What can I say about last week that hasn't already been said? Upsets galore had people waiting until Sunday to get their first correct tip. The results were so far out of left field that the 'kiss of death' dominated the newspaper tipping. Fortunately for us, a big losing week was saved by backing some underdogs at the line. Let's see how this week plays out as I offer my 2017 AFL Round 8 preview and betting tips.
2017 AFL Round 8 Betting Tips
West Coast Eagles vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, May 12th at 6:10pm AWST)
The last time the Bulldogs made their way to Domain Stadium to take on West Coast they were given no chance to win. It was last year's 2nd elimination final and it was going to be too tough for the Dogs to progress any further. But the future premiers stood up and won by 47 points. No doubt the loss will be fresh in the Eagles' mind as they host the Bulldogs in a Round 8 Friday night thriller.
Last year's finals win for the Bulldogs was truly an anomaly when you consider that is the only win in the last nine trips to Domain Stadium. That victory will no doubt give them some belief in themselves, but it was only in Round 3 of this season that the Dogs were defeated by the Dockers at this ground. The biggest positive the Dogs will take into this game is the fact that they keep 'getting the job done' every week, no matter how poorly they start games or seemingly how far behind they fall - highlighted by their 32-point turn around against the Tigers last week. They do need to work on their centre clearances where they are ranked last in the comp, but their pressure around the ground (ranked 1st for tackles) makes it tough for teams to play free-flowing football.
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Before last week's rousing victory over the Power, West Coast were receiving a lot of criticism. That victory would have served as a bit of a steadier and they will no doubt be happy to get back onto Domain. I certainly think the Eagles deserve to be favourites, especially considering their potent forward line which the Bulldogs will have trouble with. They will also face the Dogs without Jake Stringer, but there is a chance the Dogs get some key players back - most importantly Mitch Wallis who has dominated in the VFL since returning from his broken leg. I'm leaning towards taking the Dogs plus the points, but prefer the look of the either team market at similar odds. The Dogs have shown they don't give up on games and only one of their games this season has seen a margin (win or loss) of more than 24 points - a 32-point victory against the Lions. I can't see the Dogs dominating the Eagles at Domain, but I don't think it will be a blowout the other way either. Expecting a great Friday night battle.
Tip: Either Team by Under 24.5 Points - $1.80 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions (Saturday, May 13th at 1:45pm AEST)
After playing abysmal footy for a majority of the season so far, the Hawks surprised us for the second time this season with a victory over the Demons last week. They will be hoping to make it back-to-back victories as they take on the Lions in Tasmania on Saturday afternoon.
The Hawks head to Tasmania for the second time this season after being demoralised by the Saints in Launceston a few weeks ago. Tassie is meant to be a 'fortress' for the Hawks, so they need to make a statement against the Lions in Round 8. Clearly Australian bookmakers think that's what's going to happen with the line set at 42 points. Past clashes between these two teams would suggest that line is actually fairly generous considering they Hawks have won the last 5 against the Lions by an average of 58 points. All those games, however, were during the Hawthorn domination era and they certainly aren't the same team this year. There were great signs from the Hawks last week, but it's too hard to know sort of performance you are going to get from them at the moment. Brisbane have struggled the last couple of weeks and it's a big trip to Tassie, so I do lean towards the Hawks being able to smash them, but think you just have to sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, May 13th at 1:45pm AEST)
Both these teams come into this game brimming with confidence after the Saints defeated the Giants last week and the Blues overcame the Magpies. And while their win-loss record is only one game apart, the Saints are almost five-goal favourites and should take their record to 5-3 this week.
St Kilda's victory over the Giants last week was perhaps overshadowed by North Melbourne's shock win over the Crows, but we can't underestimate how important that win for the Saints was. Plenty of punters have thought the Saints are thereabouts and in the hunt for a finals run this season, but after last week they know they can beat any team in the comp. The important thing now is to play their best footy every week and especially in games against lesser competition such as the Blues. While I think the Saints deserve to be favourites, the Blues have shown enough to be relatively competitive in this game. Their defensive efforts have been the most impressive, highlighted a fortnight ago when they kept Lance Franklin very quiet and quelled the Swans overall scoring ability. I can see this being one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.
Tip: St Kilda by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (2 units)
GWS Giants vs Collingwood Magpies (Saturday, May 13th at 4:35pm AEST)
The Giants have surprisingly never defeated the Magpies, but that should change at Spotless Stadium this Saturday afternoon as the Giants look to bounce back after a disappointing lost last week.
The word that springs to mind when it comes to Collingwood is 'inconsistent' - and I mean that week to week and within a game. Two weeks ago they were fantastic against the Cats and some thought they had perhaps turned a corner. However, they came out last week and were horrible against the Blues. If they repeat last week's performance, it's going to be a very depressing trip to Spotless this week. If the Pies are any chance of being competitive this week they need to find a way to score. They are ranked equal last for goals scored this season and will find it tough on the road against a team who can be very damaging on the scoreboard. I can see the Pies really struggling against the Giants who should bounce back after their loss last week.
Tip: GWS Giants at the line (-29.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats (Saturday, May 13th at 7:25pm AEST)
The Cats had a real chance to head into Round 8 undefeated, but were ultimately very disappointing in the last two weeks with losses against the Suns and Pies. They have a great opportunity to get back in the winner's circle against a struggling Bombers.
