After a very interesting five days of football over ANZAC weekend, it's back to a regular schedule in Round 6. This week's action is bookended by two intriguing games with the Giants v Bulldogs kicking things off before Adelaide v Richmond as the final game on Sunday afternoon. Find out how we see it all playing out with our 2017 AFL Round 6 preview and betting tips.
2017 AFL Round 6 Betting Tips
GWS Giants vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, April 28th at 7:50pm AEST)
Last year's preliminary final between the Dogs and Giants was arguably the best game of the year and now the Giants get a chance for revenge with a Round 6 clash in Canberra.
Despite both teams being 4-1 and sitting 4th (GWS) and 5th on the ladder (5th), there is absolutely no doubt that the Giants are in much better form than the Dogs. Outside of their Round 1 loss, the Giants have breezed through their next four and never really looked like needing to take it into top gear. The Dogs, meanwhile, have had to work extremely hard for every win and looked horrible in their convincing loss to the Dockers.
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No doubt the most intriguing aspect of this game will be the midfield battle. The usual suspects at GWS have been in hot form, but none more so than Josh Kelly who has taken his game to another level. In last year's preliminary final, it was the Bulldogs who came out on top in this department - especially with stoppages around the ground. However, this season so far has seen the Giants with the best clearance record in the comp, while the Dogs have uncharacteristically struggled in second last. Considering the Giants firepower up forward - they average a 3rd best 113 points per game - the Dogs will have to win the midfield battle if they are any chance in this game. Huge plus for the Dogs that Giant co-captain and best defensive player Phil Davis will be out. Expecting a ferocious game after last year's prelim and the Giants should make this their 8th win in 9 games in Canberra.
Tip: GWS Giants by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
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Hawthorn Hawks vs St Kilda Saints (Saturday, April 29th at 1:45pm AEST)
Football opinions change very quickly. Two weeks ago everyone had ridden the Hawks off and were making ridiculous comments about Alistair Clarkson's coaching job. Then the Hawks defeated the Eagles by almost 10 goals last week and now we don't know exactly what to think about the Hawks. We should find out a lot more against the Saints this week.
There aren't many venues that seemingly play as much of a role in results as Launceston and the Hawks. They have won 19 straight and now look to make it 20 on the back of that confidence-boosting victory over the Eagles last week. It's a scary prospect for the Saints who come into this after a disappointing loss to the Cats.
Betting wise, I think this is the toughest game of the round. How much of last week's win for the Hawks was the Eagles simply not being able to play at the MCG? Or maybe some of their veterans finally dusted off some of the cobwebs and are back to play the footy we know they can. On what we've seen this year, however, I lean towards taking the Saints. But I think I just have to sit this one out and see which Hawthorn shows up.
Tip: No Bet.
Carlton Blues vs Sydney Swans (Saturday, April 29th at 2:10pm AEST)
Not many thought the Swans would be coming into Round 6 winless, but that's where is stands as they take on the Blues at the MCG on Saturday. Their confidence is at an all-time low, so now is the time to gain a little of it back.
Coach Brendon Bolton and the Blues will be having nightmares about Buddy Franklin in the lead up to this one. Buddy has kicked 21 goals in the last four against the Blues and while he hasn't the best start to the season (compared to his standards anyway) he is still finding the scoreboard and looking dangerous. The Swans will need Buddy to hit the scoreboard considering they are averaging only 75 points per game so far this season - which is only 8 points more than the bottom ranked Blues 67. There are reports Marc Murphy may have an injured knee, so watch that closely, while a few other Blues like Bryce Gibbs are looking sore. Regardless, I think the Swans should bounce back and win this game easily. The Blues have been playing their hand face-open, showing us they are focused more on blooding young players than winning games. Some of the last week's returning Swans like Tippett will be better for the run and hopefully the likes of Keiran Jack being out will actually be a blessing in disguise considering he has looked like dead weight the first few weeks. Happy to take the Swans to win at the big margin here.
Tip: Swans at the line (-35.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, April 29th at 4:35pm AEST)
Port Adelaide may only have a moderate 3-2 record, but the only teams that have lost to are the two best teams in the comp in the Crows and the Giants. They head to Brisbane on Saturday afternoon and should make it their fourth win of the season.
The Lions have definitely improved compared to last season, but their results aren't showing that. They were good in patches against the Dogs last week, but ended up losing by 32 points. Their five goal lead during that game was also deceiving considering the Dogs had more scoring shots than the Lions at every point of the game. While they look improved and don't look like they are going to be completely smashed like they did last year, their average losing margin so far this season has still be just shy of six goals.
The Lions should be commended for being able to convert their lowly inside 50 stats into something somewhat respectable, but this week is going to be telling considering the Power are the top ranked inside 50 team in the comp. Brisbane's defensive efforts will be the difference between a five goal loss and a complete blowout. The Lions have conceded an average of 111 points so far this season and even with the game at the Gabba, i can see the Power being able to easily put up a big score. The last time the two met at the Gabba was late last year and the Power won by almost 100 points. The margin won't be so big this time around, but I like the Power to cover the line.
Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-29.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, April 29th at 7:35pm AEST)
It would be tough to be a North Melbourne supporter at the moment - not just because they are 0-5, more because they have had legitimate chances to win at least three of those games, but have blown it in the last quarter. They will be looking to forget that and hopefully snag a victory against the Suns on Saturday night.
It may not be a 'blockbuster' game, but this is one of the more interesting of Round 6. The Suns have had a relatively respectable start to the 2016 season with a couple of solid wins. Gary Ablett has been playing great football after a slow start, while we know what Tom Lynch is capable of up forward. If he can get a hold of Robbie Tarrant and kick a bag, this is Gold Coast's game to lose. The Suns midfield will give him plenty of usage if they can continue their form as the number 1 centre clearance side - especially against North Melbourne who struggle in this department. I wouldn't be surprised if the Roos get the first win of the year, but with the Suns getting a two-goal headstart, I can't look past them. Their midfield simply outclasses North and even if Tarrant can contain Lynch, the Suns have plenty of other options to kick a goal.
Tip: Gold Coast at the line (+13.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units)
West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, April 29th at 6:10pm AWST)
The Western Derby sees two teams on the opposite end of the confidence spectrum - the Dockers have it all with three huge wins on the trot, while the Eagles are facing extreme scrutiny for their loss to the Hawks at the MCG last week. It's going to be interesting to see how this one plays out.
There is no doubt the Eagles deserve to be favourites here, but there is plenty to like about the Dockers and we know these derbies are often hotly-contested battles. Overall, however, the Eagles should be able to outclass the Dockers. Their midfield is superior even without Sam Mitchell in the side (though he may return this week as a bonus), while the Dockers will sorely miss Stephen Hill this weekend. Aaron Sandilands is playing his 250th game this weekend and he will play an important role against a West Coast side that has been struggling with Jonathan Giles and Nathan Vardy their only choices at the moment. The young Dockers have been commendable, but I think this one looks too tough.
Tip: West Coast the line (-16.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (2.5 units)
Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, April 30th at 1:10pm AEST)
Both the Demons and Bombers go into this game on short breaks after tough ANZAC games, so it will be interesting to see who recovers better. Either way, we should be in for a cracking game between two sides trying to take their game to the next level.
In many ways this is a battle of the midfield and generally you have to say the Demons have the Bombers covered in this department. However, with the sidelined Max Gawn's backup ruckmen Jake Spencer now also out with injury, how do Melbourne cover for this loss? The Bombers, meanwhile, have continued to impress, especially in front of goals where they have scored over 100 points three times compared to averaging just 65 points per game last season. This is also in spite of ranking last in the competition for inside 50s. Melbourne's ruck woes will be the biggest test here and while I hate to underestimate the Bombers again, I have to give the edge to the Demons. Jordan Lewis returns to the side, which is a huge plus and as long as the likes Jesse Hogan can be effective with Melbourne's inside 50 usage, I think they should win.
Tip: Melbourne at the line (-1.5) - $1.97 at Bet365 (1.5 units)
Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies (Sunday, April 30th at 3:20pm AEST)
I have been guilty of overrating the Magpies so far in the 2017 AFL season. I think I placed far too much credence on their quality midfield and failed to see just how poorly they were using the ball on the rebound and heading inside 50. While I still don't think they are close to the worst team in the comp, it's clearly going to be a very tough year that's not going to get any easier in Round 6 against the Cats.
In contrast to the Magpies, the Cats have had a great start to the year. They were very impressive against the Saints last week and should be able to easily take care of the Pies this Sunday considering they face an opponent on a 5-day break. The magpies seemingly haven't been able to run out games at the best of times this season, so i'm not sure how they are going to cope with such a quick turnaround after a tough ANZAC Day game. Captain Scott Pendlebury has clearly been nursing a bit of an injury all year, so no doubt he will find it tougher than almost anyone on the field. The midfield battle will still be interesting, but it's the Cats superior rebounding (Zach Tuohy and Andrew Mackie are in great form) and usage inside 50 that will be telling. Expecting this line to move a few points before the weekend, so jump on.
Tip: Cats at the line (-27.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers (Sunday, April 30th at 4:10pm AEST)
It's been a long time since we have seen Richmond near the top of the ladder with zero losses and they will be desperate to go 6-0 for the first time since 1995. However, they will have to get through the Crows who have looked like the absolute benchmark team in the competition so far this season - and at Adelaide Oval nonetheless.
It's starting to sounds like a broke record, but Adelaide simply have the most potent forward line in the league. So potent, in fact, that their current average is the second highest in history. Richmond hasn't had to deal with such firepower so far this year, so this will be a real test for Alex Rance and co. Adelaide also come into this game with two extra day's break compared to the Tigers. Throw these two facts into the ring with the game being at Adelaide Oval and that's why the Crows are five goal favourites. I do think the Crows will win, but that line looks a little high considering they have a few injury woes. Richmond will be desperate to show they are the real deal this week, so expecting this to be closer than the bookies suggest.
Tip: Adelaide by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.30 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
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