, but the Scorchers seem to just be playing far better. A Scorchers win would secure a final and I think that’s enough incentive for a win here. Happy to take the Scorchers at $1.81 on Betfair.
Adelaide Strikers vs Brisbane Heat (Sat 1:45pm AEDST)
The Strikers have an extra game in hand so they back up again with their second match of the round when they host the Brisbane Heat. If the Strikers lose in Perth this becomes an elimination final between these two sides.
The Heat pushed the undefeated Stars at home in their last match, and if they follow their trend of last season, they are starting to get it together at the right time of the year. They have multiple options firing with the bat with Chris Lynn leading the way, although Dan Christian has been called up to the ODI squad which will put more pressure on Luke Pomersbach and Craig Kieswetter to perform at the top of the order. Ben Cutting also needs to bat in the top six. They’ve made the mistake twice now of batting him too low, surely they won’t do it again.
Verdict: A really tough match to pick. The Strikers are favourites at home, but I have to lean towards the Heat as I think they are just in better form and more confident at this stage of the season. The value is with the heat at $2.07 on Sportsbet so happy to take that bet.
Melbourne Renegades vs Sydney Sixers (Sat 7:45pm AEDST)
We wondered in our last article how the Renegades would go without Aaron Finch. Well, he ended up playing, only to get bowled for a duck second ball. The result was a Renegades capitulation that resulted in the Thunder getting their first victory in over 750 days. Not exactly the result the Renegades were looking for. It makes it tough now for the Renegades to reach the finals as they sit second last with a poor net run rate.
The Renegades really need someone else to stand up with the bat. Who will that be? It’s hard to see.
Meanwhile the Sixers continue to deliver and a big win against the Hurricanes sees them sitting comfortable in 3rd spot. They have a good run home with a return match against the Thunder, so are likely to now play finals. The inclusion of Steve Smith has been crucial to their success, with the top order misfiring a little. Brett Lee is leading the way with the ball while Josh Hazelwood is also starting to find his range in this format.
Verdict: The Sixers look to be far too strong against a disappointing Renegades outfit. Back the Sixers at $1.70 on Sportingbet.
Melbourne Stars vs Hobart Hurricanes (Tues 7:40pm AEDST)
After enjoying a nice break, the Stars will finish off their season with two home games as they look to land a perfect season. They were always the team to beat, with incredible talent on paper, and this season they’ve delivered. Even with the loss of a couple of players to the ODI team, they brought in the experienced Rob Quiney who comfortably slipped into the team and brought them home after a scare against the Heat. Jackson Bird has also been a stand out this season as the leading wicket taker for the series, likely booking himself a ticket to South Africa in February in the process.
The Hurricanes continue to tease. They have had moments of brilliance combined with moments of disaster. After a great start, thanks to Tim Paine and Ben Dunk, they were on track to chase down another big score against the Sixers but again it all fell apart. Owais Shah has been hugely disappointing this season, and it’s unlikely we’ll be seeing him in the BBL again following this season. The Hurricanes are just a good batsman short and have really missed Bailey and/or Ponting this season.
Verdict: The Stars should make it seven from seven with a dismantling of the Hurricanes here. There’s no doubt that if the Hurricanes fire, they are a chance, but I wouldn’t be betting against the Stars.
Take note: The above tips are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