The Bombers are well and truly looking tired. It seems a combination of the returning players struggling and the fact they had to play three games in 13 days due to the Anzac Day clash, has really had an effect. They were brave in the first half against the Dockers last week, but ended up fading in the second half. They won't be helped with another 6-day break either. Despite their poor form, you have to think the Cats can score an easy win here. The Bombers really struggle taking the ball inside 50 at the best of times, so the Cats should punish them on the rebound, while if they can get going inside their own 50, it could be a long day for the Bombers. Happy to take the Cats at the line here.
Tip: Geelong at the line (-20.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, May 13th at 7:10pm AEST)
After talks of having the greatest start to a season in history, the Crows were brought back to earth by the Kangaroos last week. Likewise, the Demons lost a game they should have won with a horrible performance against the Hawks. This one will be all about how each team responds.
The Crows were bound to lose a game eventually this season, but it looked unlikely it was going to come at the hands of the Roos and even more unlikely that when it happened, they would be demoralised. They played some of the worst football you will ever see in the 1st quarter last week, but that's not to take anything away from the Roos who simply trounced them. The most damning stat from the Crows last week is that they lost the tackle count in the 1st quarter 9-20 and that was while having far less time with ball in hand. They played much better footy for the rest of the game, but it was too little too late. If we take that as a blip on the radar and assume they go back to playing the kind of footy we expect of them (which is likely at Adelaide Oval), then they should be able to easily dismantle the Demons. They possess far too much firepower for the Demons to handle and while Rory Sloane was able to be contained last week, you have to think he will also bounce back. The one query I have with this game is that the line is set at 6 goals. While I do think the Crows respond to last week's poor effort, we now know they aren't indestructible. Melbourne have a tendency to stand up in big games like this too. I'll be having a small play on the Crows at the margin.
Tip: Adelaide Crows by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.50 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers (Sunday, May 14th at 1:10pm AEST)
The Dockers head across to the MCG on Sunday to take on the Tigers in what should be one of the more competitive games of Round 8.
It seems like a long time ago that the Tigers were the undefeated darlings of the 2017 AFL season. I suppose two weeks is a long time in footy, but let's not forget the Tigers' back-to-back losses came against Adelaide and the Bulldogs. They also probably should have defeated the Bulldogs and can be somewhat forgiven for getting dismantled at Adelaide Oval. I say all this because I'm surprised the bookies have only set the line at -16.5 points against Fremantle at the MCG. Apart from a win against the Bulldogs at Domain and a close victory against an undermanned Demons, the Dockers haven't been overly impressive. They ran away from the Bombers last week, but that was at Domain and I have already said it appears like the Bombers are very tired at the moment. With their young side, Fremantle just need too much to go right and too many of their veteran players need to play out of their skin. I think they have simply overachieved so far this season and while they have certainly shown promising signs, games like this in Melbourne will surely be too tough. Like the Tigers at the line here and probably enough to make it my favourite bet of the week.
Tip: Richmond at the line (-16.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2.5 units)
Gold Coast Suns vs Port Adelaide Power (Sunday, May 14th at 1:15pm AEST)
The AFL is heading to China this weekend. It almost sounds like a joke, but that's where Gold Coast Suns and Port Adelaide will be playing their Round 8 clash. How successful our sport will be in China remains to be seen, but there are clearly a tonne of unknowns when it comes to this game. Coach Rodney Eade has been in the media all week talking about the problems around travelling to the game - not only because it will end up taking 21 hours to get there, but also because not all their players will be flying in the more comfortable conditions of business class (which may sound like whinging, but when you have to go perform sport at an elite level and you are a tall athlete, economy class is going to be brutal). I do lean towards Port Adelaide to win this game and possibly at the 1-39 margin, I just think you have to sit this out. A lot can go wrong in the preparations for this game and who knows which team will be better suited to the conditions. Just too many unknowns.
Tip: No Bet.
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans (Sunday, May 14th at 4:40pm AEST)
The Roos got the monkey off their back two weeks ago with a win against the Suns. They were playing okay football and had to win eventually, so it wasn't the biggest shock. Winning back-to-back games might not even be the biggest surprise from a team who played finals last year. Defeating the premiership favourites (not to mention scoring 64-0 in the 1st quarter ) was, however, a complete surprise. Now they need to see if they can back it up against the Swans on Sunday afternoon.
The Swans also come into Round 8 with a bit of extra confidence after getting their first win of the season last week - though it was 'only' a win against the Lions compared to the Crows. The more important aspect of last week's effort was that the Swans played closer to their best than they have all year. Lance Franklin kicked eight goals and while captain Josh P Kennedy had another quiet outing, Luke Parker and Dan Hannebery were both influential. If these players can all fire up again, the Roos will have it tough this week - especially considering they will be missing Jarrad Waite who dominated the Crows with 6 goals. The Bookies have this one as a tight game and I agree. Full credit to what North Melbourne were able to do against the Crows, but they really did look far more damaging with Jarrad Waite fired up and clearly love to play in Tasmania. After last week, we can't be surprised if the Roos win any games this season, but I just give the slight edge to the Swans.
Tip: Swans by 1-39 points - $2.60 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
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