Hi folks, the man, the myth, Drop Punta is out for a few weeks on a well deserved holiday after a gruelling first half of the AFL season. I’m “PuntingInDanger” and I’ll be taking over for the next few rounds in an attempt to live up to DP’s winning ways. Massive round of footy for at least 4 or 5 clubs with finals hopes on the line. We take a look at every game and give our preview and tips for Round 16 of the AFL below.
2017 AFL Round 16 Betting Tips
Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, 7.50pm AEST)
The Crows were almost upset again on the weekend but managed to narrowly escape the MCG with a 12-point win over the Blues. It makes for two really shaky games in a row with the loss to Hawthorn in Round 14. They’ll welcome the return to Adelaide Oval and will be wanting to make a statement here against the Dogs moving into the final third of the season.
The injury list for the Crows looks quite reasonable at the moment with just Charlie Cameron and Tom Lynch questionable for this game. The same cant be said about the Bulldogs, however, who are set to be missing Marcus Adams, Travis Cloke, Lin Jong with Bob Murphy, Tom Liberatore, Tom Boyd and Liam Picken all questionable.
Regardless of the Crow’s recent woes, Adelaide has still been one of the hardest places to travel to all year, and with the Dogs so banged up at the moment it’s hard to picture them returning with a win. They were well and truly outplayed by the Eagles on home soil on the weekend which has us thinking the Crows should be too strong here.
TIP: Adelaide 1-39 - $2.10 at Sportsbet
Hawthorn vs Greater Western Sydney (Saturday, 1.45pm AEST)
The Hawks have won their last two games against quality opponents and seem to have recaptured some of the form that had them in the finals last year. The promising sign for Hawks fans now is that their team’s season is on the line in every game they play and if there’s one team that’s great at stepping up when it counts it’s the Hawks.
They’ll have arguably the hardest test in the league on the weekend, however, when they come up against the Giants fresh off an exhilarating draw against the Cats on the weekend. For the Giants to even be competitive against arguably the next best team in the comp given their injury list is a credit to their talent and depth. Star midfielders Stephen Coniglio, Ryan Griffen, Tim Taranto and Brett Deledio will once again be out of action against the Hawks.
If it was up in Sydney you’d have to side with the Giants by a comfortable margin here but the Hawks have played well down in Tassy in recent times (except for the Saints game earlier this season). You still have to give the edge to the Giants but I think the bookies are on the right track with setting the line at just 15.
TIP: Greater Western Sydney 1-39 - $2.10 at Sportsbet
Collingwood vs Essendon (Saturday, 2.10pm AEST)
The game of the round sees old rivals in the Pies and Bombers square off at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. It’s always a good game when these two foes play and this promises to be no exception. Both the Essendon and Collingwood seasons are on the brink of disaster after losses to Brisbane and Hawthorn on the weekend and the Pies coach, Nathan Buckley could be out the door with another loss here.
Essendon were victorious when the two sides met in the ANZAC Day clash earlier in the year and it seems like the two sides have almost come full circle since then. Both hit a purple patch and won multiple games in a row but Collingwood have lost their last three and Essendon their last two. Not much to report on the injury front as both teams boast one of the best looking casualty list in the league.
The two teams current form makes it a tough game to pick and the fact that it’s Essendon v Collingwood makes it near on impossible. The Dons have arguably been the better side in their two recent losses to Sydney and Brisbane while the Pies haven’t looked like it for almost a month now. Have to give the slight edge to Essendon here.
TIP: Essendon -2.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Sydney vs Gold Coast (Saturday, 4.35pm AEST)
Sydney decimated the Demons in every aspect of the game on Friday night and look far and away the form team in the comp at the moment. You’d be smiling now if you took the 151/1 odds for them to win the flag after starting 0-6 because they seem to have returned to the form that saw them reach the 2016 Grand Final.
The Suns looked impressive on the weekend against the Roos with Gary Ablett coming back into the line-up for his 300th. They were thoroughly outplayed by the Saints the week before though which brings some doubt into their ability to play on the road.
Sydney should welcome the return home here and with the Suns still battling some injury issues in the likes of Aaron Hall, Pearce Hanley and Kade Kolodjashnij we think the Swans should be too strong.
