Warwick Farm Racing Tips for Saturday, July 8th

Our attention turns back to Warwick Farm in Sydney this week following the conclusion of the Brisbane Winter Carnival. The track is currently rated a Soft 6 and with good weather predicted I'd expect us to stay around that mark or be upgraded to a Soft 5.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below.

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Warwick Farm Racing Tips for Saturday, 8th of July

Race 1

Very tough two-year-old race to begin with. Found it really hard to assess the different form lines, as well as the different form from Heavy and Good tracks. Really not a race I'm particularly keen to get involved in but I don't mind the price of MANICURE on an each way basis at $13/$3.90. She was desperately unlucky on debut but made amends last start when defeating Sasso Corbaro on a Soft 7 over 1100m at Canterbury. Sasso Corbaro has since come out and run 2nd again, beaten very narrowly on Wednesday, so the form is reasonable. Big watch on LUIZA - I think she may turn out to be the best horse in the race, and she's already won a strong race on debut but it's whether she's come back in the same order and ready to fire first up.

Tip: Manicure EW

Race 2

Another competitive race and I've got it between the top two in the market. Leaning towards NOIRE here who is probably unlucky not to have won her last three starts. She won three back, then endured a horrible run when travelling five-wide without cover to finish 4th, but bounced back last start to win narrowly. She now steps up to 1400m, draws well and gets in 54kg for Tommy Berry. Can win again here around $4.60. Hardest to beat will be the Godolphin horse PHILOSOPHY who just got up on the post first up to win first up. The step up to 1400m is sure to be right up his alley and from the good draw he can very well win again here. Hard to see anything outside those two winning, leaning towards Noire but cover bet on Philosophy.

Tip: Noire

Race 3

SAYED is the best bet on the card here and by a long way. Won a midweek race in Melbourne two starts back over 2100m and then stepped up to Saturday grade over 2000m last start when once again running well to finish 2nd. Returns to Sydney now and this looks a perfect race for him. Steps up to 2400m which should be no issue, draws perfectly, gets Hugh Bowman on board, and has won on Soft ground previously. It's main rival Collateral has never won from eight starts on Soft ground, so while his form looks imperious, it's all been on Heavy ground where he is obviously undefeated. The return to Soft ground and a drying track here suits Sayed better in my opinion, and happy to take the $2.70 on offer.

Tip: Sayed (Best Bet)

Race 4

Think this lies between the top two and I've got COSMIS ENGINE on top. I was really impressed with his last start win after he was heavily supported, and he carried 61kg that day so I see no reason why he can't do it again from the good draw with Bowman on board. That was over this track and distance on a Soft 7 so he'll get very similar conditions here. $3.50 available and that's a decent price I think. GHOSTLY won very well in a small field two starts ago before being bogged down by the Heavy track last start. First go at 1400m here and I'd rather be on Cosmic Engine from barrier 6 with Bowman than Ghostly from barrier 8 with the apprentice Adkins. ARBEITSAM can bounce back but more than happy to oppose it. LA CHICA BELLA could be the value having finished behind Noire last start.

Tip: Cosmic Engine

Race 5

SUNCRAZE is the one to beat here but at $1.75 I will happily take him on with NIC'S VENDETTA. Nic's Vendetta comes into this second up off a good fresh run at Newcastle where he travelled four-wide without cover. Has won two from three when second up from a spell, has a good record at the distance and after the 3kg claim he gets in well weighted. The obvious concern is the 3kg apprentice, who rarely win Saturday city races. $5.50 is worth a spec, though. SALESMAN could be the value here at double figure odds. He won first up from a spell at Goulburn and gets in well here. Draws the inside and can feature in the finish.

Tip: Nic's Vendetta EW

Race 6

Really keen on SPENDING TO WIN here for the Snowden stable and Hugh Bowman. He comes into this first up from a spell with two trial wins under his belt in the lead up. First up last prep he won by just under two lengths in similar grade over this distance at Canterbury. He's never missed a place on Soft ground and despite the horrible barrier I think he's a terrific winning chance. KINGS OF LEON comes off a decent first up run at Wyong and rates highly, while the value looks to be PARLAY VOUS who also comes into this first up and draws well for Corey Brown. LAUNCH CODE can't be dismissed.

Tip: Spending To Win / Parlay Vous EW

Race 7

There's been money for OLD NORTH here but I can;t back him at all confidently and will be happy enough to let him go around without my money. I find it hard to look past Waller's pair here and I've actually got SO WILLIE on top ahead of Liapari. So WIllie drops back to benchmark company after racing in Open company at his past couple, and he did win over this distance in similar grade three starts ago. That was also on Soft ground, and the horse he beat has gone on to win his next three starts. He's got a good record at the distance, has won his only start at the track and distance, will do no work from barrier 1 and is weighted well enough to win here. There's $5 available and with some of the knocks I have on his main rivals I think that's a reasonable price. Liapari is obviously hard to beat over this distance but I have concerns over his record on Soft ground, with no wins from six starts. ZAYAM ran well last start but he always runs well second up and then fails third up from a spell. He's never placed from four starts when third up so I'll happily take him on, while GOLD AMBITION is probably still looking for longer. HEAVENLY ANNA could pose a danger stepping up to 1600m for the first time.

Tip: So Willie

Race 8

Hard to ignore YOUR WAY here who has won 7 of 9 career starts. She's undefeated first up and has trialled well twice leading into this. Has won at the distance, won on soft ground, won in this grade and draws well. The only query is the 60kg first up from a spell but her class may get her over the line anyway. The stablemate SANGIOVESE may be the biggest danger. He continues to run well this prep and was unlucky last start hen hampered by a riderless horse. HOT HIT is very consistent and will find the lead from barrier 3 fairly easily. Whether he quite has the class to hang on at the business end of the race is the question, and I just think there's one or two that will get the better of him. I CAN ROCK would be a chance on a Good track but with no wins from six starts on Soft ground he is hard to recommend. 

Tip: Your Way

Race 9

Pretty keen on MEINER FRECCIA on an eachway basis here at $8.50 and $3.10 the place. He comes into this first up from a fairly long spell, but has had the two trials leading into this. His first up record is very good with two wins and two placings from five starts, he's undefeated over the distance and has won his only start at the track. He draws wide and carries a big weight first up but he's got Brenton Avdulla on board which is a positive booking. From the wide barrier he could go back or forward, he's won doing both so that doesn't particular concern me. That's the way I'll go in an open race to end the day.

Tip: Meiner Freccia EW (Best Value)