TIP: Sydney -38.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Brisbane vs Geelong (Saturday, 7.25pm AEST)
Along with the Swans and Suns, probably the only games of the round that you can even contemplate pencilling in as wins. Geelong looked on top of their game for 95% of the match against the Giants on the weekend. They were able to let GWS creep back into the game and force a draw, however, their performance in Sydney was extremely admirable, especially without Joel Selwood.
The Lions have been the talk of the town over the past few weeks. They put up a stellar performance against Fremantle back in Round 12, were admirable against in Round 15 and captured arguably the best comeback win of the year against the Bombers on the weekend. While their best is still a long way from the likes of the Cats, Lions fans have plenty to be excited about.
Cats have the perfect mix of experience and youth at the moment and shouldn’t be phased by the trip to Brisbane. Patrick Dangerfield is, once again, looking like the the player that won the 2016 Brownlow in a landslide and with the return of Joel Selwood the Cats should win comfortably.
TIP: Geelong 40+ - $2 at Sportsbet
St Kilda vs Richmond (Saturday, 7.25pm AEST)
Another extremely interesting game here as the Saints and Tigers face off for the first time in 2017. Two teams who pride themselves on forward pressure and tackling will play on the small Etihad Stadium ground in what promises to be a low scoring, defensive affair.
An underrated factor of the Saints season so far has been the play of defensive recruits Jake Carlisle and Nathan Brown. The Saints have been able to consistently hold their opponents to low scores throughout the season, their problem is scoring at the other end. It creates a fascinating matchup because Richmond have had the same problem all season. The two teams sit 12th and 13th for points scored on the season so far so this one could come down to who takes the chances they get.
The Saints had enough of the ball to create nine more scoring shots than the Dockers on the weekend but were only victorious by nine points due to poor accuracy. They will be glad to be playing back at Etihad and if they can kick relatively straight I think they could upset a Richmond team that looked shaky for three quarters against the Power last weekend.
TIP: St Kilda +11.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
North Melbourne vs Fremantle (Sunday, 1.10pm AEST)
Not exactly sure of the reasoning behind North Melbourne opening as $1.63 favourites here, thought it would be a much more even spread than that considering North Melbourne has lost their last three and looked dreadful in two of them against the Saints and the Suns. Freo put up a hard fight against the Saints over in Perth as Michael Walters stamped himself as one of the most exciting young players in the league with 28 touches and 6 goals.
They haven’t played well in Melbourne all year and have won just six games on the season so far but the Dockers have been competitive in many more games. North Melbourne will almost be going into tank mode here with just four wins on the season and we think an upset, or at least a close game could be on the cards here as Freo still have something to play for, just 2 wins out of 8th spot.
TIP: Fremantle +8.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Carlton vs Melbourne (Sunday, 3.20pm AEST)
Melbourne will be in desperate need of a bounce back game after being pants by Sydney on Friday night. They seemed to have undone all of the good work they did in the previous two weeks against the Dogs and Eagles in one night as they looked undisciplined and outclassed against Sydney.
They’ll get a much-needed respite against the Blues this week which should be an easier challenge, however, they’ll be without Thomas Bugg through suspension while Jack Watts, Jeff Garlett, Nathan Jones and Christian Salem are all under injury clouds.
The Blues were valiant once again in their loss to the Crows on the weekend but it’s been too many honourable losses for them throughout the year so far. We think there should be another one here.
TIP: Melbourne 1-39 - $2.10 at Sportsbet
West Coast vs Port Adelaide (Sunday, 4.40pm AEST)
Another tough game to pick here as the Power travel to Perth to take on the Eagles. Port Adelaide looked in control of their game against Richmond on the weekend until the tigers steamrolled them in the final quarter. The same almost happened to the Eagles against the Western Bulldogs but they were able to stem the flow and hold on for the victory.
It's been a season of teams getting wins in places they shouldn’t and while all signs point to this being a comfortable home win for the Eagles, the power’s inconsistency suggests they could be on for an upset here. The Power haven’t lost consecutive games since they lost to GWS and Adelaide in back to back games in Round 3 and 4 and we expect them to bounce back here against West Coast.
TIP: Port Adelaide to win - $2.40 at Ladbrokes
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